Good Morning!
I hope your weekend went well! Our week was a bit slow, in all honesty. While we waited for more beans to get fit to cut, we tried some corn early in the week. That corn tested 24-25%, and we decided we should wait, as we don’t have a dryer on the farm. We were able to cut another 150 acres of beans this past week, and they were ranging from 9-14%. Once we got those cut, we went back to corn to close the week. While it had dried some, moisture hadn’t dropped as much as we’d figured on the field we went to. I’m hearing of fast drydown for many, like a point+ per day. However, our fungicide appears to have held well, which makes sense. I don’t think our disease pressure is anything like that of those of you who had ample August rain. All in all, it’s been slow but better than expected to start. I assume this next round of beans this week will be the start of non-stop until we finish. We’ll see if Mother Nature still knows how to rain in my county as we have a couple of chances on Sunday and Monday. We’re at over 50 days with less than a half-inch. Keep the correspondence coming.
The Beck’s podcast will be every Tuesday at 10:30 a.m. CST, and I assume this week I’ll be in the combine. During the weeks I am in the office, I’ll review a few pertinent slides, explaining what I’m up to and how the markets are unfolding while I'm in the field. Here is the link for more info on the AgMarket app. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0
The corn and bean markets both had an easier tone for the week as buyers were unmotivated to push prices higher. With harvest activity picking up and demand news sparse, we lost some ground on both. Outside markets should have provided some support.
CORN
December 2025 corn didn’t see much buying on the week. On Friday, December settled at $4.24, up ¼. This was 5 ¾ off the high and 1 ¾ off the low. December lost 6 cents for the week. As harvest picks up, we’re likely to see some selling pressure and general widening of basis. With bushels going from a bit tight before harvest to plentiful, it’s a feature we generally can expect. December is about 40 cents off the lows posted back on the August report day, so we’ve been blessed with better prices than it initially looked like we might see. However, the market seems to lack direction for now, with extremely wide yield reports. I’ve talked to growers who have record yields and growers who are well under APH. As of now, I have to think USDA is still too high on yield, with my best guess around 182.5. While that sounds friendly, as far as old-crop goes, we’re likely to lose demand as production goes lower. I think old-crop stocks will be ample, while the big question remains if we can satisfy demand in 2026 with what is likely to be lower acres.
DEMAND
Corn demand was mixed. Export sales came in at 1.2 MMT, which was 700k more than a week ago. No new-crop sales were posted, so overall sales were around 100k more than a week ago. Ethanol grind went down to 5mb to 102 MB. Stocks were lower on the week. Basis was widening:
CASH CORN
Cash prices were a bit softer on the week. While my basis locally improved a bit, it wasn’t enough to offset losses on the board. Basis levels in other areas were softer, most likely due to harvest activity. I assume the only way we go back up and test the gap for December corn at $4.32 is if the market starts to think yield is going to drop substantially. Getting back to a yield like we saw a year ago under 180 would do it, but I’m not sure just yet if that will happen. It’s hard to know how this market will play out, but a couple of things to watch are how a potential payment from the USDA affects the grower’s appetite to make sales. If we see a payment, we’ll likely see the grower tight-fisted for a bit. This could improve basis and possibly give us some support. Once again, the biggest thing that could affect the overall corn market is the feather in our cap of huge demand. Once we build the demand, we have to satisfy it, and given current economics, the 2026 situation could provide support to old-crop corn on down the road.
2026 CORN
December 2026 corn ended the week at $4.62, down 7. We have traded up to that $4.70 level, but can’t seem to get over the hump. I know a few of you have reached out, wondering if we should be hedging some 2026. I am ok with it on a limited-risk position. I kind of like buying a $4.80 put and selling a call up at $5.50 or so. I know a few of these accumulator contracts have been bumping up on $5 as well, which wouldn’t be a bad place to get a start. A guy could always buy a call to insulate that hedge at some point, given that the weather is likely to be closely watched for 2026. Long story short, I am supportive of 2026 prices but have no issue managing some risk up here as long as we stay flexible.
Corn Market Theme:
The corn market had a weaker tone for the week. As we wade through harvest, we’ll likely see a cap on rallies if this crop is as big as expected. I think we’ll drop the yield, so look out for opportunities and keep flex with your marketing plan.
SOYBEANS
Beans were also lower as selling picked up late in the week. On Friday, November beans settled down 12 at $10.25 ½. This was 22 ¼ off the high and 1 ½ off the low. Beans lost 19 ¾ cents on the week. October meal settled 4.7 lower on the week at 282.9, while soy oil ended the week at 50.03, down 1.63. While the trade was higher for a bit on Friday, it was mostly due to excitement around President Trump’s call with Xi from China. That call mostly centered around TikTok, so the market quickly turned from nice gains, which would have been a higher close on the week-to a double-digit loser on the day. This ensured a weekly loss. Right now, we have a lack of export demand due to China’s absence in buying US beans, but we also have a bean crop that many are questioning if the USDA is too high. I am of that opinion after seeing some of our beans on the lighter ground taking the kind of hit I was afraid we’d see. I’m worried the later beans in this area, where drought was the worst for August and the first half of September, will really take a hit. While the bean market isn’t setting the world on fire by any means, I don’t see us falling out of bed until we feel good that US yield can stay up around this 53.5 vs. slipping closer to 50, and I think that’s quite possible.
DEMAND
Soybean exports were solid for old-crop at 923k tons, which was 300k more than we saw a week ago. Just 2k were posted for the next marketing year, so bean exports overall were down a shade. Basis was mixed
CASH SOYBEANS
Cash beans were lower on the week as the board moved lower. While basis was mixed, even where it improved, we saw cash prices lower. As with corn, this is likely due to harvest pressure picking up. Bean prices should hold together unless we start to think this crop is indeed a 53+ bushel yield. Given strong domestic demand for beans, the trade is ready for export demand to pick up with a Chinese trade deal. Unfortunately, we don’t see much progress there just yet. With talks this last week that Trump was working on a deal for increased sales of soybeans, as well as boosting Boeing’s sales, at least we know the administration is taking some heat for our export situation. I’d keep some flex in the plan, knowing a boost of soybean exports could really stabilize this market. If this bean crop moves closer to a 50 bushel yield, I expect good support and possibly a rally to unfold, especially if we see a trade deal finally come through.
2026 SOYBEANS
November 2026 beans settled at $10.70 ¼, down 13 ¾ on the week. I will continue to urge you to look at 2026 bean hedging, especially if you’re going heavy on beans in 2026. As always, I like a flexible plan, especially if we’re selling this far out. My gut feeling on next year’s beans tells me we’ll see big world production again, while the US grower likely grows more beans than we did here in 2025. If we boost acres by 4 or 5 million, weather issues won’t be quite as important, given the extra wiggle room with how much we plant. I don’t want to be too aggressive just yet, but locking in a worst-case scenario at a profitable level seems wise to me. I think some of us can do that if we get our floors up closer to $11. Let us know if you want to explore a strategy that will do just that.
As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure your break-evens and put your plan in place:
Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.