December 8th Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

I hope your week was a good one. Mine wasn’t too bad, but man, it’s cold. I had to go to town on Friday at 5 a.m. to record Joe Vaclavik’s podcast, and the temperature was 5 degrees. I know some of you farther north might make fun of me there, but we usually don’t see those temps for another few weeks. We had close to a foot of snow last week, so we’ve had as much as we generally get all winter. Some of the longer-term maps show us getting significant snow this winter, but I won’t complain, as we could use any moisture we can get. The issue, of course, is how much of that we’ll get in the ground now that we’re frozen. Keep in touch and let me know any questions or comments you’d like to share.

Last week on the podcast we covered hedging 2026 corn and how we can try to work into some $5 corn for our bushels going in the bin next fall. Keep sending ideas on what you’d like to see covered. CLICK HERE to watch last week’s episode. 

I appreciate those who have reached out and/or signed up to come to our conference this February. Beck’s is our premier seed sponsor. We’re looking forward to their presence at our event. CLICK HERE to learn more.

The corn and bean markets both lost some ground on the week. While beans were weak, especially on Friday, corn looked steady but saw spillover pressure from a weak bean market. With big question marks on how the US/Chinese soybean program, longs seem to be losing interest with conflicting messages coming from our government. The lack of a major weather issue in South America isn’t helping matters. Outside markets were again active on the week and were trading as such heading into the weekend.

• The US Dollar was down .458 at 98.950
• January crude oil was up 1.64 at 60.19
• The DOW was up 273 points at 48,016      

CORN

March 2026 corn looked like we might settle higher for the week, but weakness in soybeans wore heavy on the corn market. March settled at $4.44 ¾, down 2 ½. This was 3 ¼ off the high and ¾ off the low. March lost 3 cents for the week. While on Friday, it looked like we had a shot at a higher close for the week and a close above the 200-day moving average, we lost steam with the bean market showing double-digit losses. Demand for corn remains stellar, and with many clamoring for the USDA to lower its yield in the coming reports, it seems the market has plenty supporting it. South American production is far from a given at this point, as this Safrinha crop is likely going in the ground a little later than they’d prefer. With the bean planting running behind normal, it means the second-crop corn will go in a little later as well. This could be supportive and highlight the need for ideal weather this coming spring. Overall, the corn market looks solid, but it’s going to be tough to rally if this bean market rolls over. We sure need to see beans stabilize. I still think the incremental sales on rallies make sense while keeping some ownership and flex.

DEMAND

Corn export demand reports keep coming in, with this week’s update from October 30 and 2 mmt! We continue to lag where we are currently, which is aggravating to say the least. Ethanol grind was around 1 mb higher, coming in at 109 MB. Stocks were up from a week ago. Basis was steady/improved:

• My Local Basis: 28 under March (no change)
• Decatur: Option the March (a nickel improved)
• Louis River: 21 over March (15 cents improved)

CASH CORN

Cash prices were steady on the week, with the river showing better cash bids. While most basis levels have remained steady, some are seeing strong pushes as many growers have the bin doors locked. The next few weeks might be the best chance to move some corn for a bit, given we’ll have lighter travel due to a reluctant farmer and growers who need a solid push to consider selling. I like moving some bushels if we can get a push, but I might consider keeping some ownership on paper. IF we see any weather issues in SA and/or China come in to buy corn, we could certainly give this corn market a shot of excitement. I’m not trying to be bullish, but with record demand for the world and the U.S., any supply disruptions will be closely watched.

2026 CORN

December 2026 corn ended the week at $4.64 ¼, down 4 cents. December 2026 continues to flirt with $4.70, which was last spring’s insurance price. While it’s no home run, it might be a decent place to hedge off some risk for those who can make these prices work. If we set a floor in place with a ceiling at $5 or above, we can get a price, basis the board, that is fairly attractive, maybe even above the current market for an aggressive position. Hedging at $4.70 and above is again a nice place to hedge off some risk, particularly if we’re planning on the hedge for bin bushels. We could roll that hedge to July later for a price of $5 and above for our 2026 corn. It all boils down to locking in revenue, so we need to keep tabs on our break-even points. CLICK HERE for more info on the AgMarket app. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0

Corn Market Theme: The corn market was dead this past week and seemed to follow soybeans lower. We need an increase in already strong demand and/or a supply issue to push us higher. I’d consider rewarding rallies incrementally but keeping some flex.

SOYBEANS

Soybeans were lower four out of five days, with Friday posting double-digit losses. On Friday, January beans settled down 14 ¼ at $11.37 ¾. This was 15 ¾ off the high and ¾ off the low. Beans lost 32 ½ cents on the week. Jan meal settled 11.3 lower on the week at 307.4, while soy oil ended the week at 51.69, down .36. The bean market really stunk it up this past week. The trade had a much different feel to it as buyers were on the sidelines. It seems confidence is much lower in China in fulfilling their trade obligations, particularly by the end of the calendar year. With Secretary Bessent indicating they were ‘on-time’ but that they had until the end of February, the trade was aggravated by the news. Given we’ve been told those sales would be wrapped up by the end of December, it seems there is quite a bit of confusion about what exactly is supposed to take place. With the lack of a signed trade agreement, the trade seems unsettled. While Argentina and southern Brazil are on the warmer, drier side, most estimates for Brazilian production are at 170 mmt or more, indicating a big crop is on the way. Beans need to stay above $11, or I’m afraid we could lose even more of what we’ve gained. Let’s hope we find some buying this coming week.

DEMAND

As with corn, we’re seeing old export sales reports with the week ending on Oct 30^th at 1.25 mmt. While a decent number, we need up-to-date numbers. Basis was steady/improved:

• My Local Beans: 28 under January (No Change)
• Decatur: Option the January (No Change)
• River: 23 over the January (16 Cents Improved)

CASH BEANS

Cash beans moved lower this past week. Even with basis narrowing on the river, cash prices were a fair bit lower. The drop on the board wasn’t a good sign at all, especially if the market moves below $11. Typically, when we move over $11, we have a darn good shot at seeing $12 beans. However, we haven’t had enough fuel in the tank to propel us there just yet. Will we get a shot again? I’m not totally giving up, as a weather issue in South America could certainly provide some pop. If we do indeed move lower than $11, a person would want to have a plan to move more of their old beans soon, especially if we see South American weather continue to project a big crop. Know what your plan is moving forward, and make sure you have offers in with your originator, knowing what it’s going to take to get them out of your hands.    

2026 BEANS

November 2026 beans settled at $11.04, down 14 ½ on the week. With this 2026 bean market, we’ve sold 40% of the beans on mostly limited-risk positions. While those positions look rough when we’re rallying, they sure feel good when we’re moving lower. I know many of you have put floors in place for 2026, given we saw the best bean prices we’ve seen in over a year. Pease let us know if you need guidance, either for positions already on or for those with an interest in seeing what we can do now. We can still put an $11 floor in place with the chance to participate in a rally up to and over $12-and do it for 25 cents or less. Let me know if we can help you put something like that together.

Bean Market Theme: The bean market lost all its momentum this past week. We need to see $11 hold this coming week. Keep in mind beans are still over a dollar above where we were this past fall.  

As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure out your break-evens and put your plan in place:

👉 https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0  

Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.