September 10th Grain Marketing Update

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Good Morning!

I hope you’re having a great week so far. I’m done with travel until harvest is over, but I did get to go to a good meeting on Monday night in Iowa. The group hosting us had one heck of a crowd, and they were in a fine mood. Given how good things look in their area, they should be in a good mood. While many were talking about being too dry the last three weeks and worrying about bean yields, most were talking about potential record corn yields. On our farm, I tried some 3.3 maturity beans on Tuesday after lunch, but they were too wet. With local guys reporting beans with leaves coming out at 9%, I didn’t want to be caught sitting on my hands too long. While we had several butter-beans and a handful of pods, the beans that were biting were likely under 10%. The test was over 16%, though, so I doubt we’ll cut many until Thursday or so. Our corn was mostly planted in the last week of April or early May, so I doubt we’ll be able to harvest for a few more days. Those who are picking corn have been in mid-April-planted, and it’s running 15-28%, sometimes on the same pass. Yields for those starting have been a bit disappointing in our area, which isn’t hard to fathom with how dry we finished. My biggest issue at this point is how poor our later beans might be, especially on our lighter ground. Time will tell. Stay in touch.

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The corn and bean markets both struggled for much of Sunday night into Monday’s session before closing higher. However, on Tuesday, they both gave some of the gains back with a lack of follow-through buying. While the weather continues to be a challenge for most of the corn belt while trying to finish off these crops, most eyes are currently on the USDA report, which is on Friday at 11:00 a.m. CST. Outside markets should have provided a muted bias:

• The US Dollar settled up .323 at 735.
• October crude oil settled up .37 at 63.
• The DOW settled 182 points higher at 45,757.  

The corn market gave back some of Monday’s gains on Tuesday, where corn settled in the lower end of the range. December corn closed 2 lower at $4.19 ¾. This was 2 ¾ off the high and ¾ off the low. Corn export inspections came in on Monday at 1.443, which was again above expectations and the levels from a week ago. The good/excellent rating dropped by 1% to 68%, while the weekly crop progress report indicates that 74% of the crop is dented and 25% is mature. I’ve been talking about how much this corn crop has suffered over the last month. As our AgMarket team was putting together our guesses for Friday’s USDA report, we decided to keep our yield unchanged at 184.8 Bu./A. This cut production over 300 million bushels, but our stocks number only came down 130 mbu to 1.984 bbu. The reason we didn’t take stocks down too hard is that we feel the USDA was too strong on demand in the August report. Part of the reason for this is big feed usage, which isn’t looking likely if these cattle continue staying in Mexico to be fed instead of heading into the US. For now, Mexico is buying our corn, feeding their cattle, processing them, and selling beef into the US. I expect a neutral to friendly report on Friday, which will hopefully keep this corn market from falling out of bed through harvest. December 2026 corn settled ¾ lower on Tuesday at $4.59 ½.                             

December ’25 Corn Chart

SOYBEANS

Soybeans were up 6 ¾ on Monday, then gave back some on Tuesday. November beans were down 2 ½ at $10.31 ¼. This was 4 ¾ off the high and 2 off the low. Soybean meal was up 5.8 at 287.7, while soy oil was down 1.05 at 49.93. The weekly inspections showed beans at 452k, which was below expectations and a solid, good number. For crop conditions, we saw ratings dip 1% to 64% good/excellent, while 97% of the beans were setting pods and 21% were dropping leaves. For Friday’s report regarding beans, we again kept our yield the same as in August. Whereas the USDA was at 53.6 Bu./A., we predicted 52.5, and that’s where we’re going to stay for the time being. In all honesty, I’m wondering if we won’t end up closer to 50 by the time January rolls around, especially with such a dry finish to the crop. If you didn’t see the video I did with Eric Snodgrass that flows through our app, he showed just how dry much of the corn-belt was the last month, with some areas at 130-year lows. Our stocks went up to 303 mb even though we dropped the yield, due to our belief that the USDA needs to drop exports due to such a poor start. Beans are tough to figure out. While I see the US situation as continuing quite tight, the world situation likely remains ample, which could keep a lid on rallies. On Tuesday, November 2026 beans closed 2 ½ lower at $10.71 ¾.

November ‘25 Soybean chart

Matt Bennett
mbennett@agmarket.net
Work: 815-665-0462
Twitter: @chief321