April 11th Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

It’s about time to farm around here. While we have had showers here and there, we’re finally getting enough heat we should be able to get a bunch done in the next few days. Given the forecast, I’m about ready to plant corn as well, but we’ll likely try to sock in most of the beans before switching my planter over to corn. Mid-April beans should have a good shot of flowering by summer solstice, so we’re going to get after it if at all possible. I know some of you have a wetter forecast than ours, so hopefully that will back off for you. We’re getting started with some ‘summer’ sports already, so there will be some jockeying around to where I can hopefully not miss too many of the kids’ games. I’d like to hear from you on progress if you get a chance-I appreciate those who’ve been keeping me up-to-speed. mbennett@agmarket.net.

This past week on the podcast, we talked about the Iran deal as well as crude oil and fertilizer and the impacts we are seeing. Here’s the link. Protecting Your Profits: Grain Market Update with Matt Bennett

Once again, the corn market was lower on the week while beans gained some ground. With funds continuing to defend long bean positions, the bean market looks much more resilient than corn in the midst of a turbulent geo-political environment. Outside markets should have provided support, although it’s been hard to outguess.

• The US Dollar was down 1.540 at 98.450.
• May crude oil settled down 15.84 at 95.70.
• The DOW settled up 1,539 points at 48,168.

CORN

May ‘26 corn posted the third straight week of losses. May settled at $4.41, down 3. This was 5 ¼ off the high and 3 off the low. May lost 11 ¾ cents for the week and 21 ½ cents in the last two weeks. The COT report showed funds selling 47k contracts as of Tuesday’s close, getting their position down to a 211k contract long. Whether we’re talking the funds paring back long or how we’re set up technically, this market looks challenged for sure. With steady selling both from the producer and likely from managed money, the buyers haven’t stepped up. While oil made new highs earlier in the week, corn was reluctant to follow. Unfortunately, when oil plummeted, corn seemed willing to follow it lower. In the big picture, the WASDE report this week didn’t give any major direction-but it did show world supplies aren’t exactly shrinking. We have a stable supply of corn even though record demand persists and stocks/usage ratios continue to dwindle. Given tough sledding ahead for fertilizer markets from most observers, these markets could get wild if we don’t see corn rally. Bottom line is inputs don’t look to be cheap anytime soon while corn has gotten back closer to the range we traded this winter.

DEMAND

Corn demand was strong this past week. Exports came in at 1.361 mmt, up 200k from a week ago. Corn grind for ethanol was also up, coming in at 108 mb. Stocks were down though. Basis was steady:

• My local basis: 25 under May (no change)

• Decatur: option the May (five cents improved)

• St. Louis River: 30 over May (2 cents improved)

CASH CORN

Cash prices were again down on the week. While the board strengthened a bit in some areas, it wasn’t near enough to off-set the move lower on the board. With the farmer still owning a fair bit of corn, it’s been a big headwind for those looking for a nice run-up in cash prices. When the board was rallying, basis widened and hasn’t necessarily narrowed many places on the board’s move lower. On old-corn, I still think some ownership makes sense. With that being said, owning on paper trumps owning the physical in my opinion-especially in the west where there’s more corn that what a guy knows was to do with it. While the board has a shot at rallying by all means, basis may struggle to hold together as we’ve already witnessed.

2026 CORN

December 2026 corn ended the week at $4.72 ¼, down 9 on the week. This fall corn has been soft along with the nearby. It’s interesting in that fertilizer and fuel haven’t backed off much if any. With much of the corn-belt sitting so far, not much corn has been going in just yet. I wouldn’t say the market is nervous by any means, and it’s unlikely we’ll see that for another few weeks given it’s still April. I know some of you who are wet or still quite cold aren’t happy to hear that but given how fast this crop can get put in the ground, we’d need to be mid-May before we see weather premium come in due to late planting in my opinion. With that being said, I’d think Dec corn will stay supported in this area without much of the crop going in the ground just yet. I’m holding off on sales for now but will have offers in place on a move back towards $5 once I get the corn crop up and going. I’ve got some August short-dated $5 calls bought, which will help me get more aggressive on a move higher being that I’d know I’m already long. It’s part of the flex I’m always harping on-or getting a worst-case scenario locked in with a chance to participate in upside should we see it. Here is the link for more info on the AgMarket app. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0

Corn Market Theme:  The corn market looks weak for now. We need to see some buying come in or risk moving right back into the range we were locked in before the war started.  

SOYBEANS

Beans have been impressive of late, even as both corn and wheat have slid. May beans settled at $11.75 ¾, up 10 ½. This was 3 ½ off the high and 11 ¼ off the low. Beans gained 12 ¼ cents on the week. May meal settled 16.6 higher on the week at 331.8, while soy oil ended the week at 67.09, down 1.85. The COT report showed funds selling 23k contracts of their long bean positions-putting it at 181k. The bean complex overall, which includes meal and oil show a 420k contract long. While most estimates out of Brazil show this huge crop and the US is poised for a solid increase in acres, we still see interest in a long bean position. The USDA pared back exports and added crush demand this week, which was a needed adjustment. I’d say more cutting of exports is possible while adding to an already record crush pace is hard to imagine. I’m not bearish beans, but it’s sure hard to be bullish here.

DEMAND

Soybean export sales were down on the week at 353 kmt. Basis was steady:

• My local beans: 25 under May (no change)

• Decatur: 20 over the May (8 cents improved)

• River: 20 over the May (8 cents improved)

Cash beans were higher on the week. With a rally on the board and some areas narrowing basis to boot, it’s obvious beans are in strong demand. Here in the US, those areas with crush plants are likely to be bidding for beans as we move from here to harvest due to less beans being available to buy relative to corn. I am still in the camp of whittling down to gambling bushels, whatever your comfort level is with those percentages. While there’s no doubt this bean complex could take a hit if the funds lose interest in beans, on the same token, it appears they’re quite committed to their long bias.

2026 SOYBEANS

Nov 2026 beans settled at $11.57 ¾, up 3 ¾ on the week. New beans didn’t rally quite as much as the nearby but ended the week in the black. For new beans, it all boils down to whether you can make money here or not. Given a normal yield, if you can etch out a profit, it makes great sense to me to step in and lock some profits in. At the same time, the more aggressive you get, the more flex you should consider given how volatile these markets could get. The nice thing we have in front of us is a better opportunity to hedge beans than we’ve seen the last couple of years. I’d try not to outguess this thing and simply base decisions based on your farm’s profit margins. If you need some help getting your marketing plan together, be sure and reach out.

Soybean Market Theme: The bean market has been resilient. I’d consider locking in worst-case scenarios if you can call these prices profitable. On the flip-side, consider keeping some flex if you choose to get aggressive.  

As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure your break-evens and put your plan in place:

👉 https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0

Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.