March 2nd Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

Commodity Classic 2026 is in the books. It was a great show, and making it that way was meeting so many of you. We had a ton of traffic at the booth, and I enjoyed reconnecting with some old friends while meeting new ones as well. At our Early Riser session, we recorded a podcast with Joe Vaclavik, and it was a hit with the crowd. Secretary Rollins was at the show, and while she didn’t say a ton that was compelling when it came to corn and beans, she did say the border wasn’t opening up for cattle anytime soon. San Antonio was hot! We saw temps approaching 90° a few of the days, and it made us want to get home and get ready to roll. However, our forecast shows 3-5 in. of rain in the next two weeks. If it comes right, it will be as welcome as can be. As dry as we are, we’ll soak every bit of it up if we are lucky with how it comes.

This past week on the podcast, I recorded from our booth at Commodity. Here’s the link. Grain Marketing Update with Matt Bennett (2/26/2026)

Both corn and beans posted nice rallies on the week. While month-end doesn’t always give us a rally, we saw some excitement, led by the wheat rally. Wheat came to life after the rain forecast for wheat country shifted east. Outside markets were likely a bullish influence.

• The US Dollar was down .687 at 96.819
• April crude oil was up 3.73 at 66.48
• The DOW was up 105 points at 49,674

CORN
March 2026 corn, which has gone into delivery, rallied into the weekend. March settled at $4.38 ¾, up 5 ½. This was 1 ¼ off the high and 6 ¾ off the low. March rallied 11 ¼ cents for the week. May corn closed at $4.48 ½, up a nickel on Friday. Technically, we continue to build momentum at higher prices than we’ve seen in a while. Demand has been stellar, to say the least. With world and U.S. demand so strong, the need for big production is a necessity. With the wheat market rallying on weather issues in the U.S. and possibly some war premium as the U.S./Iran situation is tenuous, some of that enthusiasm has spilled over to corn. In all honesty, given demand, corn doesn’t need much of a nudge. As we move forward, rallies likely are paired with some basis weakness, while new crop should stay well supported until we get a better idea of 2026 corn acres and how this Safrinha and Argentine corn crops perform.

DEMAND
Corn export demand was off big-time on the week. We came in at 686 kmt. Corn grind for ethanol was down a bit to just under 109 m. Stocks were a shade higher. Basis was steady:

• My local basis: 19 under May (no change)
• Decatur: 2 over the March (3 cents wider)
• St. Louis River: 25 over March (3 cents improved)

CASH CORN
Cash prices were slightly stronger this past week due to the rally on the board. With plenty of corn on basis contracts likely rolling to the May at the last minute, one may have assumed we’d see March back off. However, corn held in there and rallied as the week progressed. While some interior bids backed off, the river has stayed supported due to the big export program we continue to enjoy. I’d be surprised if the basis holds together, especially if we see this rally continue. There is still a ton of corn to come to town over the next few months, so we must realize basis is likely to widen on rallies. As I’ve said all along, I like corn ownership, but I’d rather own it on paper than the physical, given we have 17 bbu of the 2026 crop along with the 1.5 bbu carry-in to chew through. Incremental sales on rallies are a great way to approach this market, so if you have corn in the bin, keep those offers current.

2026 CORN
December 2026 corn ended the week at $4.69 ½, up 5 cents on the week. While we have a huge crop to deal with on cash bushels, we also have to acknowledge those bushels when marketing our new crop. Keep in mind, Dec corn has struggled to stay above $4.70 for the last couple of years. As we’ve said a ton here lately, hedging some new crop in this $4.70 area makes a ton of sense, particularly when we look at a strategy of rolling those hedges out to July this fall. While there’s no guarantee we’ll have that sort of carry, we’re going to have a big carry-in, which likely means end-users will want the corn spread out over the months, keeping carry in the market. Again, we’re in rare territory right now, so some risk management might be considered if you feel you need to get caught up. Here is the link for more info on the AgMarket app. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0

Corn Market Theme: The corn market has a little bit of life in here. Employing some risk-management might be a wise thing to consider given our margins have improved on this rally.

SOYBEANS
Soybeans had a decent week as buying came in on Friday, ensuring weekly gains. March beans settled at $11.57 ¼ on the close, up 9 ½. This was 3 ¾ off the high and 11 ¼ off the low. Beans rallied 19 ¾ cents on the week. May beans closed at $11.70 ¾, up 7 ¼. March meal settled 5.7 higher on the week at 315.5, while soy oil ended the week at 61.29, up 2.37. May bean meal closed at 320.5, while May soy oil settled at 61.85. This bean market seems a little excited about the 45Z and RVO numbers set to be released here soon. With 5.2-5.6 billion gallons thought to be the levels headed at us, it appears we’ll continue building this renewable diesel industry. Let’s hope that is the case, as we need as much domestic consumption as we can get. The bean market has been impressive, so those with old beans or who feel they need to catch up on new beans have a chance in here to use this rally. I have no idea if it moves on higher, but if we’re much more profitable than we were a month ago, it seems like a good idea to consider.

DEMAND
Soybean export sales were down on the week at 407 kmt. Basis was steady:

• My local beans: 33 under May (2 cents improved)
• Decatur: 10 over the March (a nickel improved)
• River: 27 over the March (3 cents improved)

CASH SOYBEANS
Cash beans had a solid week with bids improving on both the market and some basis strengthening. Interior bids have hung right with the river, especially as the export market has cooled off. I continue to see reasons to move old beans while keeping gambling bushels on hand. I’m not sure I want to get rid of all of them, as a rally can get interesting when the farmer doesn’t have any more to sell. At the same time, Brazil has a ton of beans to hit the market, and they certainly use the CME to hedge them. Either way, taking advantage of such a strong rally seems like a good idea to consider.

2026 SOYBEANS
November 2026 beans settled at $11.28 ¼, up 13 ¼ on the week. New beans in some areas are now at or pushing $11 fall bids. I know for some that doesn’t work just yet, but for others who have solid APHs, profit can definitely be locked in. When it comes to new beans I’ve been a big fan of locking in a worst-case scenario while keeping some upside open. I’m still in that camp if you haven’t done much on beans just yet. If a person wanted to buy an $11.30 put, sell a 10.20, and sell a 12.50 put, it would only cost 22 cents. This would give you $1.10 of downside protection while giving the chance to participate in $1.20 of a rally. I like those types of strategies, but they carry margin risk. If you have margin with one of those, you’d hopefully be happy, as it would mean the value of your beans is increasing. Or, a person could hedge some beans in here somewhere with the thoughts we’ll roll it to May or July next fall with what is likely to be a decent carry. Last year, Nov/July got up to 60 cents for reference sake.

Bean Market Theme: The bean market has some life as well. Hedging off risk on rallies is the best time to consider doing so. I’d rather leg into profitable sales than try to catch the market on the way lower.

As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure your break-evens and put your plan in place:

👉 https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0

Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.