Good Morning!
We have been back in some corn to start the week. While the moisture isn’t quite as low as we’d like, we’re running regardless. With most of our corn in the 20-24% range, we’re going after it as we know once we get in beans, it will be a bit until we get back in the corn-and by then it could be 12 or 13%. We had some rain on Tuesday evening, so I’m relieved to know we can catch a decent shower on our farms still. With a half-inch to an inch, we should be running again soon with as dry as the ground was. Our April corn on black ground is pretty good. The fungicide held well, which isn’t hard to fathom considering our lack of rain. One thing is for sure-you can see the soil types this fall with as dry as we finished. I appreciate all of the feedback. Man, there are a ton of different yields coming at us this year with a wild disparity between the good and bad. Early beans seem consistently good, and I hope we all get pleasantly surprised by the late ones as well. Keep in touch. For more info on AgMarket, click here. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0
The corn and bean markets were lower to start the week on Monday, while seeing corn get back its losses and then some on Tuesday. Beans weren’t so fortunate, seeing double-digit losses on Monday and minor gains on Tuesday. The lack of a trade deal with China continues to weigh on this bean market. Outside markets should have provided a mixed/friendly bias:
The corn market gained back Monday’s losses plus a couple more on Tuesday. Dec corn closed 4 ½ higher at $4.26 ¼. This was ¼ off the high and 7 ½ off the low. Corn export inspections came in on Monday at 1.329 mmt, which was close to expectations and another solid number. Good/excellent dropped by 1% to 66%, while the weekly crop progress report shows 91% of the crop dented and 11% harvested. The corn yields are again quite variable. Given how much the crop has disappointed the growers we’ve been talking to, it’s tough for me to think this yield is going to hang in there. The October USDA report should drop the yield back, but prior to that report is the September Quarterly Stocks report. Our research shows final stocks of corn should be above the USDA’s carry-out number at 1.325 bbu. Given how heavy the market has felt in the west, particularly in North and South Dakota, I won’t be surprised with a bearish stocks report next week. So, we could face some headwinds before the get to the October report, but at the same time, IF we see yield get slashed again, we’ll hopefully see some support for this corn market. With big question marks for ’26 acres, I’d be surprised if we tank this corn market, especially if production gets dialed back. Dec26 corn settled 3 higher on Tuesday at $4.62 ¾.
SOYBEANS
Soybeans had a good day on Tuesday after giving some back on Monday. November beans were up 1 on Tuesday at $10.12. This was 3 ½ off the high and 7 off the low. Soybean meal was down 2.8 at 275.1, while soy oil was up .18 at 49.35. The weekly inspections showed beans at 484k, which was below expectations and a sign of poor export demand we’ve all been talking about to start this new marketing-year. The good/excellent rating came in at 61%, which was a 3% decrease from a week ago. The report showed 61% dropping leaves and 9% harvested so far. This bean market has been on the struggle bus of late. While big question marks for final crop size exist, exports remain a major concern. This is the window when we ship the most beans, so without a Chinese trade deal, expecting much in the way of a rally is tough to imagine. For new-crop ’26, prices have fallen a fair bit as well. With Nov26 falling over 25 cents in the past week alone, it appears many others were looking at that $11 level as a place to hedge off some risk or sell beans. On Tuesday, Nov26 beans closed 3 higher at $10.63 ½.
Matt Bennett
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