July 30th Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

I hope you’ve had a good week so far. Around here, it’s been hot as can be for several days in a row. While we have plenty of moisture, I’ve never liked seeing so many hot days and hot nights as we’ve had of late. Getting out in the field, it sure looks good, but again, I’m not sure how this thing is going to finish just yet. One nice thing is the heat is finally going to subside with a high for us on Thursday of 75 degrees. Heck, that’s been our lows the last couple of nights. As you get a better handle on what to expect for your farm’s yield checks, please keep us posted. We always like hearing from you guys about what you’re seeing. For more info on AgMarket, click here. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0  

The corn market is a dog this week, plain and simple, while beans aren’t much better. With the market not concerned one bit about production, buyers are unmotivated to say the least. A trade truce with China instead of a trade deal isn’t necessarily good news as far as our markets are concerned. Weather hasn’t given us any reason to get excited either, so for now the direction seems to be lower. Outside markets should have provided a mixed bias:

• The US Dollar settled down .252 at 647.
• September crude oil settled up 50 at 69.21.
• The DOW settled 196 points lower at 44,816.  

 The corn market continues to stink up the screen with lower moves both on Monday and Tuesday. Sep corn closed 4 ½ lower at $3.89 ¼. This was 5 off the high and 1 ½ off the low. Given we had similar losses on Monday, it’s clear the big money players have no intentions of letting off of the sell button for the time being. Weekly export inspections were up sharply from the previous week at 1.522 mt. This is over a half-million tons more than a week ago as we continue well ahead of the pace to reach the USDA goal for exports. The good-excellent rating came in at 73%, which was just a point under a week ago. These ratings continue to point to a record crop when compared to similar years. While I know this heat and disease factors could put a dent in yields, it seems likely we’ll finally get over the 180 level. The big question is if we are above, just how big can the crop get. My biggest concern remains the bushels that have to go to town this fall. I’m concerned basis could get super-wide, so we’ve been recommending those bushels get booked if a decent basis can get locked in. For those that get sold, we’ve been looking at buying a May $4.50/5.20 call spread to keep ownership. This costs around 15 cents, while storage to get out to the end of April will cost two to three times this. I like having corn ownership longer-term but a person may have to be patient. It’s a challenging year to market, this much is for sure. Dec corn was down 3 on Tuesday, settling at $4.11.    

September ’25 Corn Chart

SOYBEANS

 Soybeans have also struggled to start the week. After losing 9 ½ cents on Monday, September beans were down another 3 on Tuesday at $9.89 ½. This was 5 ¼ off the high and 5 off the low. Soybean meal was down 3 at 266.4, while soy oil was up .93 at 57.20. Soybean export inspections were well above a week ago at 410k tons. This total was about 50k more a week ago levels and above expectations. The good/excellent rating came in at 70%, which was a 2% increase from a week ago. While the crop is rated in good shape, the news of US/Chinese negotiations hitting a truce wasn’t necessarily the direction many of us were hoping to see. Chinese bean purchases from the US are almost non-existent, so the lack of a trade deal getting done yet is problematic. Hopefully, we’ll get some good news there as the lack of a weather issue likely keeps some pressure on this bean market. On Tuesday, Nov beans closed 2 lower at $10.09 ½. It sure looks like this bean market is heading to sub-$10 for fall beans on the board. It’s tough to get excited about selling beans down here, but if you know you need bean income this fall, at some point I’d get a plan in place. Have offers above the market or wherever you can make work with your operation. While I’m not bearish beans at these prices, it’s sure hard to get bullish as well. 

September ‘25 Soybean chart

Matt Bennett
mbennett@agmarket.net
Work: 815-665-0462
Twitter: @chief321