July 13th Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

I hope all is well on your operation. While we’d been fairly hot and dry, I haven’t been too worried as we had rain forecasted for this week. Our farms had a shower, but the totals were .2-.5, so it wasn’t a soaker by any means. We’ll take it regardless. Tons of fungicide is going on both corn and beans locally as growers try to get ahead of what is likely to be an active season for disease considering how wet it’s been. With ballgames and 4H fair coming up, we’ve been busy as heck otherwise. Keep me posted on your crops and the weather-I appreciate the updates. mbennett@agmarket.net.

This week on the podcast we covered the big rally on Monday as well as what we might see moving the markets moving forward. Here’s the link. Protecting Your Profits: Grain Market Update with Matt Bennett

The corn and bean markets came out firing on all cylinders on Monday, extended some gains on Tuesday then gave back some of those gains on Wednesday and Thursday. Fortunately, we ended the week on a positive note with solid gains on Friday. The USDA report was friendly for corn and neutral beans, but the biggest news of Friday was the wheat market, which soared due to a ship bombing in the Black Sea, calling into question wheat exports. Outside markets likely provided a mixed bias:

• The US Dollar was up .134 at 100.755.
• August crude oil was up 2.63 at 71.41.
• The DOW was down 256 points at 52,906.

CORN

September ‘26 corn came out firing to start the week, gave some back midweek but finished strong on Friday. Sep settled at $4.39 ½, up 8. This was ½ off the high and 12 ¾ off the low. Sep rallied 16 ½ cents for the week. Technically, this corn market looks better than it has in some time. We made a run at the cluster of moving averages right around $4.70 but couldn’t get through it just yet. If we can, it could certainly open up some more buying under the right circumstances. The Commitment-of-Traders showed funds bought 52k contracts, paring the net short back to 15k as of Tuesday’s close. The USDA report on Friday was friendly versus expectations and reflected what we’ve been discussing since the NASS report on June 30^th. Corn usage for old-crop increased 125 mb, taking ending stocks down to 2.02 bbu. Demand for new-crop went up 50mb, but with the combination of carry-in being lowered, we saw ending stocks come down 170mb to 1.79 bbu. This gives us stocks-to-use at 11%. Essentially, this report says we need the trend-line yield of 183 or we’ll see this balance sheet tighten significantly-especially with USDA still calling for new-crop demand to be 325 mb lower than old-crop. Demand doesn’t generally go down without a rally, and we haven’t rallied enough to pare back demand. While I’m not outright bullish, this tightening of stocks certainly gives reason for a grower to be flexible in marketing moving forward.

DEMAND

Corn demand was mixed this past week. Exports came in at 566 kmt for old-drop and 402k for new, similar to a week ago. Corn grind for ethanol posted a decrease on the week, coming in at 104 mb. Stocks were down. Basis was mostly improved:

• My local basis: 15 under Sep (no change)

• Decatur: 16 over Sep (no change)

• St. Louis River: 39 over Sep (a penny wider)

CASH CORN

Cash prices were improved on the week. With the nice rally, basis held in there in most areas. This time of year with plenty of corn yet, it’s something to pay attention to. I know many of you have asked about getting offers in and where to put them. Given we’re a month or so from harvest in the south, you must remember in those areas where there’s still plenty of corn, basis at some point will likely get ugly. Now, a weather rally could certainly help cash prices along with a new-crop rally, but in that event, depending on where you’re located, you might lose as much basis as you gain on cash. Illinois and east seems to be holding together quite nicely, but west is where I’d be a bit worried. Have that plan in place to get bushels moved and see if the weather over the next week or two igves us a boost. I wouldn’t let it go too long.

2026 CORN

December 2026 corn ended the week at $4.61, up 19 ½ on the week. Dec corn rallied sharply on Monday as talk of a hot July through much of the corn-belt was in the long-range maps. Some of that fervor has died down as many of those maps have backed off of the longevity and intensity of the heat. How we trade from here on out will be highly correlated to weather. There’s no doubt we need a big yield with 3 ½ million-acres less planted this year. At a 183 yield, this year’s production is forecasted to be 1 billion-bushels lower than a year ago! IF the heat and dryness affect any region to a great degree, I’d expect to take a look at the old highs for corn, but ideal weather from here on out likely keeps us range-bound. For those who have half of your crop sold like me, I’d be hesitant to get too aggressive on sales before we learn more about this weather. For bushels that have to go to the elevator, using some of this strength we’ve seen in the market makes sense. I’m not a fan of commercial storage if we can avoid it. I still feel like on-farm storage will pay dividends again, so keep that as a consideration. Here is the link for more info on the AgMarket app. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0

Corn Market Theme: The corn market had a nice week. Weather likely determines if we see follow-through buying.

BEANS

Beans also started the week rallying sharply, gave some back and finished on Friday with nice gains. August beans settled at $11.91 ¾, up 14. This was 5 ½ off the high and 21 ¾ off the low. Beans rallied 55 ½ cents on the week. August meal settled up 14.9 on the week at 320.4, while soy oil also rallied, settling at 70.46, up 3.69. The bean market was supported more by Chinese buying than it was weather-in my opinion anyway. Given beans are an August crop, that assumption is an easy one to make. Regardless, a move like this is certainly impressive, especially with world supplies still ample. I would point out they aren’t growing, which indicates demand is strong as South America had another mammoth crop. The USDA report made few changes, keeping new-crop ending stocks at 310 mb, which is certainly snug. This bean market has been impressive to say the least, and is an indication of strong US and global demand, brought on in large part by soy oil being used for renewable diesel. Respecting rallies but keeping some flex is how I think we should view this market moving forward. The swing could continue in an intense fashion.

DEMAND

Soybean export sales were up but still paltry at 54 kmt for old-crop. New-crop sales were 408k. Basis was mixed:

• My local beans: 15 under August (no change)

• Decatur: 35 over August (a nickel improved)

• River: 40 over (10 cents improved)

CASH BEANS

Cash beans were up sharpy on the week. In some areas where we see crush plants, bean bids have been impressive. I’d caution those with old beans that the last couple of years crushers slowed down heading into harvest. While I don’t expect that as much this year due to huge crush margins, we must realize, as with corn, we’re getting closer to harvest every day. I’d get a plan in place to move these beans and focus on new-crop.

2026 BEANS

Nov 2026 beans settled at $11.90 ¾, up 43 on the week. New beans had a nice week as well but weren’t as impressive as old beans. With plenty of acres coming for this growing season, it’s understandable we’d see buyers a little hesitant. However, a 53-bu yield that the USDA is predicting is far from a given. The bean crop is at 64% good/excellent, and with plenty of yellow beans in the corn-belt, it’s going to take a good August to consider any yield north of that. Moves over $12 should be considered to be rewarded in my opinion but only if the grower knows they can make money and with a thought of flexibility. IF yields are sub-par this fall, there’s no doubt bean price action could be impressive.

Bean Market Theme: The bean market was on a tear last week. Keeping flexibility and offers in place should be top-of-mind.

As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure your break-evens and put your plan in place:

👉 https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0

Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.