September 3rd Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

I hope you’re having a great week so far. After a three-day weekend, most of us are preparing to be quite busy. While I’ve heard of a few nosing out into some corn in my area, I have to think the beans will go first. Whereas we had some beans start turning last week, those same beans are full-on yellow now, with more leaves dropping every day. Given how dry we are at home, even the cool temperatures haven’t seemed to slow down the quick maturation of both corn and beans. I’m a bit worried about how these beans will turn out, especially the later-planted ones. I suppose we’ll know more here pretty-darn-quick. With baseball being a quick season, we will likely finish playing just in time to head to the field. I suppose Toby will go from one sport to the next. For more info on AgMarket, CLICK HERE. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0   

The corn market opened on Monday night down across the board, but corn rallied back to close positive on the day. While it’s still quite dry in much of the Corn Belt, selling was robust for beans through most of the session. The lack of a trade deal with China is likely one of the main things weighing on this bean market. Outside markets should have provided a muted bias:

• The US Dollar settled up .657 at 98.347
• October crude oil settled up 1.58 at 65.59
• The DOW settled down 250 points at 45,351       

The corn market bounced and settled higher after spending the overnight and much of the day session lower. December corn closed 2 ¾ higher at $4.23. This was ½ off the high and 9 off the low. Corn export inspections came in on Monday at 1.407, which was well above expectations and solidifies the need for the USDA to increase old-crop exports once again in the upcoming September report. Good/excellent dropped by 2% to 69%, while the weekly crop progress report shows 58% of the crop dented and 15% mature. This corn crop has gone backwards in the last month, with a dry August and more talk every day about how much disease there is, especially in the areas that were so wet in July. It’s a big crop, there’s no doubt about it. However, I feel strongly that it’s well below the 188.8 that the USDA gave us in August. The market will have plenty of ebb and flow if and when the USDA backs off on the lofty yield. Demand has plenty of room to have the air let out, so ending stocks could end up in the 2 bbu vicinity even with a decent drop. The key once again is as we start looking at 2026 and whether we can satisfy the huge demand with what is likely to be a producer reluctant to plant big corn acres. December 2026 corn was settled 3 on Tuesday at $4.62 ¼.                                     

December ’25 Corn Chart

SOYBEANS

Soybeans were down double-digits on Monday but clawed back some of the losses on Tuesday. November beans were down 13 ½ on Tuesday at $10.41. This was 12 off the high and 4 ¾ off the low. Soybean meal was down 5.1 at 278.3, while soy oil was up .56 at 52.26. The weekly inspections showed beans at 473k, which was well above expectations and one heck of a good number as we close out the marketing year. The good/excellent rating came in at 65%, which was a 4% decrease from a week ago. Given the August weather, it’s not hard to fathom we’d see a big drop. The report showed 94% setting pods. This drop in ratings this late in the game isn’t altogether uncommon, but there’s no doubt the bean crop has taken it on the chin in August. A big bean crop has to have some August precipitation and given much of the eastern Corn Belt is as dry as it’s been in 100+ years, it’s going to be tough to keep this 53.6 bu yield intact. My best guess is the west will have excellent yields, while the east will likely drag the whole crop down a good bushel or two. While corn acres look likely to drop significantly, it’s easy to see bean acres going up several million. This could cap rallies even as we see these US stocks and stock/use ratios really drop. Therefore, selling or hedging risk on any strength on either old or new-crop makes good sense to me. On Tuesday, November 2026 beans closed 4 ¾ lower at $10.78 ¼.  

November ‘25 Soybean chart

Matt Bennett
mbennett@agmarket.net
Work: 815-665-0462
Twitter: @chief321