December 13th Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

I hope all is well for you and yours. Around our place, we had more snow on Thursday with another 5-8 forecasted for the weekend. The snow doesn’t bug me too much, but the temps are supposed to be frigid. A high of 5 degrees for a couple of days with lows well under zero don’t sound like much fun to me, but it is what it is. I’ve been to a few meetings here lately, but I only have one more to do in this calendar year. I’ll need to enjoy the time with family as much as possible over Christmas as January is chock full of meetings. I’ll try to let people know where I’m going, and as always would welcome those of you who would like to talk in person to let me know-I always enjoy putting faces with names. If you are like me and generally wait to do your Christmas shopping we’re down to a couple of weeks, so plan accordingly. 😊 Keep in touch and let me know any questions or comments you’d like to share. mbennett@agmarket.net.

This week on the podcast we covered the USDA report from December and how I see it affecting us moving forward. Keep sending ideas on what you’d like to see covered. This week’s episode - Grain Marketing Update with Matt Bennett (12/10/2025)

I appreciate those who have reached out and/or signed up to come to our conference this February. Beck’s Hybrids is our premier seed sponsor. We’re looking forward to their presence at our event. https://web.cvent.com/event/327d2477-70a8-48b2-a270-5fb9e53dbe52/summary

The corn market lost a little ground on the week while beans continued to get smoked. While we’re seeing good bean sales to China, the combination of the pace being less than the trade seems to think it should be along with good weather in Brazil has certainly been tough on the market. Outside markets were again active on the week and were trading as such heading into the weekend.

• The US Dollar was down .580 at 98.370.
• January crude oil was down 2.83 at 57.36.
• The DOW was up 450 points at 48,466.      

CORN

March ‘26 corn had a weekly higher close going before Friday’s trade. March settled at $4.40 ¾, down 5 ¾. This was 6 ½ off the high and ¾ off the low. March lost 4 cents for the week. With Dec25 going off the board as of Friday, it would have been good technically to see March open up at $4.43 on Sunday night. That may not be the case with it closing where it did this week. The corn market certainly has shown signs of wanting to rally, but with beans getting killed of late, the weakness seems to be spilling over to corn. I still think corn could be a good value later in the marketing year, but if a person needs to move grain, it may be better to look for that opportunity before the calendar turns as a ton of corn will be moving in the new year. We can always hope for a bullish January report again, but I’ve never been much on the hope strategy.

DEMAND

Corn export demand reports keep coming in, with this week’s update from November 13^th and 2.4 mmt! Sales aren’t up-to-date just yet, but every report is impressive to say the least. Ethanol grind was around 2 mb lower, coming in at 107 MB. Stocks were steady. Basis was steady/improved:

• My local basis: 23 under March (5 cents improved)
• Decatur: option the March (no change)
• St. Louis River: 13 over March (8 cents wider)

CASH CORN

Cash prices were steady to lower on the week, depending on your location. While we’re still hearing some pushes in some areas, we’ve also heard some ethanol plants are slowing down. Margins on the spot market look to be underwater for many plants, so those not hedged may have to back off on production. This market didn’t finish the week looking strong by any means. This likely precipitates some basis strength, especially as growers have remained tight-fisted. While we’d like to see corn rallying, the weakness for soybean prices has been tough to overcome. Demand overall is impressive, so keeping some flex on bushels you sell might be wise. I don’t necessarily expect a huge rally, but with big-time demand, we definitely need to see strong production this marketing year.

2026 CORN

December 2026 corn ended the week at $4.62, down 2 ¼ cents. Dec26 didn’t do much on the week. While some growers are wanting to place hedges in the $4.70 area, the market doesn’t look like it wants to move much. As we look at 2026, it’s concerning to see Nov26 on the struggle bus of late. XS26 is around 50 cents off its highs, and if we continue to struggle, we may not see a fight for acreage like I was hoping we’d see. I still like a multi-faceted approach to risk-management while keeping flexibility a priority. It would be wise to manage some risk on rallies to lock in the ratio from corn to fertilizer while keeping some upside open the more aggressive we get. Here is the link for more info on the AgMarket app. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0

Corn Market Theme: The corn market didn’t do much on the week. While we traded higher for much of the week versus last week’s close, Friday’s weakness wiped that out. I’m still taking the same approach of sales on rallies while keeping flex.

BEANS

Beans can’t seem to catch a break. On Friday, January beans settled down 16 ¾ at $10.76 ¾. This was 17 ¾ off the high and 1 off the low. Beans lost 28 ½ cents on the week. Jan meal settled 4.9 lower on the week at 302.5, while soy oil ended the week at 50.07, down 1.62. The bean market again can’t seem to find buyers. While we haven’t closed the gap on these bean contracts, it sure looks like the trade wants to dive prices down to do so. Filling gaps will take another move lower of 10-20 cents, depending on the contract. My guess is without bullish news, we could see those gaps filled this coming week. I’m not sure this bean market is totally over just yet, but to get back on the right track, we’re going to need excellent demand news and/or a weather story to develop in Brazil. As of right now, it’s tough to see that happening as the current weather and forecast look conducive to the South Americans producing yet another big crop. Overall, the bean crop has had quite the haircut. We need to see this market catch hold here soon or I’m afraid we could be stuck back in that $9.80 to $10.80 range we were in before this market took off.

DEMAND

As with corn, we’re still seeing old export sales reports with the week ending on Nov 13^th at 696k mmt. This is a half-million tons under the previous report. Basis was steady/improved:

• My local beans:27 under Jan (a penny improved)
• Decatur: 10 over the Jan (a dime improved)
• River: 8 over the Jan (15 cents wider with Jan 1 bid +30 or 22 more than cash)

CASH BEANS

Cash beans keep moving lower. While some basis levels have improved, the big drop on the board ensured lower cash prices for these beans. While I would expect some basis levels to narrow, bean prices overall have certainly been in a free-fall. Do we expect this market to catch somewhere in here? Yes, I would think if we fill the gap on beans, we should see some buying come in-but how much remains to be seen. The gap for Jan beans is from $10.60-10.70, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see another 15-20 cent move lower. I’d keep offers in place as this market could be fairly volatile yet-hopefully, we’ll get some of that volatility to the up-side.    

2026 BEANS

Nov 2026 beans settled at $10.88 ¼, down 15 ¾ on the week. With this ’26 bean market, we’ve taken the shine off, much like the rest of the bean complex. Should we consider some sales in here? My best advice is to know your break-evens and make sure your marketing plan is set up accordingly. IF we see a big Brazilian crop and big US acres this spring, it could be tough to see these prices move back to new highs anytime soon, if at all. I still think the flexible strategies are where I’d place my hedges. If a person can lock in a floor at $11, which likely requires a ceiling up at $12 or more, it might be a good way to get started on some hedging for those who haven’t done much if anything yet. Let me know if we can help you put something like that together.

Bean Market Theme: The bean market continues to give back much of the rally with prices falling 50-90+ cents. Keep some flex in the plan and look for opportunities to sell increments on rallies.                  

As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure your break-evens and put your plan in place:

👉 https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0  

Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.