Aug 25, 2025 9:00:00 AM

August 25th Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

This past week was once again a busy one. While it was nice to get the first part of the week at home, I spoke at the Illinois Bankers’ Conference on Thursday morning, then flew over to Atlanta, Indiana for Becknology days on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. On Sunday, I’ll go to Des Moines for the 50th anniversary taping of Market to Market. Farm Progress Show is this coming week, but other than that, I don’t have much going on. 😊 In seriousness, it’s a busy time where growers want to talk markets. Given a lack of chances to lock profit in this year, it’s been a challenge to say the least. One thing I can say is people still seem upbeat, and that’s a testament to the resiliency of this farming community. My wife Tiffany brought over the three younger kids so we could spend time together at Becknology Days, while our 2nd oldest came over to see the show on Saturday-it was a full week by all means. I appreciate all of your feedback-keep it coming. mbennett@agmarket.net.

My first Becknology Days are over! What a ride it has been. With record crowds for these events, I know the leadership has been excited about the momentum. I know I’m as glad as can be to be a part of it. Let me know if you want to chat or ask questions on our app or services. Here is the link for more info on the AgMarket app. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0

The corn and bean markets both rallied on the week. With the ProFarmer tour seeing a little different story than the USDA, the nightly updates kept some support for the markets. On Friday, the PF results came in after the close and it was a bit of a shock. They pegged the corn yield at 182.7 and beans at 53. With USDA at 188.8 and 53.6, I assume some enthusiasm could hit the market as doubts mount about just how big this crop is. Outside markets should have provided support.

The US Dollar was down .086 at 97.599.
October crude oil was up 1.68 at 63.66.
The DOW was up 716 points higher at 45,715.

CORN

September corn saw some buying especially towards the end of the week. On Friday, Sep settled at $3.88 ¼, up 1. This was 1 off the high and 2 ¾ off the low. Sep rallied 4 ½ cents for the week. With the ProFarmer tour providing a steady dose of data, we also saw solid demand news continue to support the market. Given we’re not far off of contract lows, it’s tough to say we’ve put a low in place just yet. However, the market appears to have support as the trade tries to digest just how much change we might see moving forward to the balance sheet. While it appears the USDA may have shown us the biggest yield in August, we can’t forget the huge increase in demand they provided along with big production. At 545 mb of additional demand for the balance sheet, we must realize a drop in production likely comes with a drop in demand. As we get ready for pre-pay on fertilizer, most of us are likely hesitant to put on the dry fertilizer we have been the last few years. All forms of nitrogen are higher, particularly phosphate as well as nitrogen. It poses a dilemma for those of us trying to efficiently give ourselves a chance at some net income in ’26. As I’ve told many of you, I’m cutting back on DAP this year as my fertility is excellent-it’s just too high for me. I hope to see the market catch some life this coming week, but don’t get too bullish if we start to rally. It’s still a big crop.

DEMAND

Corn demand was strong again on the week. Net export sales came in at -26 KMT, which was 60k improved from bigger cancellations a week ago. New-crop sales were again huge at 2.86 mmt. Overall sales were up around 900 million tons. Ethanol grind slipped to 104 MB, down two-million bushels. Stocks were a shade higher on the week. Basis was widening:

My local basis: 12 under Sep (3 cents wider)
Decatur: 15 over Sep (widened a nickel)
St. Louis River: 13 over Sep (9 cents wider)

CASH CORN

Cash prices were stagnant on the week. With a small rally on the board, cash prices didn’t improve much if any due to basis widening. Given harvest is going in the south and coming quickly for many in the corn-belt, we’ve run thin on time to get these bushels sold. We’re essentially seeing ‘quick-ship’ type bids unfold that look much better than fall basis levels. So, if we don’t move these bushels soon, we could certainly see more price deterioration without a big board rally. Our cash corn is going to be new corn as far as this newsletter goes this coming week due to the fact we will be seeing harvest continue to expand.

2025 CORN

December 2025 corn ended the week at $4.11 ½, up 6 ¼. This past week, the ProFarmer tour provided support as I said earlier. While we’d assume the 5 bushel/acre crop from the USDA August forecast might give us a big rally, it remains to be seen how much stock the trade puts in this data. PF typically comes in below the USDA in August as they did just a year ago. We must remember the USDA ended up 4 bushels/acre lower than their August number, while the PF number a year ago was 2 bu below the August number from USDA. So, could be be even lower than PF? That’s the big question. Again, we have inflated demand to deal with along with a big Brazilian crop, which is likely to hurt our exports. I’ve gotta think we struggle to see corn rally to a great extent without thoughts we continue to see the crop degraded. I still believe the best chance at a rally will be under concerns about ’26 acreage as the likelihood we take corn acres lower could provide questions as to whether we can satisfy this big demand. IF we see a rally unfold, I believe the best strategy would be incremental sales if we can creep back into the black. Again, using the AgMarket app or something similar can take a ton of guesswork out of your risk-management. Let us know if we can be of assistance.

December ’25 Corn Chart

December ’25 Corn Chart_8-23

Corn Market Theme: The corn market should get a shot in the arm from the lower estimate this past week. I would be cautious as to get too bullish just yet. I still want to stay flexible in our plan and keep some corn ownership as I think it could pay dividends.

corntheme_8.23

SOYBEANS

Beans had a good week, extending the rally we’ve enjoyed of late. On Friday, September beans settled up 2 at $10.36 ½ This was 4 off the high and 6 off the low. Beans rallied 14 ¼ cents on the week. Sep meal settled 9.9 higher on the week at 296.7, while soy oil ended the week at 54.84, up 1.66. The bean market has been on a good run after the report gave us some life earlier in the month. Given the ProFarmer tour took the yield down from 53.6 to 53, I would assume we could see additional enthusiasm, especially with the drier-biased finish in the eastern corn-belt. While I’d like to stay patient on a good percentage of bushels, rewarding a market that has rallied well over a half-dollar seems wise to me. Again, incremental sales as we rally is generally a smart move.

DEMAND

Soybean exports were a net cancellation for old-crop of 6k tons, a 350k improvement from bigger cancellations last week. 1.14 mmt were posted for next marketing-year, so bean exports overall were almost 400k higher than a week ago. Basis was mixed.

My local beans: 35 under Nov (no change)
Decatur: 5 over Nov (widened 15 cents)
River: 28under Nov (widened 6 cents)

CASH BEANS

Cash beans were steady to higher. With the runup on the board, basis widened in places as we see harvest getting underway. As with corn, we’ve run out of time on these cash beans. Also, we’ll be making ’25 beans our cash beans this coming week as old-crop bushels are few and far between anyway. If you have any left and have to get them moved, I would be sure to have a plan in place asap.

2025 BEANS

Nov 2025 beans settled at $10.58 ½, up 16 on the week and 71 cents in the last two weeks! Now that we’re back over the spring insurance price, those who feel good about yields should be considering catch-up sales. We don’t often see a 71 cent rally heading into harvest, and if history is any indication, there’s no guarantee we’ll see this rally stick around. I’ve had plenty of questions on whether I think we can see $11 again, but I want us to focus on what’s most important-profitability. When we get tied into a nice round number, it can cost us dearly. So, my best advice on beans is to lock in some worst-case scenarios while leaving room for an additional rally. IF we see this yield continue to get trimmed back, considering how tight the balance sheet currently looks, beans could stay well-supported. On the other hand, when looking at 2026 one has to realize Brazil will plant more acres again and the US grower is very likely to do the same. This makes me want to hedge risk on both ’25 and ’26 beans after such a nice runup in prices. As always, I like keeping some flex in the plan, so if you need help with that, please reach out and we’ll help you navigate this challenging situation.