Good Morning!
I hope all is well for you and yours. I made the drive to Iowa on Thursday night, as I am on Market to Market this weekend. We recorded that in Johnson, which is essentially in Des Moines. I saw at least a dozen combines rolling as I drove west on I-80, with some in soybeans and some in corn. When I left home, there were very few fields that hadn’t been harvested, but the farther north and west I got, there more acres were left to get to. Around home, we received +2 in. of rain on Friday into Saturday, but by Monday, we saw combines running and fieldwork getting done. For us, the rainfall certainly makes fieldwork more productive as this ground is working much better. We’re getting our dry fertilizer on (at lower rates) and should finish fieldwork this coming week. On the home front, I’ve got one playing travel softball right now, one that just started Jr. High basketball, and with 4H, youth-group, etc., our plate is just as full as it was during harvest. It sure has been nice to get it done so quickly, though, as I don’t have much in the way of travel for a bit. I appreciate all of the feedback. Keep it coming and stay safe.
The podcast on Beck’s YouTube live continues to evolve. I appreciate those who have reached out with items to discuss and questions for me. If you have specifics, please let me know and I’ll tackle them. Here is the link for more info on the AgMarket app. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0
The corn market continued some upward movement while beans had an even better week. Renewed optimism about a trade deal as Trump and Xi prepare to meet was likely part of the rally. While he could gain some friends with a trade deal for beans, he sure irritated the cattle producers as he took credit for the rally in beef prices this past week. Outside markets were again active on the week and were trading as such heading into the weekend.
CORN
December 2025 corn saw some buying, but nothing too exciting. On Friday, December settled at $4.23 ¼, down 4 ¾. This was 4 ¼ off the high and ¼ off the low. December rallied just ½ cent for the week. Harvest has advanced, but most estimated it’s a bit behind the normal pace. As I said, I saw a ton of folks running on my drive to Des Moines, so I know there are several acres still out there. While corn fared ok on the week, as I’ll share below, the cash prices in some areas have rallied due to better basis levels. I know other areas are widening as space for some is getting limited. Overall, the corn market seems reluctant to move much lower, but it hits a brick wall anytime December moves close to $4.30. For those who need some cash and know they’re going to sell corn, I’d keep that in the back of their mind. On new crop, it would seem to me some support or a rally would be needed to secure the big acres we need to satisfy demand. I’m looking for a sideways type of market for now, with some chance for price appreciation if we see a trade deal with China, and as we get into more of an acreage discussion.
DEMAND
Corn demand is still unknown on the export side, although we get inspections to start the week, and they’ve stayed at strong levels. Ethanol grind saw a big jump of 3.5 mb to 107.5 MB. Stocks were again lower. Basis was improving:
CASH CORN
Cash prices were strong on the week versus a week ago in the markets I follow. Given a small bump on the board, the basis improvements helped cash prices improve noticeably. What we’re seeing in our area is end-users trying to get their hands on the final bushels. Any time we see harvest ending, we will get that push for bushels, especially in a year like this when we’ve seen so many bushels not go to town.
Given the carry in the market, many have socked away both corn and beans anywhere they could store it, whether in bins, bags, or sheds. I’m not sure if the basis improvement has as much to do with lower yields as it does with growers doing what they can to take advantage of the carry and basis improvements. However, I still think we’re looking at a crop closer to 181-183 Bu./A., so production should move lower once the USDA gets reports to us again. The issue I’ve talked about several times is that they likely have demand propped up way too high on feed and residual usage. If they drop production, we can expect a drop in usage as well. I don’t see cash rallying substantially until we see some help from, hopefully, a talk about the need for more corn acres. We need beans to keep rallying-and if they do, it should be supportive.
2026 CORN
December 2026 corn ended the week at $4.59 ½, up 2. December 2026 continues to flirt with $4.60 as new crop seems to have a little more support than old. While we continue to see support for 2026 corn, I’m still not in the camp of doing much personally. I like getting some worst-case scenarios locked in above $4.70, should we see that rally occur. It’s not far off, so those of you who want to put a strategy in place should reach out so we can help you. I like locking a floor in while having some upside. Given demand is as strong as we’ve ever had, any hiccups in production anywhere in the world over the next few months should see renewed interest in owning corn. On the flip side, if we don’t see weather issues and the US grower plants 95 ma or more, 2026 could be even tougher than 2025 has been due to these sky-high input costs. Given the uncertainty, putting some floors in place with room to run to the upside might be a good thing to consider.
Corn Market Theme: The corn market is stable at this point. While we’re not rallying the board much, it’s not going down. With such big production likely to be verified at some point, we should consider rewarding the rally if we can make these levels for cash corn work for our operations.
SOYBEANS
Beans were strong on the week once again. On Friday, November beans settled down 3 at $10.41 ¾. This was 3 ¾ off the high and 1 off the low. Beans rallied 22 ¼ cents on the week. December meal settled 13.1 higher on the week at 294.1, while soy oil ended the week at 50.27, down .86. This past week, the focus of the market was more optimistic based on President Trump appearing to prepare to talk to President Xi from China. The on again-off-again trade talks are set for this coming weekend, so the market is hopeful something good comes of that. Given the president’s remarks of late, it’s tough to know just what that may look like, but any sort of commitment from the Chinese on soy or soy product purchases would be a win. Given strong demand from other countries, business from China should be well-received. While I’m in a wait-and-see approach for now, taking advantage of the recent rally is certainly a personal decision. If these prices work for you, it may be wise to let a few beans go, given the good rally of late.
DEMAND
As with corn, we had no export sales announced this past week due to the government shutdown. Inspections at the start of the week were impressive and given the fact that US beans are quite competitive on the world market, exports have performed better than expected. Basis was improving.
CASH SOYBEANS
Cash beans were higher on the week. With the board rally and basis improvements in many areas, cash bean values were well above the levels we saw just one week ago. Again, in the areas that are done or finishing up, we’re seeing processors go after these beans as they obviously didn’t get the ownership they were hoping for. In areas where harvest is still going, you likely didn’t see basis improvements, but it goes to show that holding onto those beans, if possible, can pay dividends. While action this week was positive, I don’t think we can expect similar increases in cash values without some sort of trade deal. It seems the market is assuming we will get some positive news out of the upcoming meeting between Xi and Trump, but as we should have learned by now, there are no guarantees. I don’t mind a person letting go of a few of these beans in those instances where your cash price is 30-50 cents better than it was. I know we all have cash needs, so if you can make these prices work, getting a portion priced isn’t a bad idea. With that being said, if we get a trade deal and/or any weather issues out of South America, beans have a chance at continuing this rally.
2026 SOYBEANS
November 2026 beans settled at $10.80 ½, up 16 ¼ on the week. With this 2026 bean market, I’m still in the camp of giving it time to see if we can settle above $11 one of these days. On a move like that, I’m willing to hedge some risk, but I’d sure like to have some flex on any sale I make. With South American production to be decided over the next several weeks and a potential Chinese trade deal possible, I struggle to hedge off risk if I’m in a situation where these prices don’t work for me. I like setting a floor at $11 with at least a dollar of upside potential-this gives us a shot at a strong floor while knowing we can participate in a rally. If something like this interests you, let us know.
Bean Market Theme: The bean market continues its recent rally, which is encouraging. I’d have some offers in place for both old and new beans, as letting this rally get away from us would be tough to stomach.
As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure your break-evens and put your plan in place:
Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.