Good Morning!
I hope you’re having a great week so far. It’s hard to believe, but the end of October is upon us. While most of you are either done or close to it, I know there are several with a ways to go, especially in the north. For us we had a little shower on Tuesday, but most of the groundwork was uninterrupted, except for an hour or two. In our area, the amount of groundwork being done isn’t near what we usually see.
Given how dry we were for virtually the entire growing season, compaction certainly doesn’t seem to be an issue. I have also heard a few running deep tillage are burning up points faster than they can make them. One thing about this dry weather (on our farm at least) is we’re going through hay like it’s going out of style. We thought we had plenty of hay when we started feeding in August, as our pastures began to die. Hay prices have started to increase quite a bit in our area, so it could be interesting this winter getting a hold of hay with my shirt intact. Keep the correspondence coming. I’m hearing from several of you, and my bias is still a corn crop that needs to be adjusted lower, while beans could be similar to what the USDA is thinking; just my opinion. Stay in touch. For more information on AgMarket, click here. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0
The corn and bean markets continued the recent rally, with both settling well off their highs. With harvest still going, hedge pressure was a noted feature. The big news this week, of course, is how the meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi goes. How that turns out could be a catalyst for giving this all back or support moving forward. Outside markets should have provided a mixed bias:
CORN
The corn market continued its rally this week, but backed off from larger gains as we moved towards the close. December corn closed 3 ¼ higher at $4.32. This was 4 ¼ off the high and 4 ¾ off the low. Corn export inspections came in on Monday at 1.118 mmt, a marketing-year low. However, we’re still well ahead of last year’s pace with USDA forecasting a slight increase in exports versus a year ago. While we’re still not getting any data on harvest progress, the average analyst estimate of what is complete is 72%, which is similar to the five-year average. This corn market has been a reluctant follower of beans on this big bean rally. It’s tough to get real bullish corn with a huge crop still being harvested, especially after the USDA raised our ending stocks for 2024/25 by 200 mb on the September stocks report. We’ll likely have plenty of corn around, but I continue to see it as good property while we sort out what this coming year looks like and how Brazil’s growing season goes. If we have issues in SA with corn production and/or a pullback in US production, it would seem to me that corn ownership could be rewarding. It seems the funds are buying corn while the grower sells it, so that’s a good sign as well. I’d keep ownership of corn if you have to move it, while respecting these rallies and rewarding in increments as we move to levels we haven’t seen in a while. On Tuesday, December 2026, corn settled ½ higher at $4.66 ½.
SOYBEANS
Soybeans continued their strong rally on Tuesday but backed off a bit as the day wore on. November beans were up 11 on Tuesday at $10.78 ¼. This was 13 ¼ off the high and 13 off the low. Soybean meal was up 8.3 at 306.5, while soy oil was down .51 at 50.26. The weekly inspections showed beans at 1.06mt, well below levels a week ago and below expectations. As with corn, we still have no crop conditions or harvest progress, but the trade estimated harvest is 84% completed which is also similar to the five-year average. This bean rally has been something. Heck, November beans are almost 50 cents higher than where we were just a week ago, and have been up to 85 cents higher than we were just two weeks ago. With indications that a trade deal framework is in place for China to make ‘significant’ purchases, beans have reacted favorably. While a trade deal likely supports us for a bit, I’d be cautious about ignoring such a sharp rally, given how frustrated we’ve all been with prices the last few weeks. On Tuesday, November 2026 beans closed 9 higher at $11.03.
Matt Bennett
815-665-0462
@chief321