August 16th Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

This past week was again quite busy. I was in Minnesota, central Illinois and Iowa. It’s interesting to talk to the growers in each area. With those in Minnesota relaying many had too much rain, overall they felt good about yields as the good likely makes up for the drowned out spots. El Paso, Illinois was quite interesting with many growers relaying major tip-back and disease pressure-and a common theme was their crop wasn’t as good as a year ago but still solid. The Iowa folks were the ones talking massive yields. Some relayed to me they thought they’d see whole farm averages that easily make new records. Given the rain they’ve had in most areas this summer, I can see why they think that. When it comes to beans, very few growers in the last two weeks were happy about weather. Those with rain said they had too much rain with white mold and sudden-death a big factor. Others didn’t have enough August rain to fill pods in their opinion, so overall, I have to think this USDA yield of 53.6 could have a fair amount of room to move lower. We’re still dry here, so we’re shaving some yield, especially beans. I appreciate all of the feedback. Keep it coming. mbennett@agmarket.net.

I’ll be at Becknology Days in Atlanta, Indiana this coming week. If you’re going, be sure to say hi. Let me know if you want to chat or ask questions on our app or services. I look forward to seeing all of you. Here is the link for more info on the AgMarket app. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0  

The corn and bean markets had a wild week with corn holding steady while beans were sharply higher. The USDA report was certainly friendly for beans while undoubtedly bearish for corn. Given market action, this drier-biased August in the ECB likely has some traders wondering if we’ve seen the biggest yields we’ll see. The lack of a trade deal with China is likely holding back a bigger bean rally yet, so it will be interesting if the weather or trade deals drive markets in the coming days. Outside markets were active and were trading at the following prices as we moved close to the end of the week.

• The US Dollar was down .324 at 97.685.
• September crude oil was .73 lower at 63.15.
• The DOW was up 721 points higher at 44,999.   

CORN

September corn was up 4 of 5 days with the one down day of course on the day of the USDA report. On Friday, Sep settled at $3.83 ¾, up 8 ¾. This was ½ off the high and 9 ¼ off the low. Sep rallied 1 cent for the week. With a new ‘life-of-contract’ low set on Tuesday, the market rebounded admirably as traders seem to be questioning if this yield is for real. Given the ProFarmer crop tour starts on Monday, the results will be closely followed. The USDA doesn’t get in the field in August, so they rely on the farmer surveys as well as satellite imagery. Producers have been adamant over the last week or two saying their crop isn’t what they thought it was based on the looks of the field. With issues like tip-back, southern rust and tar spot, many have relayed to me they could be 10-50 bushels lower than they thought just a couple of weeks ago. A person shouldn’t get too bulled up just yet as the USDA added 545 mbu of demand to the balance sheet due to the big jump in production. However, the focus at some point will shift to how we satisfy strong demand in ’26 if corn acres come down substantially-which is certainly a possibility. I’m still longer-term friendly to this corn market, but we have to understand there are a ton of moving parts.

DEMAND

Corn demand was strong again on the week. Net export sales came in at -89 KMT, which was down 250k from a week ago. However, new-crop sales were again quite large at 2.047 mmt. Overall sales were down over a million tons but a big number nonetheless. Ethanol grind was at 106 MB, up a million bushels. Stocks were again down on the week. Basis was mixed/narrowing:

• My local basis: 9 under Sep (no change)
• Decatur: 20 over Sep (narrowed a nickel)
• St. Louis River: 22 over Sep (status-quo)

CASH CORN

Cash prices were stagnant on the week. While the board held together, most areas were flat on basis, while some were pushing for corn as some areas are running thin. We have enough corn to get to harvest, but at the same time, the trade seems a bit worried about just how big this crop is. I know most are out of old-crop, but if you have it, I would certainly shop it around. You may find someone wants it more than you think.    

2025 CORN

December 2025 corn ended the week at $4.05 ¼, down just ¼. This past week, we were dealt the mother of bearish reports. With a yield higher than the average trade guess by almost 5 bu/ac and harvested acres up 1.9 ma, I wouldn’t have been surprised to see a limit-lower move. However, we rebounded, and the corn market held together-truly astonishing in my opinion. It just shows us the trade was looking at a big yield going in, and with less-than-ideal weather to finish, thoughts we are trimming yield have been abundant. As I’ve said, the biggest worry for me is basis as we move forward. I want to have it locked in somewhere in here-I’m ok with doing basis only for now, but simply selling corn then re-owning on paper is my preference. The name of the game at this point is quantifying our worst-case scenarios and keeping some flex in our plan. Once we realize demand has to be satisfied with likely less acres in ’26, this corn market may look and feel different than we’ve seen the last few months. I’m not saying we rally through the roof by any means, but I think if we handle it properly we can have a fighting chance at getting in the black. Again, using the AgMarket app or something similar can take a ton of guesswork out of your risk-management. Let us know if we can be of assistance.    

Corn Market Theme: The corn market holding together with such a bearish report was a good sign. Cash prices for corn aren’t likely to move much higher as basis likely eats up a rally. I want to stay flexible in our plan and keep some corn ownership as I think it could pay dividends. 

SOYBEANS

Beans had a great week after a friendly report. On Friday, September beans settled up 14 ¾ at $10.22 ¼. This was ¾ off the high and 16 ½ off the low. Beans rallied 39 ¾ cents on the week. Sep meal settled 10.2 higher on the week at 286.8, while soy oil ended the week at 53.18, up .47. The bean market finally came to life. With a 2.4 ma adjustment lower in harvested acres, even a yield jump to 53.6 couldn’t keep the balance sheet bearish. The new-crop carry at 290 mb looks awful thin to me given yields could move a fair bit lower. With disease in the areas that have been wet and dryness in the east, I have to think the USDA overshot their mark a bit in August. I know for us locally, we could be shaving serious yield off of the beans on our lighter soils, while the black ground will lose bushels as well. World stocks are still adequate and with Brazil planting more beans as they always do, a person should respect rallies. However, I’d give it a little time given what we’re seeing for August weather.        

DEMAND

Soybean exports were a net cancellation for old-crop of 378k tons, down 700k from last week. However, 1.1 mmt were posted for next marketing-year, so bean exports overall were just shy of a week ago. Basis was mixed.

• My local beans: 35 under Nov (no change)
• Decatur: 20 over Nov (narrowed a dime)
• River:22 under Nov (19 cents wider)

CASH BEANS

Cash beans were up big-time this week, even with the river seeing basis widen. Given the poor export program, demand on the river is poor, to say the least. However, the big board rally bolstered cash prices in a big way. I know there are very few old-crop beans sitting around, so rewarding this rally makes sense on those gambling bushels. However, I’m not so sure I wouldn’t keep a few around in the event this dry weather keeps bean prices moving higher.  

2025 BEANS

Nov 2025 beans settled at $10.42 ½, up 55 on the week. Nov beans were rolling this week as the trade digests what lower acreage looks like along with talks the USDA could need to lower yields. Given the carry is so tight, if we lower yields, the USDA will have no choice but to lower demand as we are snug enough the way it is. In all honesty, this bean rally is the best thing that could happen overall, especially as we start to look at ’26. Beans could give support all the way around if we have to rally due to the crop underperforming. My best advice is still to see how this August weather plays out, but if you feel good about bean yields, there’s nothing at all wrong about rewarding this rally with an increment of sales. As with corn, I like keeping some flex in the plan, so if you need help with that, please reach out and we’ll help you navigate this challenging situation.

As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure your break-evens and put your plan in place:

👉 https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0  

Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.