March 23rd Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

I hope your week was a good one. After the cold/snow and rain on Monday into Tuesday, our weather has improved a ton. It’s t-shirt weather again, which is making people itch to get into the field. With temps in the 80s for the weekend, I can only assume we’ll see some beans getting planted in short order. However, our forecast shows lows down in the 30s and 40s until midweek when we see a brief warmup. The issue I see when trying to decide if I plant or not is some rain has crept into the two week forecast, so we’ll be waiting until midweek to decide what to do. I know some are rolling and many are considering it so keep me posted if at all possible. Stay in touch. mbennett@agmarket.net.

This past week on the podcast, we talked about the debacle on Monday and how the war continues to impact ag commodities. Here’s the link. Grain Marketing Update with Matt Bennett (3/17/2026)

The corn market dropped along with beans on Monday but rallied through the week recuperating those losses. The bean market closed down the limit on Monday and made some ground up through the week but ended with moderate weekly losses. With no improvement in the Iran/US situation, the markets remain quite unsettled. Outside markets were trading as follows as of this writing:

• The US Dollar settled down .648 at 99.459.
• May crude oil settled up 1.39 at 98.23.
• The DOW settled down 997 points at 45,893.

CORN

May ‘26 corn ended the week with small losses after significant pressure to start the week. May settled at $4.65 ½, down 4 ¼. This was 3 ¾ off the high and 1 ½ off the low. May lost 1 ¾ cents for the week. Technically, this market took a hit on Monday but recuperated nicely as traders seemed committed to a longer-bias. While plenty of corn is available due to a huge 2025 crop, the board continues to be well-supported as demand remains strong. The commitment-of-traders report showed another week of fund buying with 32k contracts bought, taking the funds to a net long of 231k contracts. This corn market is likely to follow energy prices-which makes it really tough to predict. No one knows how long or intense this situation might be with Iran, and with the Strait of Hormuz still closed, there is plenty of risk premium built into energy markets. Could crude rally significantly from here? Of course, and if it does, it should support corn prices. However, when the market feels comfortable the situation will start returning to normal, the wind could certainly come out of the sails. Overall, this situation warrants flexibility in our marketing plans, both for old and new-crop. Let us know if we can be of assistance in managing this volatile situation.

DEMAND

Corn export demand backed off a bit this past week. Exports came in at 1.172 mmt, down from 1.5 a week ago. Corn grind for ethanol was also down, coming in at 106 mb. Stocks were up. Basis was steady:

• My local basis: 27 under May (4 cents wider)

• Decatur: 8 under the May (a nickel wider)

• St. Louis River: 18 over May (7 cents improved)

CASH CORN

Cash prices didn’t go anywhere this week-if anything, they moved lower in some areas. It was certainly notable the improvement on the river as export markets continue to call for corn. Export sales and shipments have continued well above the pace needed to reach the USDA goal. Still, there’s plenty of corn out in the country, so interior basis bids levels have widened with the recent rally. While I’ve felt all along having some ownership in corn makes sense, I’ve felt the best way to own it was on paper due to what I figured would be basis widening on rallies. We’re still seeing that, and I’m not sure it will end anytime soon. Still, the entire corn complex has been impressive of late, mostly due to the rally in crude coinciding with big-time demand. IF we see a bullish report on the 31^st, there’s no doubt we could see more strength yet in the board. Until we chew through more of this corn, it likely is met with a similar situation we’ve seen in which the basis makes holding cash corn tough to do, especially away from the export markets.

2026 CORN

December 2026 corn ended the week at $4.90 ¾, down ¾ of a penny on the week. This last week we saw Dec trade back up to $495 ½, or about three cents off the high we saw in the previous week. With several growers trying to get hedges off as close to $5 as possible, a fair amount of new-crop has been getting sold as well. It’s tough to argue with getting more risk-management in place at prices we haven’t seen in a couple of years. On the flip-side, once a grower gets to a hedge level they feel is adequate, it’s understandable to hold off for now. IF we see this Strait of Hormuz stay closed for any extended period of time, it should have a positive impact on energy markets, which should support corn as well. I have hedged 40% of my corn, but that doesn’t mean I’m bearish-we have to understand it just means we’re willing to lock in worst-case scenarios at profitable levels. Consider how you wan to approach this market and get your plan put in place. Here is the link for more info on the AgMarket app. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0

Corn Market Theme: The corn market held together this week after a rough start. Look for opportunities to lock in worst-case scenarios and profitability on a portion of production.

BEANS

Beans had a rough week due to an abysmal start. May beans settled at $11.61 ¼ on the close, down 7 ¼. This was 14 ¾ off the high and 1 ¾ off the low. Beans lost 44 cents on the week. May meal settled 5.3 higher on the week at 328, while soy oil ended the week at 65.51, down 1.97. The COT report showed funds selling 16k contracts, taking them to a 195k contract long. The COT still shows the whole bean complex with a 400k long, so traders have remained interested in owning beans and bean products. What precipitated the trade closing down the limit on front-months on Monday was shakiness in US/Chinese relations as President Trump said the meeting with Xi and China could get canceled. Withing a day or so he suggested the meeting would happen, but it may be postponed. It shows how uneasy the market is currently. Still, when funds want to own these ag commodities, they don’t always throw in the towel easily. It’s hard to be bullish beans fundamentally, but if the government will support renewable fuels continuing to grow here in the US, there’s no doubt we could see support even in the midst of big supplies.

DEMAND

Soybean export sales were down on the week at 298 kmt. Basis was steady:

• My local beans: 33 under May (no change)

• Decatur: 8 over the May (16 cents improved)

• River: 9 over the May (6 cents improved)

CASH BEANS

Cash beans had a tougher week due to the board drop. While some basis levels showed strength, the huge drop in futures prices didn’t get offset by that kind of basis pop. This cash bean market is interesting in that very few growers have cash beans still available. When the natural seller isn’t there to provide hedge pressure on rallies, we can see the markets get pretty worked up. I remain in the camp that we might consider getting down to gambling bushels, but getting rid of them all may not be something a person wants to do just yet. Who knows what can happen in these markets if we see this money flow into ags continue.

2026 BEANS

Nov 2026 beans settled at $11.41, down 20 ½ on the week. New beans didn’t get hit near as hard at the start of the week as did cash beans. Therefore, they didn’t have as much ground to make up the rest of the week. So we certainly lost some ground, but at the same time, we see Nov beans at levels we haven’t had the luxury of hedging at for the last couple of years. I’m not necessarily bearish beans, but I struggle to get too bulled up. As with corn, I think we have to keep some flex just in case this commodity wave of buying continues. However, locking in some worst-case scenarios seems like a wise move, especially for those who are currently able to claim profits.

Bean Market Theme: The bean market finally cooled off. However, we’re still looking at attractive prices, so don’t get too bullish in here. Keep profitability the goal.

As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure your break-evens and put your plan in place:

👉 https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0

Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.