Good Morning!
Harvest is officially started on our farm. While we tried some beans early in the week, they were too wet, but with the sun and heat, they were testing by Thursday. We cut 250 acres of beans on Thursday and Friday and hopefully will get another 100+ on Saturday. While the next field may be a few days off, we may try some corn at the start of the week. With temps in the 90s for 5 straight days, these crops are coming fast. Our early beans, which were planted in mid-April, were testing 11-13.5 and yield was solid but off of the last few years by a few. Given the dry finish, I have nothing to complain about. What I’m more worried about are my May beans. With the last 6 weeks essentially being a flash drought, those beans are likely to suffer without a chance to fill all of those pods. I appreciate the feedback on yields. It sure has been all over the board with everything from well below APH to record yields. Keep the correspondence coming. mbennett@agmarket.net.
I started the Beck’s podcast this past Tuesday on a trial run. We had over 1,000 views, so it wasn’t a bad start. If we’re farming, I’ll attempt to go live from the field on Tuesday morning to discuss a market update. We appreciate the interest everyone has shown in the app. Here is the link for more info on the AgMarket app. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0
The corn and bean markets navigated another bearish USDA report. While yields came down a bit, harvested acres went up and carry-out levels remained similar to where they’ve been. With a dry finish to the crop, I’m of the opinion early yields will far outpace those later in harvest, so we might see further yield deterioration. Outside markets should have provided some support.
CORN
December ‘25 corn hadn’t done much on the week until after the USDA report was released. On Friday, Dec settled at $4.30, up 12. This was ¼ off the high and 13 off the low. Dec rallied 12 cents for the week. The report on Friday wasn’t exactly bullish, so the buying post-report was certainly bizarre but welcome of course. With harvested acres going up 1.3 million, the yield drop of 2.1 bu/ac down to 186.7 kept overall production quite similar. With the increase in exports by 100 mb to 2.975 bbu, we have massive demand assumed from USDA. Therefore, if we see a yield drop from this point forward, it would be standard protocol for demand cuts to offset some of the production cuts. The only things I can think of which would spur a rally after another bearish report would be the trade feels yield needs to drop more…and looking forward to 2026, we may need a rally to secure enough acres to satisfy such big demand. Selling rallies incrementally makes good sense to me if you can live with these prices. Given we’re almost 50 cents off the lows, it’s hard to argue with.
DEMAND
Corn demand was off a bit as we enter the new-crop sales year. Export sales came in at 597 KMT, which was 850k more than the net cancellations a week ago. New-crop sales were 539k. Overall sales were about 800k lower than a week ago. Ethanol grind was strong at 107 MB. Stocks were higher on the week. Basis was widening:
CASH CORN
Cash prices were moving a bit higher on the week with the rally on Friday. Given it’s harvest time, a guy has to wonder if basis doesn’t widen out even more, especially if we see the market keep up with this supportive tone. I know a ton of corn will get harvested in short order, especially with the intense heat bringing everything along so quickly. I see basis playing out similarly to how I’ve felt for some time-we could get even wider in the thick of it before seeing some improvement. We’ve had guys selling what they need to out of the field and buying calls. While it depends on the preference of the grower, the type of strategy we recommended before of buying a May call-spread makes quite a bit of sense. It keeps us long past the crop insurance date and March planting intentions. Those particular items could be market movers in a year where we need to see unprecedented demand satisfied. For bushels going in the bin, we have huge carry in the market, so locking some of that in might be a consideration. While I’m hoping for a rally, when we’re in a carry market, the market typically sees each new contract trade back towards where the previous contract went off the board. Knowing this, we’ve had some guys wanting to hedge the carry, and there’s certainly plenty of ways to do that while managing risk. Let us know if you want to talk to one of us about finding the right strategy for your operation.
2026 CORN
December 2026 corn ended the week at $4.69, up 10 ¼. This is just a penny lower than the spring insurance price we received on ’25 corn this past February. This is important to watch, in my opinion. Given much higher cost of production for ’26, I can’t get super-excited about locking corn in here, but at the same time, a flexible strategy could put a grower in a comfortable worst-case scenario situation. My gut tells me ’26 corn could work up closer to $5 to secure acreage for this coming year, but I as a grower won’t be waiting for that nice round number to start hedging risk. If we continue this current rally, I’ll likely put a flexible floor on a few bushels.
Corn Market Theme:
The corn market ended the week on a strong and surprising note. If we can get some follow-through buying, I’d consider having some offers in if you feel like you need to make catch-up sales. Keep some flex with your plan.
SOYBEANS
Beans had a nice week, with some buying present after the report, just like we saw with corn. On Friday, November beans settled up 12 ¾ at $10.46 ¼. This was 2 ¾ off the high and 18 ¼ off the low. Beans lost 19 ¼ cents on the week. Oct meal settled 7.1 higher on the week at 287.6, while soy oil ended the week at 51.67 up .86. The USDA report for beans also saw an increase of harvested acres-of 200k with yield staying up at 53.5 bu/ac. They raised soy crush 15 mb and lowered exports 10 mb, so the stocks number went up 10 mb to 300. It’s still a very tight number, especially considering many of us feel this yield is way too high. Given extremely dry conditions through August, we can only assume the crop is smaller than previously thought. Call me crazy, but I have never seen a dry August make for better bean yields than what a normal or wet August does. What I see playing out is yield getting cut while exports have room to move lower. The net result is a very tight balance sheet for the US for this marketing year and a world balance sheet that may tighten along with it. Given the Brazilian grower is planting a ton of beans as they always do, weather south of the equator will be watched closely in months ahead.
DEMAND
Soybean exports were decent for old-crop at 622k tons, which was 650k more than we saw of net cancellations a week go. 541k were posted for next marketing-year, so bean exports overall were up around 300k. Basis was steady for the most part.
CASH SOYBEANS
Cash beans were going up a bit with the rally on the board. The issue right now is basis for these beans we’re harvesting flat-out stinks. In fact, I’ve seen a difference for cash bids from harvest to July of up to a dollar! As I’ve said a few times, putting beans in the bin this year makes some serious sense-especially if you have a system you can keep your moisture content from getting away from you. I know storing beans for many is unpopular as you put 13% beans in and take them out at 10-11 sometimes, but if you can keep your moisture intact, we should consider storing as many as we can. Commercial storage is incredibly high-priced for many. Locally, we see a 40-cent fee to get to Jan 1! That’s just crazy. So if you have to sell some beans this fall, I can’t get as excited about re-owning them-maybe a guy re-owns half the bushels with a limited-risk call spread. Let us know if you want to look at how to navigate this as selling beans this year is certainly a challenging situation.
2026 SOYBEANS
Nov 2026 beans settled at $10.84, up 14 on the week. I remain in this camp that I’ve been in for some time. For those planning on going heavy beans, whether it be due to your normal rotation or due to the high costs of planting corn, we need to manage some risk if that’s the direction we’re going. I actually think it’s a good idea to go heavy beans, providing some risk is managed when that decision is made. Writing an HTA with your buyer on a few bushels is reasonable so long as you’re sure who you want the beans going to. Buying an $11 put is pricey, so we could lock in a worst-case scenario by selling a call well above the market. That would lock us in to a price that maximized up over $12 but keep our floor close to $11. When it comes to managing risk on beans, we must realize how volatile these markets can get, so I wouldn’t get carried away with any particular strategy. I would manage and spread out our risk as much as possible.
As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure your break-evens and put your plan in place:
Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.