March 14th Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

I hope you’ve had a nice week. Our week was a good one as we don’t have a ton of stuff going on in the evenings right now. With the weather, we had some more rain, and it’s been nice to get them spread out a bit. While we have some tiles running, we don’t have a great deal of subsoil moisture-but I’m not complaining at all as we’ve certainly recharged the ground heading into spring. While temps have been making me itch to get to planting, we’re supposed to have a low of 10 degrees on Monday night. That’s going to keep equipment in the shed for now. The longer-term forecast looks like we may get a stretch of warmer weather with plenty of sun and no rain in the forecast, so some March-planted beans are certainly not out of the question. Either way, it’s about that time-so keep me posted if you get a chance to roll. Stay in touch. mbennett@agmarket.net.

This past week on the podcast, we detailed the WASDE report from Tuesday as well as talked about impacts from the situation going on in the Middle-East.

Both corn and beans posted gains again on the week. The war situation again had an impact as energy prices surged on Sunday night, backed off but then worked higher as the week went on. Outside markets were trading as follows as of this writing:

• The US Dollar was up 1.535 at 100.425.
• April crude oil was up 7.16 at 98.06.
• The DOW was down 983 points at 46,533.

CORN

May ‘26 corn had a solid week, posting weekly gains once again. May settled at $4.67 ¼, up 4 ¾. This was ¼ off the high and 8 ¾ off the low. May rallied 6 ¾ cents for the week. Technically, this market continues to work higher as it remains firmly above all moving averages. The commitment-of-traders report showed a huge week of fund buying with 146k contracts bought, taking the funds to a net long of 199k contracts. Remember this was as of Tuesday’s close. The way this market traded was important as we moved into the weekend. On Friday morning in the overnight session, we were actually down on the week after posting a new high for the move. That wouldn’t have been a good look for corn. However, buying continues to show up on weakness, which shows the funds are quite interested in owning corn. Whether old-crop or new, there have been opportunities to price some corn or hedge risk in here. Given we’ve seen the highest pricing opportunities we’ve seen in the last couple of years, I’d hate to ignore this type of price action.

DEMAND

Corn export demand was strong again on the week. We came in at 1.503 mmt. Corn grind for ethanol was up, coming in at 109 mb. Stocks were lower. Basis was steady:

• My local basis: 23 under May (no change)

• Decatur: 3 under the May (11 cents wider)

• St. Louis River: 11 over May (no changed)

CASH CORN

Cash prices for the most part were up on the week. While some basis levels have widened out, it’s certainly due to so much grain flowing as growers are rewarding this rally to a great degree. Given the volume of corn that needs to move, basis widening is to be expected. I’ve talked a fair bit about having some increments offered in as these rallies could catch your price on the overnight before the widen out if the rally holds. I have said all along a rally for corn seemed a strong possibility, but there’s no doubt the war has a ton to do with it. The nice thing is we see demand staying strong even as prices work higher. With all this being said, keeping your strategy of rewarding rallies at profitable levels should remain. For those who sold corn last fall and re-owned on paper, some of those options have appreciated to profitable levels. Putting some of that in our pockets might not be a bad idea.

2026 CORN

December 2026 corn ended the week at $4.91 ½, up 7 cents on the week. This is again the highest close we’ve seen for Dec corn in a couple of years. While there remains the possibility we see much higher prices if this war continues for any stretch of time, the nice thing is our inputs are mostly locked in for this growing season. Therefore, selling an increment here and there once we’re profitable is a good way to lock in some worst-case scenarios. As I’ve said all along, keeping some flex is a must in a year like this. IF we get blessed with a big rally this year, we need to make the most of it given the way we’ve drawn down our liquidity the last couple of years. Locking in a floor at the very least seems to be a wise move. I also like placing some hedges in the Dec with the thoughts of rolling that out to July this coming fall. There’s plenty we can do, but ultimately, we need to know our break-evens and make sure our marketing plan is designed to lock those margins in. Here is the link for more info on the AgMarket app. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0

Corn Market Theme: The corn market looks solid right now. This coming week will be interesting to see if we can push up and over $5 basis the Dec.

BEANS

Beans had another good week, keeping the rally going. May beans settled at $12.25 ¼ on the close, down 2. This was 4 ½ off the high and 16 off the low. Beans rallied 24 ½ cents on the week. May meal settled 5.5 higher on the week at 322.7, while soy oil ended the week at 67.44, up .86. The COT report showed funds buying 24k contracts, taking them to a 211k contract long. This bean market has been impressive. This past week, we benefited from oil moving higher, which has supported bean oil along with other vegetable oils. With renewable fuels legislation anxiously awaited, most opinions are we’ll see a strong push for building out this renewable fuels industry. One big piece of info was Cargill announcing they weren’t shipping any more beans for the time being from Brazil to China as some quality control concerns exist. There is no timetable on how long this might last but it certainly makes US bean sales more likely than they’d be otherwise. As with corn, we have seen the best opportunities to sell or manage risk that we’ve seen in some time. I would be respecting these moves with incremental sales if you can make these prices work.

DEMAND

Soybean export sales were up on the week at 457 kmt. Basis was steady:

• My local beans: 33 under May (no change)

• Decatur: 8 under the May (four cents wider)

• River: 3 over the May (9 cents wider)

CASH BEANS

Cash beans had another solid week. While we saw some basis widening, cash prices were stronger regardless. As we’ve stated plenty of times, the grower owns less cash beans than they do cash corn, relatively speaking. At times like these, we can see rallies extended to levels we didn’t expect. While I’m not saying I’m bearish, I would continue to dole out a few bushels here and there. It makes great sense given how much we’ve rallied from just a month ago. I know some growers have talked about wrapping up old-crop sales and shifting focus to new-crop. Whatever you decide to do, if you have old-crop beans, congrats for holding out. My only advice is to be careful to not let this all get away from you.

2026 BEANS

Nov 2026 beans settled at $11.61 ½, up 14 ¾ on the week. New beans have surged in the last couple of weeks. Given most areas are seeing $11 out of the field, it’s tough to ignore with at least an incremental sale-in my opinion anyway. As with new-crop corn, I believe it best to keep some flex to where you can participate in the event this rally continues. Fundamentally, this market makes no sense to be rallying this way. While the war coming to an end likely pulls premium out of the market, if we lock in some worst-case scenarios, it would sure help us sleep better if we don’t miss out on the rally on all of our bushels. Fall sales basis the cash are hard to argue with if a grower doesn’t want to do anything on paper. However, for those who have been aggressive already, I’d be sure to keep flex on anything in addition to what you’ve already done.

Bean Market Theme: The bean market continues to rally. Locking in some profit if you can make these prices work should be a considering on increments.

As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure your break-evens and put your plan in place:

👉 https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0

Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.