March 9th Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

I hope your week has been great. Our week was nice at home, getting caught up on as many things as possible. I went to Iowa on Thursday and spoke at a couple of meetings and sandwiched between them, I went in to Market to Market to do a Thursday recording. They switched me from Friday due to Paul’s commitments as the announcer for the Iowa state basketball tournament. Man, it was a bunch of driving in one day, but I noticed most areas I saw were quite dry yet. For us at home, we had plenty of rain. I saw our tiles start to run later in the week, which makes sense considering we had between 2-3 inches on all of our farms. For the last twelve months, we’re still more than 10 inches away from being out of a rainfall deficit, so once this is all soaked in, we’ll either need more rain or timely ones through the growing season. Stay in touch. mbennett@agmarket.net.This past week on the podcast, we talked on the war and impacts we’re seeing along with general markets. Here’s the link. 

Both corn and beans posted solid gains agin on the week. With war premium entering anything energy related, we saw some buying come in to our ag commodities. While there’s no telling how long the war might last, the opportunities it’s providing for growers has been notable. Outside markets were likely a mixed/bullish influence.

• The US Dollar was up 2.041 at 98.860.
• April crude oil was up 24.42 at 90.90.
• The DOW was down 2,157 points at 47,517.

CORN

May ‘26 corn had a strong week as cash bids moved to bidding the May as March corn goes into delivery. May settled at $4.60 ½, up 7. This was 1 ½ off the high and 8 ¼ off the low. May rallied 12 cents for the week. Technically, we continue to hold a nice little uptrend at a time when one might expect markets to struggle due to the corn the US grower has on hand. The commitment-of-traders report showed a big week of fund buying with 65k contracts bought, taking the funds from a net short to a net long of over 50k contracts. Remember this was as of Tuesday’s close. Given the market action later in the week, I’m assuming they’re much longer than this COT report shows. I’ve thought corn would be good property all along, but in fairness, this rally is more about world tension and energy/fertilizer issues concerning world trade. Whether we’re talking old corn or new, latching onto some of this good fortune is something to consider, especially when selling in increments as we prefer to do.

DEMAND

Corn export demand was up on the week. We came in at 2.023 mmt. Corn grind for ethanol was down to 106 m. Stocks were higher. Basis was steady:

• My local basis: 23 under May (4 cents wider)

• Decatur: 8 over the May (6 cents wider)

• St. Louis River: 11 over May (2 cents improved)

CASH CORN

Cash prices were up on the week, but we again lost some basis as the board rallied. When our partner JSA looked at last week’s 12 cent rally, they found the average widening of basis was around a dime in the corn-belt. For this week, it wasn’t as much, but there has been a massive amount of farmer selling this past week. This likely keeps some pressure on basis. I’d have offers in place as they may get filled on the overnight market. IF it’s a big move and we pay attention to what’s been going on, we have to expect we’ll see that basis widen out even more. I know we’ve talked about owning corn on paper being a better situation than with regards to cash, and as of late, that’s been the case. However, if you own the corn and it’s in your possession, you may have more bargaining power than you think, even on a year with this much corn in the country.

2026 CORN

December 2026 corn ended the week at $4.84 ½, up 15 cents on the week. This is the highest close we’ve seen for Dec corn since May 15, 2024. We saw a fair amount of farmer hedging this past week and it’s hard to argue with that rationale. My best advice is for growers to incrementally hedge once they can legitimately call it a profitable sale at APH-type yields. I still like keeping some flex in the plan, but if a grower wants to sell some corn on a fall sale at $4.50 or better and can get it-if you can make money there, it’s worth a consideration. Heck, if it rallies to a higher price, we can sell more. If the war comes to an end, I’d expect these strong prices to fade, so if we don’t reward this rally with any sales, we’d likely be a little upset with ourselves. How long this war last can definitely make an impact on prices-IF it lasts very long, the availability of spring fertilizer might be damaged, which is part of why we’re rallying. Be cautious as to get too stingy, though as these prices are better than we’ve seen in a long time. Here is the link for more info on the AgMarket app. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0

Corn Market Theme: The corn market is building some momentum. This is when most of us get bullish, so keep your head and manage risk at profitable levels.

BEANS

Beans had another good week along with the other ag commodities. May beans settled at $12.00 ¾ on the close, up 21 ½. This was 2 off the high and 23 ¾ off the low. Beans rallied 30 cents on the week. May meal settled 3.3 lower on the week at 317.2, while soy oil ended the week at 66.58, up 4.73. The COT report showed funds buying 16k contracts, taking them to a 187k contract long. This bean market continues to run higher. While big estimates continue on the Brazilian bean crop, some concern with Argentine weather persists. Regardless, it’s unlikely we see tight world stocks this year, so fundamentally it’s tough to get too bulled up. On the other hand, renewable fuels guidance is very much anticipated, and I believe a fair amount of the excitement is in regards to what is thought to be friendly guidance from the EPA. Ultimately, as with corn and wheat, beans are the benefactor of these strong energy prices, which of course we don’t know how long they last. Whether looking at old-crop or cash, this run is quite the opportunity, so I’d consider managing some risk on this rally.

DEMAND

Soybean export sales were down on the week at 383 kmt. Basis was steady:

• My local beans: 33 under May (no changed)

• Decatur: 4 under the May (no change)

• River: 12 over the May (no change)

CASH BEANS

Cash beans had a great week with the 30 cent board rally-while basis didn’t widen out in the areas I look at. I know less growers have old beans than have old corn. As I’ve said recently, a person could get out of their old beans at these higher prices, but I’m not so sure I wouldn’t hold onto some gambling bushels. My opinion is we should have an offer in to clean them up, and for those who haven’t sold much new-crop, you can look at it this way-your new-crop will be worth more and you can put your focus there if you have old-crop cleaned up. While there’s no telling where we’ll go with the funds buying beans, this rally has been a great move-if you have some and don’t sell them, it doesn’t mean much though.

2026 BEANS

Nov 2026 beans settled at $11.46 ¾, up 18 ½ on the week. New beans in more areas every day are seeing $11 fall bids. In all honesty, it looks better but if you can’t make it work, I still wouldn’t get too aggressive just yet. For those who can make it work, we might consider selling a few or locking in a floor. I saw some guys buying puts at the money and selling calls between $12.50 and $13-I don’t mind a trade like that as we could participate in a further rally. I have no issue just selling beans if we can call these prices a profit. Ultimately, we must realize IF this war gets a cease-fire or comes to an end, much of what we’ve gained here could go away rather rapidly.

Bean Market Theme: The bean market was impressive this past week. Locking in some profit for those who can is a great idea.

25

As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure your break-evens and put your plan in place:

👉 https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0

Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.