April 25th Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

We had a fairly-productive week getting some corn in the ground. After almost two inches of rain last week, we dried out on our tiled ground by Wednesday and was able to plant a third of our corn Wednesday into Thursday. Soil conditions were excellent as the heat and wind dried things down. While most are hammer-down in my area, there’s plenty of people hoping for a shower. Some of the beans that went in the ground last week are trying to come but the rain and wind has a decent crust on the ground. I suppose if I was asking, I’d ask for a quarter-inch. I appreciate the feedback-keep it coming. mbennett@agmarket.net.

This past week on the podcast, we touched on planting pace, the impact of the war and energy markets and how the charts look. Here’s the link. Protecting Your Profits: Grain Market Update with Matt Bennett

For the second week in a row, the corn market saw some buying while beans backed off. With the current weather situation, With the weather not cooperating with widespread planting, corn appears to be supported at the expense of beans. The war situation continues to influence energy markets the greatest. Outside markets were mixed.

• The US Dollar was up .445 at 98.345.
• July crude oil was up 5.77 at 90.46.
• The DOW settled down 307 points at 49,376.

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CORN

May ‘26 corn posted a weekly gain for the second week in a row. May settled at $4.55, down ½. This was 2 ¾ off the high and 1 ½ off the low. May rallied 6 ¼ cents for the week. Technically, this corn market is back to looking solid. We’ve rallied 5 out of the past 6 sessions. Again, this corn market is likely supported due to the weather as much as anything right now. Demand is strong, but that’s something we’ve gotten accustomed to. Given how much of a struggle it’s been to make solid progress combined with sky-high nitrogen costs, most feel the swing acres will likely go to beans or something other than corn where applicable. I like the action in corn but as always feel we should reward rallies with incremental sales.

DEMAND

Corn demand was strong this past week. Exports came in at 1.317 mmt, down 80k from a week ago. Corn grind for ethanol was also down, coming in at just under 101 mb. Stocks were up though. Basis was mostly improved:

• My local basis: 20 under May (no change)

• Decatur: 10 over May (five cents improved)

• St. Louis River: 40 over May (7 cents improved)

CASH CORN

Cash prices were up on the week. While the board again rallied, basis was steady to improved. With planting occurring in parts of the corn-belt, cash movement is expectedly slow. During spring planting, we typically see some basis appreciation. With the corn market supported by big-time demand and thoughts that acreage could get cut back by weather and fertilizer prices, it’s good to see the board strength not accompanied by major basis weakening. On the back-side of corn planting, I’d be a little wary of assuming basis will hold together to a great degree-especially if we see much more of a rally. I like rewarding the market on rallies with some sales, so if you have much old corn left to sell, I’d consider having offers in place. While cash ownership is king, those bushels in the elevator might be better served turning into cash-and if you want to stay long, consider doing so on paper. The storage costs will likely be tough to recuperate.

2026 CORN

December 2026 corn ended the week at $4.84 ¼, up 7 ¼ on the week. The action in Dec corn continues to impress. Last year, we couldn’t get above the spring price the whole year, while we’ve spent all of our time since the end of February above that $4.62 average. While I agree we all need to make the most out of a year like this due to how rough the last three years have been for most, we also need to realize how much money we could make at normal or above yields by simply locking in some worst-case scenarios at better prices than we saw this past growing season. You might consider keeping some working orders in place as a part of your marketing plan. If you can make money, it’s not a bad idea to lock it in. Here is the link for more info on the AgMarket app. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0

Corn Market Theme: The corn market has some support, especially with the weather situation. Rewarding rallies with an incremental sale here and there makes good sense from my vantage point.

BEANS

Beans were again off a bit on the week. May beans settled at $11.63 ¾, up 4. This was ½ off the high and 7 off the low. Beans lost 3 ½ cents on the week. May meal settled down 7.5 on the week at 324.3, while soy oil ended the week at 71.91, up 3.75. The bean complex continues to be range-bound. Heck, this market on the cash side has been in a 25-30 cent trading range for weeks, and that’s not necessarily normal compared to what we’ve seen the last couple of years. Cash beans continue to show strong demand as crush margins are running over $3 consistently. While exports have been poor, domestic demand for beans is stout. Other countries have stated they’re working on renewable diesel mixes up to 100% soybean oil, with Brazil being the most notable. These high energy prices have forced governments to look at how they can reduce their dependence on foreign oil-so this war in Iran has had positive potential impacts with regards to demand. I’m not too bullish by any means, due to world stocks-but it has been impressive to see this bean market hold together.

DEMAND

Soybean export sales were up on the week at 365 kmt. Basis was steady:

• My local beans: 13 under May (4 cents improved)

• Decatur: 28 over May (8 cents improved)

• River: 34 over May (6 cents improved)

CASH BEANS

Cash beans were steady on the week. While beans dropped on the board, we saw basis improve in most areas. With beans in shorter supply than corn, relatively speaking, crush plants are doing what they have to in order to keep the plant going. While I know many are out of beans or are down to lower levels, I believe I’d see what happens with cash beans on the remainder of bushels. I don’t personally own any, so that’s easy to say-but as long as it’s not a huge percentage, I believe I’d see how this thing plays out.

2026 BEANS

Nov 2026 beans settled at $11.55 ¾, down ¾ on the week. New beans again fared better than old. I have to think it’s an acreage deal. With such strong domestic demand and corn rallying, there’s a possibility we’re trying to hold onto or even build some bean acres. For those who haven’t sold many beans, it all boils down to where you can make money. I personally have a good chunk of my beans either sold or protected-about 60%. I like being at that level as I know I can make money there with average production. If you haven’t sold any or many beans, it may be wise to run your break-evens again and see how these prices work on your operation. That would be a good way to approach your marketing plan moving forward.

Bean Market Theme: The bean market continues range-bound on old-crop while new-crop is holding steady. I’d still look for a chance to lock in worst-case scenarios with some flex.

As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure your break-evens and put your plan in place:

👉 https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0

Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.