June 10th Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

It’s been a wet start to the week around our place. While we missed the weekend rains, we had a pond-filler on Monday. With 1.5-3.8 inches of rain on our fields, some of the ponds we spotted in are likely going to remain ponds at this point. As big as the rest of these fields are getting, it’s going to be tough to get to them now. We got some hay baled, but the rest of it is going to take a few days now. I’m not sure when we can mow it down, but hopefully later this week. It’s going to be hot for several days, so we’ll likely dry up to an extent, but it will definitely take a few days. Our crops that aren’t hurt by water are going to grow like crazy over the next several days. I doubt we lose too much as we were fairly dry coming in, but time will tell. I appreciate all the feedback, so keep it coming. For more on AgMarket, click here. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0

The corn and bean markets are trying to find some footing after the recent debacle, but most contracts still lost a little ground on the week. With crop ratings still solid and a good amount of the corn-belt receiving rain, buyers are on the sidelines. With the drop in energy markets, outside markets should have provided a negative bias:

• The US Dollar settled down .135 at 99.889.
• July crude oil settled down 3.10 at 88.20.
• The DOW settled up 53 points at 50,909.

Corn – The corn market spent much of the session with decent gains before sellers came in and erased most if not all of the gains. July corn closed up ¾ at $4.19 ½. This was 6 off the high and 2 off the low. Corn export inspections were well above expectations at 1.911 mmt. This is almost 200k above a week ago. We’re still running 27% ahead of a year ago while the USDA is forecasting a 15% increase. 97% of the crop is planted, which compares to 96% both last year and for the 5-year average. 86% of the crop has emerged vs 86% on average. The crop ratings stayed at 67% good/excellent, which compares to 71% a year ago. While many are asking why we’re steady so far this week after a nice rain the last few days, my best explanation is we pre-paid for that rain. Last week we saw many areas north of I80 getting uncomfortably dry, but the rain fell on many of the driest areas-just like the forecast was predicting. While demanding is fantastic, we have plenty of corn and a trade that feels this crop will be big enough to counter strong demand. I look for corn to be sideways and hopefully etch a bit higher into the end-of-month acreage report, but there’s no way of knowing at this point just how we’ll trade. Any move higher might warrant considering some risk-management. Dec corn settled down ¾ at $4.45 ¼.

Soybeans – Soybeans also saw some buying before rolling over as the session went on. July settled 2 lower at $11.13 ¾. This was 4 ¾ off the high and 3 ½ off the low. July soybean meal was down 1.6 at 301.1, while soy oil was up .35 at 74.91. Weekly inspections showed bean shipments at 398k mt, which was below both expectations and a week ago levels. Bean planting jumped from 87% to 92% planted, which compares to 88% on average. 79% of the beans were emerged, which compares to 71% on average. The bean crop was rated 65% good/excellent, which is 1% lower than a week ago. The bean market is trying to recover its senses after getting smoked the last several sessions. I’ve been surprised more by the drop in corn prices than beans-as the world fundamentals on beans are anything but bullish. We no doubt have strong demand, but with big production both in SA and the US, it’s tough to be friendly to bean prices. I’d be cautious as to snub our nose at profitable levels for those who need to get caught up on sales. The acreage report could very well surprise the trade, but at this point, most are looking for additional acres. Nov beans settled at $11.32, down 3 ½.

mbennett@agmarket.net

Matt Bennett

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