Good Morning!
We’re finally trying to get rolling as we get into the weekend. I hand-shelled some corn on Tuesday on what I see as our driest corn-it was 24%. We decided to give it a few days and Beau picked some corn on Friday that tested under 20. I had to go over to Des Moines to record Market to Market, so he and my Dad got things started. I was surprised as I didn’t see one machine running on the six-hour drive. I saw where some corn had been taken out and some silage chopped, but there wasn’t any activity on my route. I think we’ll start cutting beans sometime this week, so I’d like to get as much corn out before that. With how quickly this stuff it drying down, I’m afraid after we get done cutting beans the corn will be under 15. Keep me posted on harvest if possible. mbennett@agmarket.net.
For the podcast this week, we looked at the report and some of the projections as well as charts. September WASDE Preview: Corn & Soybean Yield Projections & Price Outlook
The corn and bean markets were both lower on the week. With some selling heading into the report and a negative reaction from beans on Friday, we lost some ground. Ge0-political tensions remain elevated. Outside markets likely provided a positive bias:
CORN
December ‘26 corn lost some ground on the week as harvest gets underway. On Friday, Dec settled at $5.30 ¼, down 3 ½. This was 14 ½ off the high and 7 off the low. Dec lost 6 ½ for the week. Technically, this corn market is back below the 10-day moving average and stayed just above the 20-day. The commitment of traders showed funds buying another 13k contracts, raising their long to 414k. The USDA report came out essentially where the trade had estimated. With a yield of 178.5, this was the average of the trade guesses. Given they had to raise exports for old-crop another 25 million-bushels, the net result was new-crop ending stocks at 1.567 bbu. This is a 9.7 stocks/use ratio, which is where we typically see a demand-rationing rally. USDA took feed and residual usage down 150 mb or we would have been looking at an even lower stocks and s/u ratio. They likely pulled down stocks/use due to the crop size getting smaller. It’s a typical protocol for USDA reports. So, why did prices fall with a supportive report? We already had a lower yield number baked in and that’s why we rallied in the past month. Also, beans moving sharply lower didn’t help corn out any. Moving forward, we know there should be some hedge pressure as we get this crop harvested. However, I expect some measure of support due to the need for more acres in 2027. Given wheat acres likely go up due to strong wheat prices and beans need more acres, it could get interesting.
DEMAND
Corn demand was mixed this past week. Exports came in at 79 kmt for old-crop and 1.929m for new-with this week, we finished the old-crop marketing year and started the new. Ethanol was down to 1,099 mbpd, while stocks were up. Basis was mixed:
• My local basis: 32 under Dec (2 cents wider)
• Decatur: 14 under Dec (6 cents wider)
• St. Louis River: 30 under Dec (4 cents wider)
CASH CORN
Cash prices were lower on the week. While the board moved lower, we also saw basis widen. This is normal for this time of year. While cash prices are off of where they’ve been, we’re still looking at some of the best prices we’ve seen in the last few years. For those bushels going across the scale, the bushels that aren’t already priced are carrying a nice value for now. I’m a fan of selling some corn and owning calls moving forward. I like corn ownership, so those bushels going in the bin should be good property. We can always consider putting a floor under those bushels which would give us a chance to stay bullish for a bit with a nice worst-case scenario locked in. Regardless, we again need to remember to be willing to take some profit when it’s on the table. A person can always do so with a chance to participate should the market move higher.
2027 CORN
December 2027 corn ended the week at $5.32, down 4 ¼ for the week. Dec27 is now higher than Dec26 corn, likely a reflection of the trade’s thoughts we need acres for this coming year. With that being said, corn to fertilizer ratio right now is improved from a year ago. It’s still plenty high, but a person can hedge or sell less bushels of corn to cover those fertilizer costs than they could a year ago. This is a good risk-management strategy for us to consider. While I’m not bearish corn, it’s a discipline I’ve employed for some time that I feel is a benefit to my farm. Locking in a floor above $5 isn’t something we’ve had a chance to do over the last few years. Here is the link for more info on the AgMarket app. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0
Corn Market Theme: The corn market likely sees hedge pressure ahead. While stocks are tight and the need for acres strong in 2027, it’s a tough time of year to expect a rally.
BEANS
Beans got worked over after the report on Friday. November beans settled at $12.96 ½, down 35 ¾ on Friday. This was 38 ¾ off the high and 3 ½ off the low. Beans lost 12 ½ cents on the week. October meal settled down 1.4 on the week at 346.8, while soy oil was up .50, settling at 69.19. The COT report showed funds bought another 22k contracts, bringing their long to 257k by Tuesday’s close. From a technical standpoint, the bean market closed back below the 10-day moving average for the first time in almost a month. The USDA report showed no changes for the old-crop balance sheet, while raising the 2026 yield .1 to 52.8. This along with an increase in exports of 25 mb brought carry-out down to 310 mb. When you consider we raised planted acreage 5.7 million with a similar yield to last year’s 53 bu, dropping carry by 15 mb is a big deal. This bean market may have took a hit on Friday, but the picture in the US and World remains one of big demand and tightening stocks-even in the midst of huge US and South American crops. It’s tough to get bearish, but that doesn’t mean we ignore the rally. Selling some here and there at profitable levels makes sense.
DEMAND
Soybean export sales were impressive. -175k mt were posted for old-crop, while new-crop sales were huge at 2.637 mt. Basis was mixed/widening:
• My local beans: 35 under the Nov (35 cents wider)
• Decatur: 10 under the Nov (40 cents wider)
• River: 4 under the Nov (4 cents wider)
CASH BEANS
Cash beans took a hit this past week. With the early premiums gone and hedge pressure starting to show up, the bean market is taking a breather. While I’m not bearish, I’m also a fan of selling a few beans in the $13 area for those who are running behind on sales. We haven’t had a chance to sell beans at these levels for several years, so I’m not sure it’s a great idea to snub our noses at these prices. For those who want to sell some beans and keep a long bias, I like a March call spread. We should know everything there is to know about South American production by the time those calls expire in late February.
2027 BEANS
Nov 2027 beans settled at $12.55 ½, down ½ on the week. New-crop beans are similar to new-crop corn in that additional acreage seems necessary. With growing demand, both in the US and globally, we can’t afford a production hiccup anywhere in the world at this point. While I like hedging off some corn when selling fertilizer, I know many don’t attribute much fertilizer to beans. I would consider putting offers in on these 2027 beans to get started with an incremental sale. If you can lock in better prices than we’ve been able to the last four years, it’s tough to ignore. I always say ‘if your first sale is your worst sale but it’s profitable, you’re going to have a great year’. That’s essentially why I like considering an increment in here.
Bean Market Theme: The bean market is taking a breather, but the price levels are still impressive.
As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure your break-evens and put your plan in place:
Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.