May 23rd Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

I hope your week has been productive. While we finished last week with planting, we have some spotting in or replanting to accomplish if we can get dried up. Last weekend we had around two inches of rain, so we’re hopeful what we planted last week will all make it. Considering warm soil temps, I feel good about it, especially if we get a shower in the next few days. We’d like to get some hay put down here soon, but finding a window has been about impossible to date. The April planted corn and beans look solid, but it would be nice to get some heat-that is supposed to arrive this coming week. Heck, we had a softball game for our youngest on Thursday night and everyone was wearing their winter coats-on May 21^st! I sure hope those of you who have been wet all spring get to roll in the next few days as the pattern appears to shift a bit. Keep me posted. mbennett@agmarket.net.

This past week on the podcast, we talked about the US/China trade deal and the potential impacts moving forward. Here’s the link. Protecting Your Profits: Grain Market Update with Matt Bennett

Corn and beans both rallied on the week, mainly due to a big rally on Monday based on US/Chinese news. With $17 billion worth of agricultural goods outside of soybeans to be purchased, the trade got bulled up right out of the gate. While we gave some of those gains back through the week, we had nice gains regardless. Outside markets saw weekly changes as follows as of the time of this writing prior to Friday’s close.

• The US Dollar was down ..013 at 99.195.
• July crude oil was down 4.50 at 96.62.
• The DOW settled up 1,186 points at 50,803.

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CORN

July ‘26 corn started the week rolling then cooled off after the hot start, keeping solid weekly gains. July settled at $4.63 ¼, up 1. This was 4 ½ off the high and 2 ¼ off the low. July rallied 7 ½ cents for the week. Technically, this corn market held right where it needed to with welcome buying coming in this past Monday. Do I think we can go back and make new highs on any of these corn contracts? I do, but I also plan on selling a few more bushels above $5 basis new-crop. Selling where we can make money doesn’t make us bearish-it just makes us smart enough to take a profit when it’s there. There’s no way of knowing where this corn market might go, but my lean is for it to stay supported until we learn June planted acreage. IF we get some unforeseen export business between now and then, it would likely be a great opportunity to hedge off some more risk. I’d be putting offers in for both old and new corn above the market, hoping we can lock in profit margins.

DEMAND

Corn demand was impressive this past week. Exports came in at 2.125 mmt, three times of the amount from a week ago. Corn grind for ethanol posted another big increase on the week, coming in at 107 mb. Stocks were steady. Basis was mostly improved:

• My local basis: 20 under July (no change)

• Decatur: 12 over July (2 cents improved)

• St. Louis River: 20 over July (no change)

CASH CORN

Cash prices were up on the week. With a nice rally coming out of the gate for corn, one might think basis could widen on a week like this. However, basis held in there and in some areas, improved. With double-digit gains in many areas for cash bids, I’m sure some of those who had cold feet before the previous week’s drop have looked at these prices differently. We likely have around 6 weeks to get most of our corn committed, unless you’re betting on a weather issue or other reason for a big rally. We can’t forget how much old corn we’ll likely carry into this coming fall-this could keep a lid on cash bids. At the same time, I have a suspicion China buys US corn in the coming weeks, which would certainly be supportive, given how strong our export program already is. Long story short, I’d have a plan in place to get sales made incrementally on rallies. If a person wants to keep gambling bushels out into late summer, I get it but personally, I wouldn’t put too many eggs in that basket. It hasn’t worked out well historically.

2026 CORN

December 2026 corn ended the week at $4.86 ½, up 5 ½ on the week. The action in Dec corn was strong to start the week and faded somewhat as we got closer to the weekend. With planting progress slowing a bit, we are still running at an average to above-average pace. The trade doesn’t seem near as concerned with planting progress as it does with how many acres we may end up with. As a grower, I still feel like we get more shots to lock in margin at better prices than today. With that being said, if I hadn’t sold any corn yet, I’d likely reward these prices right here where we are. $4.85+ is a level many of us assumed we wouldn’t see this year, so we don’t want to lose sight of that. Legging into a hedged strategy with ability to participate in a rally is what I think we should consider. Here is the link for more info on the AgMarket app. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0

Corn Market Theme: The corn market came back to life this past week, particularly due to the fervor over US/Chinese relations. As always, I like rewarding a rally with incremental sales, especially when we can call it a profit.

BEANS

Beans also came out strong at the start of the week, saw some selling but held onto gains when it was all said and done. July beans settled at $11.96 ½, up 2 ¼. This was 5 off the high and 6 off the low. Beans rallied 19 ½ cents on the week. July meal settled down 2.4 on the week at 331.9, while soy oil ended the week at 73.98, up .10. The bean market saw buying come in late last week and early this past Monday just where it needed to. While we moved lower, we still have a long-term uptrend in place, which makes me assume this market has a good shot of staying supported when looking at the technicals. If we look at it from a fundamental standpoint, it gets a bit more challenging. While we’re looking at a tight carry-out for this crop we’re growing, it’s quite possible the USDA is too low on acres, both in the US and in South America this coming year. If fertilizer prices stay elevated, which I assume they will, global soy production could increase while feedgrains decrease. Therefore, locking in worst-case scenarios when we’re flirting with multi-year highs seems wise to me.

DEMAND

Soybean export sales were up substantially on the week at 351 kmt. Basis was steady:

• My local beans: 20 under July (no change)

• Decatur: 25 over July (5 cents improved)

• River: 20 over July (3 cents improved)

CASH BEANS

Cash beans were moving higher on the week. While we saw the nice run higher on the board, basis levels were steady to improved, which is a great sign. Crushers are still printing serious money, so around crush plants, we can expect excellent basis levels. Given we’re still pushing $12 beans, it would seem wise to limit future risk by rewarding the market. However, I’m still a fan of a person keeping some gambling bushels in our possession. This bean market can offer wild swings at times, which can be taken advantage of should an offer be in place ahead of time.

2026 BEANS

Nov 2026 beans settled at $11.87 ¾, up 17 on the week. New beans saw some buying come in as well. While we ended the week with a muted tone, picking up a nice weekly rally is something we shouldn’t ignore. I know some are heavily sold on new-crop beans while some haven’t sold a bean. If you’re in the latter category, make sure to have your break-evens figured and consider locking some profit margin in if these prices indeed work for your operation. While I’m not necessarily bearish beans, I like selling a rally like this and hope to sell more at a higher level. I’d hate to see $12 beans get away from us in the event we plant more bean acres than we’re currently thinking. As always, keeping your flexibility is of utmost importance on a year like this. If you want help with a marketing plan that locks in net profit while leaving us a chance to participate in a rally, let us know.

Bean Market Theme: The bean market got back to work this past week. Taking advantage of a rally after such a tough market the previous week is good business in my opinion.

As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure your break-evens and put your plan in place:

👉 https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0

Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.