Good Morning!
I hope your weekend was a good one. We haven’t had a break in a couple of weeks, but we’ve made excellent progress. We finished beans last Wednesday and switched to corn. Our later beans were all as dry as a bone, with enough dust to last me a lifetime. I’m sure many of you have had the same experience trying to cut late at night and not being able to see a thing. The May-planted beans for us were off the April beans by about 20 Bu./A., but were decent considering how the summer weather finished. As we’ve gotten back into corn, we’ve been pleasantly surprised with how long this corn held on. With moisture still at 17-20%, we somehow saw these plants hold on longer than we thought they would. Yields have been solid, but not a record by any means. Regardless, these genetics are impressive to say the least. With no rain after July 15 on most of our farms, I figured we’d be looking at a whole-farm average on beans 20 under the 5-year average, with corn a similar story. However, beans were within 5-8 of that average, and corn within 10. I have the whole family helping get our harvest in, and they’re all getting a little tired. One of my main goals as we bring this harvest to a close over the next week to ten days is to prevent overworking anyone and maintain control over the dysfunction. 😊 I know with the weather how it’s been, everyone is getting tired, so please be careful out there.
My podcast on Beck’s YouTube was from the field this past week, but not in the combine. That’s my goal for this coming Tuesday at 10:30 a.m. CST. I appreciate all of the feedback. HERE is the link for more info on the AgMarket app. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0
The corn market was slightly lower on the week, while beans were up a bit. With news of upcoming US-China talks and their focus on the soybean trade, beans finally saw some optimism. With harvest in full swing, hedge pressure likely provided some headwinds for prices. Outside markets were mixed.
CORN
December 2025 corn wasn’t too exciting this past week. On Friday, December settled at $4.19, down 2 ¾. This was 4 off the high and ½ off the low. December lost 3 cents for the week. With combines rolling, the harvest pressure we’ve been talking about is certain to pick up. Excellent harvest weather has been the theme for many, so acres are disappearing fast. While some areas of the Corn Belt have discussed yields significantly lower than a year ago, others have discussed record yields. While I think it’s still too early to know where the final yield will land, it seems likely that we will move yields down if we get a USDA report this week. Given the government shutdown, we may not see the October WASDE report. If we don’t, what is likely to drive markets is harvest activity and weather. I struggle to see any big rallies knowing that, but at the same time, this corn market has performed better than one might expect. With a bearish stock report a week ago and huge acres and yield forecasted for this crop we’re currently working on, it would make sense to see prices leak from here. At the same time, focusing on 2026 acres due to excessively high fertilizer costs makes me think the trade is hesitant to continue selling.
DEMAND
Corn demand wasn’t entirely known. We had no export sales report due to the shutdown. Ethanol grind went down another 3mb to just under 96 MB. Stocks were lower. Basis was improving:
CASH CORN
Cash prices were steady to a bit higher. While the board moved lower, basis did the work in many areas. My best bet is that so many were harvesting beans that corn wasn’t getting delivered. Basis improved in most areas we followed this past week. Now, if we see this market rally, I can’t imagine the basis will hold together, especially as so many bushels will be getting delivered in the next three to four weeks. I haven’t changed my stance much on corn. For bushels you can’t store at home, I’d prefer selling those bushels, getting your hands on the money, and staying long out to April or May with calls or call spreads. Given the cost of storage, you can get a good, limited-risk strategy that is significantly cheaper than commercial storage. For those bushels you can store at home, locking that carry-in isn’t a bad idea. While we can do that with futures, I’d rather have a floor right at the market and potentially give up some of the upside to make that put more affordable. The name of the game is profit, so locking some in or a worst-case scenario seems wise to me.
2026 CORN
December 2026 corn ended the week at $4.61 ¾, up 1 ¾. I continue to think December 2026 is too cheap. With the fertilizer costs I’ve seen and had shared with me, coming up with black ink on cash flows for 2026 is going to take some creativity. Now, in fairness, I know many growers are cutting back on dry fertilizer for this fall, which would certainly loosen that cash flow a bit. However, given the negative margins for the average grower, I see many opting for a crop that is less capital-intensive. Let one of us know if you want help analyzing your risk-management plan.
Corn Market Theme: The corn market remains lifeless. I’m not bearish in the long-term, but I could see more selling in the coming days. Keep some flex in your plan and consider corn ownership to whatever degree you can handle.
SOYBEANS
Beans found some buying at mid-week but backed off heading into the weekend. On Friday, November beans settled down 5 ¾ at $10.18. This was 10 ¾ off the high and 1 ½ off the low. Beans rallied 4 ¼ cents on the week. October meal settled 1.9 higher on the week at 270.7, while soy oil ended the week at 49.43, down .17. This past week, it appeared that beans would just keep moving lower as the trade felt heavy. However, after President Trump announced an aid package for growers, which included talk about his upcoming talks with President Xi of China. Those talks will focus on opening up ag trade, which the trade views as a positive. While talk is cheap, there is no doubt that the absence of Chinese soybean purchases has hurt our markets as the trade ponders what our demand looks like with China absent. Pivoting to yields, it seems early beans were better-than-expected for most, while later beans in many cases were the opposite. Moisture contents in single digits alone could impact national yield, given that so many beans have been and are still being harvested excessively dry. I think figuring out a final yield will take some time, but there’s again a chance we don’t get an update this week when we typically get the October WASDE report. This bean market could see some volatility ahead, which might give us some life.
DEMAND
As with corn, we had no export sales announced this past week due to the government shutdown. Basis was improving.
CASH SOYBEANS
Cash beans were moving in the right direction this past week. While the board rallied, we saw basis improve, which isn’t always something we enjoy, especially during harvest. Bean harvest is moving rapidly, and given these super dry beans, it appears some in the origination business are working a little harder to sell some beans. For those trying to figure out what to do with these beans, I still like storing some on the farm when possible. The carry from November to July beans is still in this 60-cent range, which is certainly worth the hassle. Considering the basis is likely to improve as is generally the case, picking up the carry and some basis should be enough reward to store these beans. For those heading to the elevator, it’s a tough row to hoe. Given huge storage costs, I understand the hesitancy to store at the elevator. If we sell them, even though basis has been improving, it’s no beauty queen by any means, selling these beans at current cash prices. Re-owning beans is a consideration as a trade deal likely injects life into these markets. I would consider a combination of strategies to spread your risk out and do your best not to get cute with this bean market. It could again get volatile.
2026 SOYBEANS
November 2026 beans settled at $10.65 ¾, up 1 on the week. It was nice to see November 2026 stabilize a bit this past week. While we were hovering for some time up to around $11, the last couple of weeks we’ve seen plenty of selling. If we get a trade deal and inject life into the bean complex, I’d have some offers in place for next fall’s beans. I’m not saying we get carried away, but selling incrementally at levels we can make money at is just good business. I like a put strategy to lock a floor in. Something that gives us flexibility is what I prefer, especially given how this bean market can move in waves. I know beans have been a dog for several months, but if we can get a positive trade deal and maybe even some Brazilian weather issues thrown in, a sizable rally can’t be ruled out. If we get it, we can sell more increments on the way up. It’s all about managing risk and locking in worst-case scenarios. If you need some help with your marketing plan, let us know.
Bean Market Theme: The bean market had a little life in it this past week. Having offers in place is recommended for both old and new crop. Use the carry in the market if you can store at home and stay flexible.
As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure your break-evens and put your plan in place:
Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.