June 13th Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

I hope you’ve had a great week. My week was good with some warmer temps in the day up to 80 or so-while evenings have been cool. We don’t have near the smoke some to the north have, but it’s certainly cooled things off with the smoke/cloud cover we’re all dealing with. While it wasn’t a great week for hay, it looks like next week we’ll get a shot at it. Some guys around here are side-dressing, but I’m not sure there’s quite as much as usual. Given prices on 28%, I’m hearing a few have backed off ‘throwing everything’ at this crop. Given prices, it’s understandable. We’re down to one kid playing ball this summer, but he’s on a travel team as well. So, this weekend, we’ll go over to Indianapolis for a tourney, and then a couple more weekends before he’s got that part wrapped up. We live close to Lake Shelbyville, so the family has been after me about heading to the lake-can’t do that until hay and travel baseball is over with has been my answer. 😊 I appreciate all of the e-mails these last couple of weeks. Keep me posted on how things are going around your place. I’m interested to hear about the state of your crops. Most have said corn looks solid and beans not as impressive. mbennett@agmarket.net.

We’ve had quite a few people check out our app already. Be sure to reach out if you have any questions. Again, Beck’s is putting the app in the customer rewards program, so those of you interested may want to use 3 points instead of buying it-it’s a better deal for you due to Beck’s commitment to what we’re doing here. Here is a link for more info on the AgMarket app. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0  

The corn market had plenty of ups and downs on the week while essentially going nowhere when it was all said and done. Beans were showing losses on the week before the RVO volumes came out Friday morning. That erased the losses as well as ending up with weekly gains. The June WASDE report was as expected, so we didn’t get any big moves there. Outside markets were active with mixed signals. The following prices are where we were trading late in the session but before the close on Friday.

• July crude was trading 5.31 higher on Friday at 31-up 8.76 on the week
• The Dollar was trading up .284 at 185, down .950 for the week
• The DOW was down 845 on Friday, settling at 42,145-up 627 for the week      

CORN

July corn was lower on the week up until a nice market Friday ensured small weekly gains. July settled at $4.44 ½, up 6. This was ¾ off the high and 9 ½ off the low. July rallied 2 cents for the week. With a friendly USDA report on Thursday, one might think the market would have a positive reaction. Exports were revised 50 mb for old-crop, lowering the carry-out to 1.365 bbu, while new-crop carry was lowered to 1.75 bbu. These were both in the range of guesses but below the average thoughts of the trade. Even with the US Dollar making three-year lows, the corn market couldn’t take that positive report and rally on Thursday. Friday was a different story, though. With the renewable fuel standards being released on Friday morning at higher levels than most in the industry anticipated, the bean market soard to 20+ cent gains, which inevitably spilled over to the corn market. We maintain some patience with this corn market as we’ve seen it stabilize over the last couple of weeks. It’s tough to be bearish when the USDA is calling for tight stocks for the crop we just planted while assuming a record yield at 95 million-acres. I still like selling rallies while keeping some flexibility on this corn.

July 2025 Corn Chart

DEMAND

Corn demand was mixed on the week. Net export sales came in at 791 KMT, which was off 150k from a week ago. Even with the USDA raising exports, we’re still running ahead of the pace to meet their goal. Ethanol grind was at 109 MB, up 2 million bushels and the highest we’ve seen in 3 months. Stocks were much lower than anticipated, highlighting strong demand. Basis is steady:

• My local basis: 18 under July (two cents improved)
• Decatur: 8 over July (no change)
• St. Louis River: 23 over July (two cents improved)

CASH CORN

Cash prices were steady/improved on the week. While we were lower on the week coming into Friday, cash bids improved as basis held together on a nice move higher. As the board has floundered recently, some of these end-users have narrowed their basis as some of them have coverage running out. Given this, it appears IF we finally get some sort of a weather scare, the grower who is holding onto corn might see the pop they’ve been waiting on. As I’ve said many times, I don’t want to have more than gambling bushels, but at the same time, a person may as well see how this weather unfolds in the next week or two before letting them go. With cash corn finally seeing some upward movement as we enter the most critical time in the growing season, we’ll essentially be playing russian roulette with the market. That’s why I don’t want to try and get too cute. Let me know if we can help you navigate what is bound to be a volatile market.

2025 CORN

December 2025 corn ended the week at $4.43, down 6 ¼. Dec corn didn’t fare as good as old-crop, but did post a 2 ½ cent rally on Friday to pare the losses somewhat. Given crop condition ratings continue to improve with advantagous forecasts for much of the corn-belt, the fund seem disinterested in owning any new-crop corn at all. Typically, we’ll get some weather premium in this market at this time of year, but there hasn’t been much reason to do so. Most long-term forecasts still call for dryness in the west for July-Sep, and in my video with Eric Snodgrass this past week, he is still in that camp. IF we get that hotter, drier weather to unfold, we’ll likely see a fair bit of buying by the big money players while farmers will be unlikely to sell much if worried about their crop prospects. My best advice is to have some calls in place now, which should give you the confidence to reward the market on any upward movement. You could then make the sale knowing you will participate if it goes on higher, thus mitigating any thoughts of selling ‘too soon’. As always, I want to look for opportunities to hedge off risk while staying flexible. Let us know if we can help you navigate this risk. Using the AgMarket app or something similar can take a ton of guesswork out of your risk-management.    

Corn Market Theme: I remain patient on both old and new. With corn posting a nice rally on Friday, we’ve got to hope it’s s sign of things to come. Continue to stay flexible, keeping offers in place above the market.

SOYBEANS

Beans saw some buying on Friday, which ensured weekly gains. July closed at $10.69 ¾, up 27 ½ on Friday. This was 1 ¼ off the high and 29 off the low. Beans were up 12 ¼ on the week. Meal settled 3.8 lower on the week at 291.9, while soy oil ended the week at 50.61, up 3.11. Soy oil was locked up the limit on Friday, which likely extends into this coming week. Given the renewable fuel standards were favorable, the crush industry, which needed a lifeline, got one with the new volumes. This is certainly good news for the soybean complex, especially the US grower. Given we continue to lose export volume to the South American grower, domestic consumption of beans is essential moving forward. The US trade delegation also announced a trade deal with China, which most assume will be favorable towards beans continuing to be exported to our biggest customer. Given uncertainties around this prospect the last few months, this bean situation looks much better than many of us assumed we might be dealing with. The USDA report on Thursday offered no input with zero changes to either the old or new-crop balance sheets-while keeping South American production unchanged. I’m not necessarily bullish beans, but this news is all supportive. IF we see a run back to $11 on any contract, it should be respected and possibly rewarded if a person can make those prices work on your individual farms.     

DEMAND

Soybean exports came in at a marketing-year low at 61k tons, 130k lower than last week. With beans competitive globally, these bean exports have been a pleasant surprise, especially for this time of year. Basis plummeted in many areas:

• My local beans: 30 under July (12 cents wider)
• Decatur: 60 over Nov (62 cents wider)
• River: 21 over July (3 cents wider)

CASH BEANS

Cash beans were mixed depending on where you were. In a wild basis move, that ADM Decatur facility that is 40 miles up the road from us, dropped basis from 22 over the July to 20 under the Nov on Wednesday. This was essentially a 60-cent drop in cash prices!! Several of their other crush facilities did the same and as you can see on my local bid, some of the small elevators didn’t see a similar drop. Part of this is likely due to there not being many beans to buy ‘out in the country’. Interestingly, many have lamented this was done due to crush margins struggling of late, so a slow-down in crush might be in the works. However…seeing what happened on Friday, I’m not so sure that will be the case. Given margins are likely to improve with bean oil rallying sharply, crush may actually hang in there. If I had gambling bushels, I’d probably keep them a bit longer, but as with corn, I wouldn’t want to hold onto too many.

2025 BEANS

Nov 2025 beans settled at $10.54 ¾, a rally of 17 ¾ on the week. Nov beans also took advantage of the news on Friday, rallying 27 ½ cents on the day. This puts beans a shade above that February average we set for crop insurance. Contrary to corn, we’ve gotten over that level a few times now. While I’d like to ratchet up sales as we rally, I like selling in increments as to spread out the risk. With that being said, having some calls in place as we do with corn might be a good plan. IF we see this bean market go back to $11, I’ll have some more beans sold before we get there. If we trade over that level and you haven’t sold any yet, I think you need to remember from where it was we came from. This market no doubt has had all of us scared the last few weeks, so rewarding a rally might be something a guy considers.

Bean Market Theme: This bean market has put together a couple of good weeks. As resilient as beans have been, be careful to not get too bulledup. Selling rallies in increments would be advisable, but consider keeping some flexibility.

July 2025 Soybean Chart

As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure your break-evens and put your plan in place:

👉 https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0  

Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.

Matt Bennett
mbennett@agmarket.net
Work: 815-665-0462
Twitter: @chief321