August 22nd Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

It’s been a nice week around our place. The weather was about as good as a person could ask for with highs in the low 80s and overnight lows in the 60s. We had another small shower, so over the last week we had a couple of inches or more on every farm. After being in some of the corn and beans, I think the corn crop is above APH but not close to a record by any means. There’s phenomenal corn in places and some really common corn where we lost nitrogen and have too many ponds. Relatively speaking, our bean crop looks better. We have some serious yield potential on some of our pattern-tiled beans and even the fields with ponds should have enough good beans to make up for the zeros. The kids are getting started with some of their school-work, while Toby is golfing this fall. Fortunately, that season wraps up before we’ll be too far into harvest. I have heard from several of you reporting anything from excellent yields to train-wrecks. I appreciate the feedback. mbennett@agmarket.net.

The podcast this past week detailed weather issues of late as well as the potential impact of this Super El Nino on South American weather. Corn Belt Flooding & El Niño Threat: Will Grain Prices Surge? Grain Market Updates

The corn and bean markets both rallied sharply this past week, likely due to the ProFarmer tour numbers which were posted each day. More on that later. We still have geo-political issues yet to be resolved, which is keeping some premium in several markets. Outside markets likely provided a friendly bias:

• The US Dollar was down .830 at 98.729.
• October crude oil was up 5.59 at 87.06.
• The DOW was down 454 points at 53,353.

CORN

September ‘26 corn rallied 4 out of 5 days this past week, following along with the PF crop tour. On Friday, Sep settled at $4.83 ¾, up 5. This was ½ off the high and 9 ½ off the low. Sep rallied 24 ¾ cents for the week. Technically, this corn market continues to climb with some contracts making new contract highs. Sep isn’t quite there and with September options going off the board on Friday, we’ll have to see if it can make a new high before going off the board. The COT report showed funds bought 56k contracts as of Tuesday’s close, moving them to a net long of 182k contracts. The ProFarmer crop tour posted bullish findings every day, with some states coming in well below what the USDA has predicted. Their final estimate on Friday for the 2026 crop came in at 173.2, a whopping 7.5 bushels below the USDA! While I’m not of the opinion US yield is quite this low, IF they were to be close-the tight stocks and stocks/usage situation in the US and World would be so tight a demand-rationing rally would be potentially explosive. I am not saying we shouldn’t sell a thing, and am always willing to reward rallies at profitable levels. However, keeping some flex in this situation might be a wise thing to consider.

DEMAND

Corn demand was soft this past week. Exports came in at 233 kmt for old-crop and 816k for new, down for both old and new. Ethanol posted a decrease on the week, slipping by about 30k barrels/day to 1,089. Stocks were up. Basis was mixed:

• My local basis: 5 under Sep (a nickel improved)

• Decatur: 25 over Sep (a nickel improved)

• St. Louis River: 10 over Sep (6 cents wider)

CASH CORN

Cash prices shot higher last week. While some areas saw some basis widening, others narrowed even with the board rally. My advice of late has been to figure out a home for this old corn, as we were running out of time. Given such a big 2025 crop and thoughts we’d have 2+ bbu of corn as a carry-out, we typically don’t get a rally plus basis appreciation. With massive demand and a 2026 crop that appears to be well below a year ago, it’s been the perfect recipe for a rally. While I’m still a fan of corn ownership, old corn is going to be new here soon. I’d just watch your local basis for direction.

2026 CORN

December 2026 corn ended the week at $5.08 ½, up 25 ¼ on the week. Dec posted a new contract high this week, essentially settling a half-cent off that high on Friday. Now that we’re back above $5, the way this market is, everyone is getting bullish. Heck, I’m pretty friendly the market as well. There are plenty of good reasons to be. However, rewarding a rallying market is good business, especially when you get to profitable levels. Staying long some calls is again a great way to participate in a rally to an extent. While I’ve been 50% sold for some time at $4.50 and above basis fall delivery, I’m not in a hurry just yet to sell. Once I start selling, I’ll keep my flexibility as I believe this market could be quite strong. Here is the link for more info on the AgMarket app. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0

Corn Market Theme: The corn market kept the rally going with bullish PF tour data. Keeping some flex while rewarding rallies seems like the best strategy to me.

BEANS

Beans rallied three of five days with two sessions posting 20+ cent gains. September beans settled at $12.25, up 4 ¼. This was ¾ off the high and 15 ¼ off the low. Beans rallied 47 ¼ cents on the week. Sep meal settled up 7.5 on the week at 317.7, while soy oil was down .09, settling at 69.35. The COT report showed funds bought 43k contracts, bringing their long back up to 152k. While the PF tour showed lower bean pod counts in many of the states, there was of course plenty of moisture to help finish the beans. So, the yield for beans was actually higher than the USDA’s 52.7 at a 53.3 national yield. While corn likely gets an additional boost from such a low yield, beans might cool off initially as the wet August appears to be doing what a wet August does-make a bean crop bigger. I believe the buying for this bean market has as much to do with strong demand and concerns over the South American crop as it does the size of our crop. Therefore, the tug of war will be interesting to watch. While this is a big bean crop with solid yields on big acres, it doesn’t appear World or US stocks will be ample by any means. As with corn, rewarding rallies is tough to argue with, but I’d sure want to have some skin in the game should beans continue this rally.

DEMAND

Soybean export sales were up but still low at 85k mt for old-crop. New-crop sales were steady at 1.72 mt. Basis was mixed/widening:

• My local beans: option the Nov (2 cents improved)

• Decatur: 40 over Nov (a nickel improved)

• River: 20 over Nov (a penny wider)

CASH BEANS

Cash beans were up again on the week. These old beans will be new beans within a couple of weeks, but if harvest started a little bit late, we could see some hot bids. Keep offers current and be ready to wrap up old-crop sales before we get going on harvest.

2026 BEANS

Nov 2026 beans settled at $12.39 ½, up 47 on the week. New-crop beans certainly benefited from the low pod-counts off the tour, but they also had plenty of bullish fodder with the export sales posted this past week. It appears China and ‘unknown’ are wanting to get several of these new-crop beans locked up with the way these sales are rolling in. With many in the corn-belt having a $12 fall delivery bid offered at this point, it’s tough to argue with an incremental sale. I also believe IF we see weather issues pare back the South American crop this year, we could be looking at quite a rally. So, keeping a few calls or call spreads on might be wise as we sell more of the physical bushels.

Bean Market Theme: The bean market had a great week again, moving within earshot of new highs. This is likely to be a volatile market moving forward, so keep offers current.

As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure your break-evens and put your plan in place:

👉 https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0

Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.