July 14th Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

I hope things are going well in your part of the world. This past week was a busy one for me with plenty of road time. I drove from home up to north of Cedar Rapids on Tuesday to make a presentation before driving over to Indianapolis for one on Wednesday. I got back home before taking off with the family on Thursday for the Ozarks. While I saw a few fields here and there that had a little stress, they were few and far between. We had a JSA/AgMarket meeting on Saturday, so we made a ‘workcation’ out of it and took a couple of days in the sun. Toby, the 13-year-old wanted to stay home to play in his last league game, so he and Beau are taking care of the farm. While it’s pretty cool he wants to stay home with his team, I’d just as soon have them all with us. Summer is a tough time to take everyone though, especially when we’re getting ready for the 4H fair in a week. I appreciate the feedback-it’s incredible how few are frustrated with their crops as compared to most years. mbennett@agmarket.net.

After speaking at Dealer Summer Camp this past week, we had a ton of folks checking out the app. I encourage you to get into it and make sure to ask questions. We send e-mails out to give you a contact for any help you might need. Here is the link for more info on the AgMarket app. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0  

The corn and bean markets both took it on the chin this past week. With no good news from President Trump in Iowa last week and ample rain in many of the drier areas, the markets were on the defensive from the get-go. Even a supportive report on Friday did nothing to stem the selling. Outside markets were active with mixed signals.

• The US Dollar settled up .678 at 97.5.
• August crude oil settled 1.96 higher at 68.44.
• The DOW settled 267 points lower at 44,580.      

CORN

September corn got smoked on Monday and the rest of the week followed suit. On Friday, Sep settled at $3.96 ½, down 2 ¾. This was 5 off the high and 2 off the low. Sep lost 24 ¼ for the week. The start of the week was again plagued by a lack of positive news on the trade front while seeing big-time moisture coming into the drier parts of Illinois and Indiana. My area was on of those that had been short-changed for most of June but blessed with a couple of inches of rain as we moved towards pollination. There continues to be less areas that are showing up dry on topsoil moisture and at this time of year, that’s not going to be bullish. The USDA report on Friday showed bigger demand and lower stocks than the trade expected. With old-crop exports going up 100 mb as I’ve predicted on here, it dropped carry down to 1.34 bbu, which is under 9% stocks/use. New-crop dropped to 1.66 bbu from 1.75 after seeing lower harvested acres for this growing season in the June 30^th report combined with lower carry-in. On the world balance sheet, we say 272 mmt of corn for ending stocks, which was 5 mmt lower than the average trade guess. Most years, these numbers would propagate a double-digit rally for corn, but all it did was give the funds another chance to sell. This corn market is and has been ugly. While end-users still need corn, the market is doing them a big favor at this point. Barring a major turn of weather or some trade deals finally announced, it’s going to be tough to see a big rally.

DEMAND

Corn demand was huge on the week. Net export sales came in at 1,262 MMT, which was up over 700k from a week ago. New-crop sales were 889k, so overall sales were over 600k more than last week. Ethanol grind was at 105 MB, up a million bushels. Stocks were again down on the week. Basis was mixed:

• My local basis: 7 under Sep (3 cents wider)
• Decatur: 17 over Sep (2 cents improved)
• St. Louis River: 38 over Sep (2 cents wider)

CASH CORN

Cash prices moved lower on the week with the lower board. While some processors are pushing for quantity, posted bids weren’t anything to write home about. While I know we’ve been trying to stay patient on selling our last gambling bushels, it sure hasn’t worked out very well. I keep reminding people we’re still quite a bit higher than where we were last fall. I know we’re way off of the highs, and in all honesty, my confidence in a rally on old-crop isn’t what it was. I generally don’t like storing corn after July 4^th, but this year certainly was one that tested our patience. My best advice is to place feelers out there with some offers in to get these bushels cleaned up. My thoughts on corn price direction is it’s going to take patience on the new-crop with lower acres expected in ’26 and high fertilizer prices which could shift the narrative, especially with huge demand. I realize some store corn for a year or two but most can’t store their whole crop, let alone more than one crop.     

2025 CORN

December 2025 corn ended the week at $4.12 ¼, down 24 ¾. This past week was zero fun for new-crop. Even though we had a bullish report on Friday, the focus is on just how big this ’25 crop might get. This is a great time to use the AgMarket app with any sales already made and get your yields adjusted to see what a current break-even looks like. My biggest concern is for those who can’t store corn at home as basis this fall is likely to be wide as can be, especially for those areas who are looking at record yields. I think socking everything in storage at home is where we need to focus, especially with big carry in the market. It’s currently 35 cents from Dec to July, so for those who typically see an option or positive basis in the spring/summer, I’d think we could live with a price on July corn at $4.47. Given yields in many areas of 250 or more, the math works quite a bit better, even though I know it takes quite a bit of work. For those who need money at harvest like I do, locking in some fall sales before basis widens might be a wise idea. Stay flexible and have offers in place to best manage your risk. Using the AgMarket app or something similar can take a ton of guesswork out of your risk-management.    

Corn Market Theme: The corn market looks rough right now. I’m not bearish down here, but being friendly the market hasn’t worked for several weeks. A move below $4 seems likely while patience could prove to be a smart strategy in the long-run.

SOYBEANS

Beans also took it on the chin this past week. September beans settled 7 ¼ lower at $9.95. This was 10 ½ off the high and 3 ¾ off the low. Beans lost 46 ¼ on the week. Sep meal settled 7.4 lower on the week at 274.2, while soy oil ended the week at 53.58, down .84. The bean market is in a tailspin as well, which is interesting as we’re a long way from this crop being made. I know the corn crop is much closer to the finish line, but with beans, a dry August can change everything. The US balance sheet is very tight, while the world balance sheet isn’t quite as tight. What is interesting is we’re still fairly competitive on the world export market while seeing excellent prospects for domestic demand moving forward. It’s a great development seeing demand grow, and will be a real feather in our cap once we finally see some sort of concern on production. It may happen here this year and it may be next year, but big demand is certainly something we will see a benefit from with regards to bean prices sooner or later.      

DEMAND

Soybean exports were up from last week at 503k tons, up 40k from last week. With 248k posted for next marketing-year, bean exports overall were up 50k Basis was improving.

• My local beans: 25 under Nov (a nickel improved)
• Decatur: 25 over Nov (also a nickel improved)
• River: 36 over August (6 cents improved)

CASH BEANS

Cash beans were down on the week. While the basis continues to strengthen, it doesn’t do much good when we see the board plummet. I know there are very few cash beans out there to sell with most down to gambling bushels. However, as I said, we have the most important weather ahead of us for beans, so if you are down to gambling bushels, I’d probably keep on gambling for now. If you have more than that sitting around, as with corn, I’d be looking to get to a more manageable level.  

2025 BEANS

Nov 2025 beans settled at $10.07 ¼, down 42 on the week. Nov beans again seem to be falling a bit prematurely and is a good example of following other commodities lower. IF we could see some inclement weather coming in August, we could see a big reversal in this market. Given very tight stocks and assuming a big yield of 52.5 already, there’s certainly plenty that could shift mentality. I don’t like selling beans down here, but I also know plenty of you are like me and will need some money in the fall. I’d give this some time before making any panic sales as a dry August could put a dollar on this market pretty quick. On the flip-side, we may have to store beans if the current pattern doesn’t change.

As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure your break-evens and put your plan in place:

👉 https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0  

Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.

Matt Bennett
mbennett@agmarket.net
Work: 815-665-0462
Twitter: @chief321