Good Morning!
It’s been another week of great weather around most areas of the corn-belt this past week. There should be some excellent progress when it comes to harvest, while many of us are getting as much ground worked as we want. Given diesel fuel prices, it makes a person wonder if they should do as much tillage this fall. Either way, October for most of us has been an excellent month to get work done. Toby, our 14-year-old, went to National FFA Convention this past week in Indianapolis. I remember going, but we went to Kansas City when I was in high school. It’s a great organization and a fun time in life. I’m sure some of you had people go this past week as well. Keep me posted on harvest results. I’ve heard from several of you the past few weeks. I appreciate the feedback. mbennett@agmarket.net.
For the podcast this week, I had my buddy Brian Splitt on to look at the technicals for both corn and beans. Bullish Spreads & Trendline Bounces: Managing Unpriced 2026 Bushels
Beans hung in there pretty good, while corn saw selling on the daily this past week. With funds continuing to liquidate their longs, it’s been quite a headwind for the corn market. Geo-political issues are keeping oil prices hopping, while talks of Putin and Zelensky attempting to work things out weighed on grains. Outside markets likely provided a positive bias:
CORN
December ‘26 corn again was worked over on the week, as funds continue to sell their longs in the midst of harvest. On Friday, Dec settled at $4.56, down 4 ½. This was 6 ¼ off the high and 1 ¼ off the low. Dec lost 18 ¼ cents for the week. The COT report showed funds sold another 85k contracts by Tuesday’s close, reducing their long to 146k. Technically, the corn market looks dreadful as we’re below all moving averages and even moved below the lows from August before the ProFarmer crop tour hit. One big piece of information on Friday was USDA admitted making mistakes on the September WASDE report, which kept Nebraska and Kansas yields lower than they should have been. They ultimately stated their October report final yield was one they were standing behind-but the faith in USDA’s numbers continues to dwindle, especially with things like this happening. We’re hearing excellent yields out of parts of Minnesota and northern Iowa, but otherwise, a ton of talk of corn being disappointing. The corn market needs some good news-while getting harvest over halfway done should give a boost to basis and possibly spreads, getting a bullish report isn’t a given by any means-and still three weeks away.
DEMAND
Corn demand was strong this past week. Exports came in at 1.527 mmt, so it was up over 400k from a week ago. Ethanol production increased to 1,094 mbpd, while stocks were up again. Basis was improving in most areas:
• My local basis: 20 under Dec (no change)
• Decatur: 5 over the Dec (no change)
• St. Louis River: 16 over the Dec (narrowed 16 cents)
CASH CORN
Cash prices were lower in many areas on the week. We still see some areas where basis has really improved, particularly where harvest is winding down. The river has been solid as export business has been steady. For cash corn, there’s no doubt we’ve taken a massive hit from the high. While corn is still relatively snug, this year is a great example of what we’ve seen the last few years. If we have just enough, the market isn’t going to much count at all. The reason we saw such a strong rally is the market saw a sub-10% stocks/use ratio for the US, which historically causes a demand-rationing rally. Is the 2026 crop big enough to keep us safely above 10%? Time will tell. I still like corn in the bin, while keeping some ownership of corn otherwise makes sense as well. I did a video with Joe Vaclavik on Friday on his Standard Grain premium content going over 4 re-ownership strategies. Two of them have no margin risk while two are a little more aggressive with some risk. If a person has to sell some corn to generate cash this fall, I’d sure consider keeping some ownership in one way or another.
2027 CORN
December 2027 corn ended the week at $4.95, down 11 ¾ for the week. Dec27 moving back below $5 isn’t ideal by any means. As we look ahead to 2027, acreage could be tough to come by. With the government handing out plenty of cash to producers, there’s a chance acres stay strong. However, we’re likely gaining up to 3 million acres of wheat-this should take corn/bean combined acreage back closer to 180 ma. I’m not sure beans can afford to lose many acres, so it’s quite possible corn acres are lower this coming year. It’s for this reason I’m in no hurry to extend coverage. If a person wanted to set a floor in place, I’d consider doing so but only if the position had some flexibility. The tough reality is there isn’t much meat on the bone at sub-$5 basis the board given input prices. Here is the link for more info on the AgMarket app. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0
Corn Market Theme: The corn market has been in free-fall mode. Hopefully we’ll see prices stabilize and get a post-harvest bounce as we’ve seen many times.
BEANS
Beans had a better week than corn as far as price action goes on the board. On Friday, November beans settled at $12.56 ½, up 3 ½. This was 7 ¾ off the high and 4 ¾ off the low. Beans lost 4 ¾ cents on the week. December meal lost 11 on the week at 346.1, while soy oil was down .30, settling at 66.83. The COT report showed funds sold 31k contracts, decreasing their long to 206k by Tuesday’s close. From a technical standpoint, the bean market moved down within a few cents of the 100-day moving average and bounced, closing higher on both Thursday and Friday. It appears the selling has stopped for the time being. Bean export sales have likely been the main catalyst to provide support as China continues to work towards getting their 25 mmt bought. Most have them at a minimum of 60% of the way there-while you could make a case they’re closer to 75% of the way there when factoring in unknown sales. For beans, yield results have been much more impressive, so the US crop very well could be growing-but demand is growing at the same time, which has countered the bearishness of supply. I like the late-week action in beans but we need to see some follow through this coming week to feel like the harvest low is in.
DEMAND
Soybean export sales were huge-up over 2 mmt at 2.84 mmt. Basis was steady to improved:
• My local beans: 25 under the Nov (no change)
• Decatur: 10 over the Nov (no change)
• River: 34 over the Nov (26 cents improved)
CASH BEANS
Cash beans were a bit lower in some areas but the river saw cash bids improve quite a bit. As with corn, we’re seeing excellent export activity, which is narrowing basis at the river. The action late in the week was again very encouraging. For those with beans to harvest yet, I don’t mind selling a few of these beans, while maybe DP could work on a few bushels at the same time. I would expect basis to improve on the heels of harvest as we’ve already seen. While I’m not opposed to keeping ownership as we’ve discussed, selling beans if yields are excellent is also tough to argue with.
2027 BEANS
Nov 2027 beans settled at $12.31, down 9 ¾ cents on the week. New-crop beans lost ground again. While Nov fared better, it was likely due to demand. When looking at 2027 beans, these prices look solid for hedging off some risk. Most could call beans a profit I’m assuming at normal yields. At the same time, the acreage battle we talked about earlier could keep some support for these beans. I’m always a fan of locking in profit margins, but if a person were to get aggressive, I’d want some flexibility in play just in case we see weather issues give support to bean prices. We could see some serious volatility in prices if South America would end up seeing this Super El Nino cause production issues as we’ve seen in the past.
Bean Market Theme: The bean market held together better than corn this week, giving hope a harvest low could potentially be in place. If profitable, be cautious as to be too bullish but keep some flexibility if you want the chance to participate in potential rallies.
As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure your break-evens and put your plan in place:
Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.