July 27th Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

We were dry yet again this past week. We had a chance for a shower, and due to our county fair going on, I assumed we’d get it. It seems like fair week almost always brings some rain. However, it didn’t happen. We’re not in dire need just yet, but if we go another week or two with no rain, we’ll have taken our crop backwards around home. The bean crop can likely wait on a rain for longer, but we’re also hoping we don’t abort any pods due to how dry we’ve gotten. It really was a fest in June and famine in July kind of year so far for us. I appreciate all of the feedback on your farms at home. Keep me posted if you get a chance. mbennett@agmarket.net.

For the podcast we covered some new tools AgMarket will be using to help manage risk. Here’s the link. Protecting Your Profits: Grain Market Update with Matt Bennett

The corn and bean markets continued to move higher this past week, partially supported by a wheat market that was seeing some buying come in due to issues in the Black Sea region continuing. Weather is far from ideal with most models keeping a good chunk of the corn-belt dry for the next few days. Outside markets likely provided a friendly bias:

• The US Dollar was up .811 at 101.325.
• September crude oil was up 8.74 at 90.52.
• The DOW was down 531 points at 52,375.

CORN

September ‘26 corn started the week with some strength again and was able to hold onto solid gains. Sep settled at $4.64 ¼, up ¼. This was 3 ¾ off the high and 8 ¾ off the low. Sep rallied 19 ½ cents for the week. Technically, this corn market has now moved above all moving ranges. This is certainly friendly as it could potentially open up more buying, especially if the right conditions occur. The Commitment-of-Traders showed funds bought 45k contracts, getting them to a net long of 57k contracts as of Tuesday’s close. With funds getting back on the long side, we must remember how quickly this can turn. IF we finish poorly for this growing season in enough areas, they could build a big long once again. The opposite would certainly occur should we see a less threatening weather pattern develop. Cash corn and new-corn should be handled a little differently due to the circumstances. As we’ll discuss below, there’s plenty of old-corn around-while stocks are bound to tighten quite a bit from this marketing year to next.

DEMAND

Corn demand was mixed this past week. Exports came in at 333 kmt for old-drop and 706k for new, both a bit higher than a week ago. Corn grind for ethanol posted an increase on the week, coming in at 105 mb. Stocks were up. Basis was mostly mixed:

• My local basis: 2 under Sep (8 cents improved)

• Decatur: 14 over Sep (2 cents wider)

• St. Louis River: 25 over Sep (13 cents wider)

CASH CORN

Cash prices were again improved on the week. With the rally, basis in some areas widened out. Given we’re seeing this rally, plenty of old-crop is getting sold. This has certainly made some end-users back off their basis. This is something we’ve figured might happen due to how much corn we still have sitting around, particularly in the west. Holding on from this point forward will reward us IF we see weather issues, while a change in the weather could put the hammer on price direction. Be cautious in holding onto too much corn this late.

2026 CORN

December 2026 corn ended the week at $4.87 ½, up 20 on the week-and 46 in the last three weeks. Dec corn saw a high of $4.92 for the week, with some selling noted as we moved into the $4.90s. With some growers looking at excellent crops, it’s easy to understand why a person would move forward with hedging risk. For those of us up-in-the-air still, it’s a tougher decision. Do we get back above $5? That all depends on the weather. It’s hard to predict, but as always, I feel like getting close to a dime from the highs, a person should consider hedging off some risk while keeping flexibility in the plan. As this point in the year, we’ll learn more about yield potential quickly, so keep yields up-to-date so your break-evens can be as accurate as possible. It’s all based on managing profit margins as this point. Here is the link for more info on the AgMarket app. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0

Corn Market Theme: The corn market had yet another good week. It’s mostly about weather from this point forward. Keep some flex but consider incremental sales with flex.

BEANS

Beans also started the week with a strong rally and on Friday posted new contract highs. August beans settled at $12.48, up 10 ½. This was 2 ½ off the high and 15 ¼ off the low. Beans rallied 43 ½ cents on the week. August meal settled up 11.1 on the week at 331.3, while soy oil was a bit lower, settling at 74.33, down 48 cents. The COT report showed funds bought 55,000 contracts, which puts them at a 131k long. The bean market is on a tear. While strong new-crop sales of late have supported, the market clearly has some worry about how the bean crop will finish in the US. Strong domestic demand likely keeps stocks numbers low moving forward-this highlights the need for a big yield this harvest. While I have struggled to be bullish beans, I’m glad I wasn’t trading them. 😊 Regardless, they’ve been resilient as can be. While I’d like to think they stay strong, it sure makes sense to manage risk or price beans on these big rallies.

DEMAND

Soybean export sales were up for old crop at 56 kmt for old-crop. New-crop sales were again impressive at 1.537 mt. Basis was improved:

• My local beans: 2 under August (eight cents improved)

• Decatur: 45 over August (no change)

• River: 42 over (no change)

CASH BEANS

Cash beans were up big on the week. While many areas saw basis steady, the big rally on the board was a nice reward for those with old beans left. I’ve wondered if we’d get a rally like this and have encouraged people to keep gambling bushels. While there’s no way to know where we go from here, I’d be looking to clean up old-crop sales sometime soon. With that being said, one can’t rule out a big-time rally should August rains disappoint this crop in the field.

2026 BEANS

Nov 2026 beans settled at $12.53 ½, up 50 ½ on the week. For those who were wanting $12 fall-delivery beans, many can get them at this point. Now, we’ll all want for $13 beans to show up, right? Hey, there’s no way to know where this bean market goes if we see a hot, dry weather pattern continue. While I personally sold plenty of beans at $11 and $11.50 fall-delivery, I did so due to the fact I could make those prices work on our operation. At this point, I don’t want to push cash sales as much, so my preferred method of taking advantage of this rally is to set some floors in place under the market. Given we’re a half-dollar above $12 at this point, a Sep short-dated put at $12.25 looks reasonable to me for 18 cents-or a person could even buy something cheaper as a $12 put is only a dime. Either way, this bean market moves quickly, so protecting ourselves in the event this rally turns south is a way to sleep good at night.

Bean Market Theme: The bean market continues its rally to new highs. Keeping a mindset of rewarding rallies at profitable levels while keeping some flex seems like a good plan.

As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure your break-evens and put your plan in place:

👉 https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0

Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.