June 3rd Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

I hope your week has been good so far. Our weather is about as good as can be with mid-70s to 80s and plenty of sun. We’re putting hay down here in a couple of days as the guy who does our baling just wrapped up planting. There’s plenty of activity in our area with spotting in and replant along with spraying and side-dress. When we get our hay put down, we’ll get the roadsides mowed as well-there’s no shortage of things to do. Baseball and softball are in full-swing as well, so we’ve been meeting ourselves coming and going. I appreciate the feedback. I know many of you are super-wet at this point. Keep me posted as we progress. For more on AgMarket, click here. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0

The corn and bean markets are in turmoil this week. With a tough go this past week, we needed the buyers to step up but they’ve been on the sidelines so far this week. Both corn and beans have struggled while wheat remains in a free-fall. The lack of Chinese buying after the agreement they’d buy 17 bbu worth of agricultural goods has weighed on the market as this crop has gotten off to a good start. Even a rallying crude oil market hasn’t stopped the bleeding on our commodity markets-outside markets should have provided a positive bias:

• The US Dollar settled up .037 at 99.184.
• July crude oil settled up 1.60 at 93.76.
• The DOW settled up 266 points at 51,400.

Corn – The corn market tried to take a look at higher prices but again succumbed to selling pressure. July corn closed down 3 ½ at $4.40 ½. This was 5 ¼ off the high and 1 ½ off the low. Corn export inspections were above expectations at 1.728 mmt. This is 140k above a week ago. We’re still running 27% ahead of a year ago while the USDA is forecasting a 15% increase. 93% of the crop is planted, which compares to 92% both last year and for the 5-year average. 76% of the crop has emerged vs 74% on average. The initial crop ratings cem in at 67% good/excellent, which compares to 69% a year ago and 70% on average. The crop has gotten off to a solid start in the midst of many areas having some struggles with a wet spring-and others being excessively dry. The biggest issue with corn is with the lack of a weather concern in the here and how-while China remains absent on corn purchases. As I said over the weekend, we can expect more selling especially of old-crop . We have plenty of it sitting around, so a person needs to be proactive with their plan as we get closer to pollination time. Dec corn settled down 6 at $4.66 ½.

Soybeans – Soybeans have fallen over 20 cents between Monday and Tuesday, so the action wasn’t much better there. July settled 15 ½ lower at $11.65 ¼. This was 17 ½ off the high and 2 ¼ off the low. July soybean meal was down .3 at 326.2, while soy oil was down .68 at 78.41. Weekly inspections showed bean shipments at 494k mt, which was below both expectations and a week ago levels. Bean planting jumped from 79% to 87% planted, which compares to 80% on average. 65% of the beans were reportedly emerged, which compares to 57% on average. The bean crop was rated 66% good/excellent, which is just 1% lower than a year ago. The bean market is also struggling as funds appear to be liquidating some of their ag portfolio. Domestic demand remains strong as evidenced by robust crush margins, which is keeping crush running significantly ahead of a year-ago levels. However, as we’ve talked about, world supply is more than adequate, potentially keeping a lid on bean rallies. Moving forward, I still like having some hedges in place to lock in worst-case scenarios at profitable levels. Nov beans settled at $11.77 ¾, down 11.

mbennett@agmarket.net

Matt Bennett

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