July 19th Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

I hope all is well for you and yours. This was supposed to be our last week of baseball for the summer, but getting to wrap up the season has been more about dodging storms. On Wednesday night, we drove Toby to his game about an hour from home only to watch a downpour put us off a day. Then, I flew up to Minneapolis to speak at a Beck’s event, which meant I’d have to miss his game. While I try to avoid that as much as possible, it’s tough to plan around a rainout. They started his game on Thursday and four innings in, more rain. So, at least I’ll get home on Friday to catch the last three innings. The crazy thing about these rains is how spotty they’ve been. We’ve had enough rain on most of our farms to feel good about heading into this heat next week. But man is it going to get hot if these forecasts verify. Night-time lows in the high-70s or even 80 concerns me a bit, but it is that time of year when we can see these high-pressure domes setting up. With our 4H fair this next week, I’m a bit concerned with the heat so keeping them cool could be a chore. As for how the crop looks, we all know how to this point it’s a banger-but Mother Nature may take the shine off if this heat verifies. It’s been great to meet many of you as I’ve been out speaking-and I appreciate all the e-mails on how things are going. Feel free to keep me posted. mbennett@agmarket.net.

After speaking at Dealer Summer Camp again this past week, we have more people using the app every day. Please don’t hesitate if you need any help navigating it. We send e-mails out to give you a contact for any help you might need. Here is the link for more info on the AgMarket app. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0  

The corn and bean markets both rallied this past week. Yes, you read that correctly-we actually saw some buying come in. While the crop is rated in excellent shape on both sides, big-time heat is likely over the next several days, which has spooked the market. With little in the way of trade/tariff progress, it’s all about weather. Outside markets were active with mixed signals. These prices are just before Friday’s close.  

• The US Dollar settled up .715 at 98.215.
• August crude oil settled 1.07 lower at 67.37.
• The DOW settled 26 points lower at 44,552.      

CORN

September corn had a supported tone for most of the week with 4 of 5 days on the plus side. On Friday, Sep settled at $4.08 ½, up 6 ½. This was 2 ½ off the high and 6 off the low. Sep rallied 12 for the week. The start of the week looked like we’d continue to lower as we dipped down to a contract low at $3.91 ¼ on Monday’s session, but we reversed higher and closed up at $4. With the crop still rated 74% good/excellent, a positive close on Tuesday and again Wednesday was a welcome sign. Essentially, the funds are likely covering their short positions due to the heat we’re seeing not only for daytime highs but nighttime lows. Last year, the funds started covering their huge short position at this time, and you wonder if this heat is going to precipitate the same process of buying all those short positions back. While I don’t want us getting too bulled up here, I sure hope we can be flexible in how we approach this market. I’ve felt all along the market would perform better than it has due to strong fundamentals-but the market hasn’t cooperated to this point. IF we see weather take the shine off of this crop, you can expect some corn to be good property moving forward due to tight US and world stocks. I think storing corn could pay good dividends and those bushels we have to take to town should get priced before basis gets too wide. And for me, I’ll keep calls bought for those bushels I sell as I again think we’ll want to have some corn ownership moving forward.

DEMAND

Corn demand was down on the week. Net export sales came in at 98 KMT, which was down over a million tons from a week ago. New-crop sales were 566k, so overall sales were 1.5 mt lower. Ethanol grind was at 105 MB, essentially unchanged. Stocks were again down on the week. Basis was mixed:

• My local basis: 7 under Sep (no change)
• Decatur: 18 over Sep (a penny improved)
• St. Louis River: 38 over Sep (no change)

CASH CORN

Cash prices appreciated on the week with the board rallying and basis holding steady. With some of these end-users running tight on corn, I assume we’ll see basis hold together, even if we continue to rally. However, we’re getting closer to harvest every day, so we have to keep some offers in on these last bushels we have to sell. While the hope would be we take off if this weather gives the opportunity, selling incrementally into a rally is what I’ve always preferred, so those with several bushels left might consider keeping offers as current as possible. The thing to remember about weather rallies is they can be over as quickly as they get started, so do your best to not get too stingy here.

2025 CORN

December 2025 corn ended the week at $4.27 ¾, up 15 ½. This past week was zero fun for new-crop. With new-crop finally catching a bid, I feel quite a bit better about those bushels we need to sell this fall. If we’re trying to find a spot to start selling, it has to depend on how comfortable you are with current production projections for your crop. If you have an above APH crop on the way, be sure to plug that into the app to figure out what prices work on your farm. I gotta think we can push back to $4.50 and above IF this weather is as hot as forecasted. So, your first spot for some sales might make sense in that area. Officially, our recommendation is to sell some corn around $4.58, but again, every farm is different. If you have bushels you know you can’t store, we don’t want to wait until we go across the scale in my opinion-especially if this crop is a trend-line yield or better. It all boils down to knowing your break-even and making sure your marketing plan is based on your own profitability. Let us know if we can help you navigate that process as I know it can be a bit stressful, especially in a year like this. Again,using the AgMarket app or something similar can take a ton of guesswork out of your risk-management.    

Corn Market Theme: The corn market has a pulse finally. Don’t get too bullish on rallies and look for chances to lock in some profit. I still think patience could prove to be a smart strategy in the long-run.

September ’25 Corn Chart

SOYBEANS

Beans also rallied this past week. On Friday, September beans settled 9 higher at $10.21. This was 6 ½ off the high and 10 off the low. Beans rallied 26 on the week. Sep meal settled 4.2 higher on the week at 278.4, while soy oil ended the week at 53.64, up .06. The bean market didn’t join the rally party until midweek, when on Wednesday we posted double-digit gains. I’ve felt of late that this selling for beans was premature as we all know beans are an August crop. Given tight stocks in the US and some enthusiasm for renewable diesel, the fundamentals are certainly positive. World stocks have held beans down for some time, but with how tight our new-crop balance sheet is for the US and this crop far from being made, it’s been a head-scratcher. Heck, we currently have a 52.5 yield from the USDA, which could be a tall order if this heat sets in for any amount of time. My best advice when it comes to this bean market is to keep some flexibility as we hedge off risk on any strength. Keep those offers in place where you can be profitable-but keep enough flex that we can participate if this market continues higher.

DEMAND

Soybean exports were down from last week at 272k tons, down 330k from last week. With 248k posted for next marketing-year, bean exports overall were down over 300k. Basis was widening a bit.

• My local beans: 25 under Nov (no change)
• Decatur: 20 over Nov (a nickel wider)
• River: 34 over August (2 cents wider)

CASH BEANS

Cash beans were up on the week but with basis widening in some areas, we saw prices up just a bit less than the board. It’s typical to see basis widening with up markets, so it’s not all that surprising. Additionally, bean crushers can slow down at times with harvest approaching, so basis doesn’t always hold together. This year we see bean oil strong as continued optimism has impacted bean prices, so this little rally isn’t that hard to fathom. I know most of you don’t have a bunch of beans sitting around, so we’re likely down to gambling bushels. If this market takes off on heat, I’d sure have offers in place to get those cleaned up.  

2025 BEANS

Nov 2025 beans settled at $10.35 ¾, up 28 ½ on the week. Nov beans had a nice little week, finishing with some strength on Friday. Given the forecast, it’s not hard to imagine we’d see some strength. IF we are still talking excessive heat on Sunday night, we could certainly see this rally continue. Given we’re back closer to this $10.50 area, for those who haven’t sold anything yet, we may get offers in at a level we can live with. Again, we can’t forget that rallies can be over just as quick as they show up. I think we have a fighting chance at the $11 area again, but we’ll certainly need some help from Mother Nature. I don’t want to see my bean yields get hit by any means, but at the same time, some weather issues could improve our bottom lines a fair bit. There is no doubt, as with corn, we could see some wide basis levels during harvest, so if you always sell your beans at harvest, I’d be looking for some targets to hedge off some risk on any rallies. First one I’d look at would likely be closer to $10.60. As always, keep some flex in your program and consider keeping some long calls in place to help you make those sales, knowing you can participate in an additional rally.

September ‘25 Soybean chart

As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure your break-evens and put your plan in place:

👉 https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0  

Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.

Matt Bennett

mbennett@agmarket.net
Work: 815-665-0462
Twitter: @chief321