July 16th Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

I hope you’re having a great week so far. While some of you are still hurting for rain, it seems the bulk of people have had enough rain, if anything, too much. I’ve talked to a few folks from Iowa who have seen 5-10 inches in the last week or two. While I always say you can’t have too much rain in July, there’s no doubt it can get to that point. The problem with these big rains is the wind that can come with it. Overall, this has been a wild year for weather, with forecasts for drought coming up quite inaccurate. Some indications of a high-pressure ridge coming in next week have been discussed, so we’ll see if this pattern holds. My son has his last baseball games this week, but next week is 4H fair, so there’s no respite for several days. Keep the correspondence coming. For more info on AgMarket, click here. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0  

The corn market has closed higher for two consecutive days, believe it or not. The bean market has continued to leak off as talks of bean yields growing from early indications continue. Again, the weather doesn’t look threatening, so the trade hasn’t gotten too excited just yet. Trade/tariff talk hasn’t provided much enthusiasm as well, so rallies have been tough to come by. Outside markets should have provided a mixed bias:

• The US Dollar settled up .547 at 310.
• August crude oil settled .46 lower at 52.
• The DOW settled 445 points lower at 44,247.  

CORN

 The corn market saw some selling on the first two days of the week, but both days ended with positive gains. Sep corn closed 1 ¼ higher at $4.01 ¼. This was 5 off the high and 6 ¼ off the low. With a 4-cent higher close on Monday, this bean market has found at least some buying. Weekly export inspections were down from the previous week at 1.28mmt. This is 200k tons less than a week ago, but still ahead of the pace needed to reach the new USDA goal. The good-excellent rating came in at 74%, which was the same as a week ago. While the crop didn’t get rated better, there’s no doubt a crop rated this good is thought to potentially set a new record, and current expectations are that our new record yield could be well above the 181 currently forecasted by the USDA. As I’ve said of late, the biggest issue I have are those bushels that can’t be stored at home. If that’s the boat you’re rowing in, using some of these up days might be a good time to get some bushels priced to where you don’t have to accept a wide basis at harvest. Regardless, I’d keep your flexibility if you’re choosing to sell. In my opinion, acres for 2026 could be well below this year, so a paradigm shift in corn mentality could come for those wanting to make their storage pay. December corn was up 1 ¾ on Tuesday, settling at $4.19 ¾.   

September ’25 Corn Chart

SOYBEANS

Soybeans haven’t participated in the up markets this week with loser closes on both Monday and Tuesday. September beans were down 1 ¾ on Monday before settling 6 lower on Tuesday at $9.87 ¼. This was 8 ¼ off the high and 1 ½ off the low. Soybean meal was down 2.3 at 269.5, while soy oil was up .43 at 54.42. Soybean export inspections were well below a week ago at 147k tons. This total was 240k less than a week ago and below expectations. The good/excellent rating came in at 70%, which was a 4% increase from a week ago. This is likely the culprit for a tough market on Tuesday, as the trade might think this bean crop could be a bin-buster as well. In all honesty, we have a ton of weather to go through before assuming a big bean crop. However, given how much rain we’ve had recently, it’s understandable to think the beans are looking quite a bit better. A high-pressure ridge has been forecasted to come in this next week, so if that were to occur, this selling would likely dry up. Regardless, I think it’s imperative to stay flexible; that doesn’t mean we don’t sell rallies but having some flex in place in the event we turn off hot and dry is sound business. On Tuesday, November beans closed 5 ¼ lower at $10.01 ¾.

September ‘25 Soybean chart

Matt Bennett
mbennett@agmarket.net
Work: 815-665-0462
Twitter: @chief321