August 2nd Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

I hope you had a great week and have a nice weekend in store. Our week started out as hot as can be, but this cool-down has been fantastic as we head into the weekend. Walking outside on Thursday morning to 60-degree temps couldn’t have felt more refreshing. Driving by our fields on the way to my office, I could almost hear the sigh of relief, especially from the corn that has finished pollination and is trying to pack on as much weight as possible. We aren’t hurting for moisture at home, but we have missed the last couple of rains. While I think our corn crop is close to made, the beans need a couple more drinks to fill out the incredible amount of pods we’ve been seeing. The April-planted beans look to be a bin-buster, but without more rain, who knows where they come in. This coming week I go to Kansas, Kentucky, Nebraska and have a meeting close to home in Effingham, IL. It’s going to be busy, but I am looking forward to meeting a ton of people and seeing familiar faces. I know it’s a tough time to talk markets, but we’ll do the best to frame up the things we need to be considering moving forward. I’ve heard from many of you stating disease is getting serious even where you’ve sprayed fungicide. While I’m no agronomist, I would be proactive as can be with the agronomist you work with and see if another application is in order. I know it’s expensive, but if we let tar-spot or rust get out of control, that $35-40 application might look cheap. Stay in touch and let me know what your yield checks look like-I believe it’s imperative we keep close tabs on expected production and be in our fields the next couple of weeks. mbennett@agmarket.net.

I’ll be at Becknology Days the next three weeks. Be sure and reach out if you want to chat or ask questions on our app or services. I look forward to seeing all of you. Here is the link for more info on the AgMarket app. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0  

The corn and bean markets both moved lower once again this past week. While some are talking about too much of a good thing when it comes to rain, the market has shrugged that off for now. Trade deals have been announced without many specifics while the all-important deal with China is still supposedly ‘in the works.’ That needs to happen soon. August weather is our last shot at a rally pre-harvest, barring something unforeseen. Outside markets were active with mixed signals. These prices are weekly moves just before Friday’s close.  

• The US Dollar was up .540 at 98.745.
• September crude oil was 1.29 higher at 67.34.
• The DOW was 1,390 points lower at 43,712.        

CORN

September corn was down 3 of 5 days as we continue to see old-crop sales getting wrapped up. On Friday, Sep settled at $3.89 ½, down 4 ½. This was 6 ¾ off the high and ¾ off the low. Sep lost 10 cents for the week. On Monday and Tuesday, the corn market continued lower, while seeing positive closes for both Wednesday and Thursday. The issue is the three days we closed higher were bigger moves than the two days lower. Given the producer knows these old-crop bushels have to move to town soon, we’re seeing a fair amount of hedge pressure. While some pushes were noted last week into early this week, most of those have gone to the wayside as growers rewarded those offers with some sales. This crop isn’t necessarily made, but it sure looks like a good one. We’re hearing of some tip-back, N loss and disease pressure, but given the amount of moisture we received in July, it’s tough to think we will see a yield below the USDA’s forecast of 181. In fact, for the August USDA report, I assume we’ll see a yield 3-4 bushels higher. I’m not saying that’s where we’ll end up, but they will have some ammo in the tank to post a yield like that. My number one concern remains the bushels that have to go to town this fall. We need to have our plans in place and be proactive. While I see rally potential once we get a handle on how big this crop is, it’s likely we’ll have wide basis levels and poor cash prices this fall if this crop is as big as the trade thinks it is.

DEMAND

Corn demand was mixed the week. Net export sales came in at 340 KMT, which was down 300k tons from a week ago. New-crop sales were huge at 1.89 mmt, so overall sales were up 800 kmt! Ethanol grind was just over 106 MB, up over two-million bushels. Stocks were up on the week. Basis was mixed/wider:

• My local basis: 9 under Sep (no change)
• Decatur: 16 over Sep (two cents wider)
• St. Louis River: 19 over Sep (11 cents wider)

CASH CORN

Cash prices moved lower on the week. With the board moving lower and basis not helping out, cash has certainly moved lower. There’s no doubt we’re running out of time, so by all means, I’d be getting my ducks in a row, especially for those who need the space, which is likely about all of us. I don’t see much reason to hold on much longer with harvest in the delta to start in the next week or so. As we get into harvest, we’ll switch to where old-crop will be what we’re harvesting, while new-crop will be ’26. It doesn’t seem possible, but that’s where we’re at. Let us know if you need some help on this old-crop situation.

2025 CORN

December 2025 corn ended the week at $4.10 ¾, down 8 ¼. This past week was another week with the funds completely disinterested in owning any corn. As stated before, the weather isn’t offering any support for corn as ample rain has been the theme all summer. While a handful have missed out, soil moisture remains adequate to ideal for much of the corn-belt. I again want to be proactive in locking in some sales on those bushels we know have to be delivered this fall. For those who want to stay in the game, I’d look at buying a call-spread. We recommended this to our clients this past week by way of a May $4.50/5.20 call spread for 15 cents or less. It’s currently around 13. While this appears to be a big corp, we continue to hear of disease pressure and tip-back here and there. My personal opinion is the trade is at a 185 or better-and that will be tough to achieve without an ideal finish. This cool weather helps, but we need to keep the intense heat away during grain-fill. The name of the game is profit, so be sure to keep tabs on where your costs are as well as how sales-to-date affect your break-even. Again, using the AgMarket app or something similar can take a ton of guesswork out of your risk-management. Let us know if we can be of assistance.    

Corn Market Theme: The corn market remains a dog. With the current weather, it’s tough to expect otherwise. We continue to think a shift in sentiment will occur over the next several weeks once we quantify the ’25 crop and shift focus to ’26. We could see some tough sailing in the meantime.

September ’25 Corn Chart

SOYBEANS

Beans also moved lower this past week. On Friday, September beans settled unchanged at $9.69 ½. This was 5 ¼ off the high and 3 ¼ off the low. Beans lost 32 ½ cents on the week. Sep meal settled 1.3 lower on the week at 270.9, while soy oil ended the week at 54.48, up 1.77. The bean market saw higher crop ratings on Monday and traded lower throughout the week. While the crop is thought to be adequate, we have a ton of weather to see before getting too bearish here. However, with us kicking the can down the road with regards to the trade deal with China, some in the trade are getting antsy. With very little in the way of new-crop sales for beans, the new-crop bean export program looks challenged to say the least. IF we see a lower yield due to poor August weather, I’m afraid the market may not care as much as we would normally experience. Given lower stocks, lower demand due to exports could take the shine from beans. We need the trade deal and we need it soon. Hopefully, we’ll get it. Either way, look for bounces to sell a few of these new-crop beans and get those old-crop beans cleaned up as well.  

DEMAND

Soybean exports were down from last week at 349k tons, up 180k from last week. With 429k posted for next marketing-year, bean exports overall were up 370k. Basis was widening on the river.

• My local beans: 25 under Nov (no change)
• Decatur: 20 over Nov (no change)
• River: 18 over August (5 cents wider)

CASH BEANS

Cash beans were down on the week-seems like a broken record. I knew very few still own old beans, but for those that do, we’re out of time here soon. I’d be getting those cleaned up if need be. If you want to wait on all of August to do so, given most of you are sitting on very little if any, I suppose it would make sense. As with corn, we’ll call the ’25 old beans here soon, so you know it’s time to get these beans locked in before too long.  

2025 BEANS

Nov 2025 beans settled at $9.89 ¼, down 31 ¾ on the week. Nov beans are now back below $10. How depressing is that? While I was hopeful some August weather would give us a push back closer to $11, it appears those with no sales on could be subjected to selling these new beans at a loss. For those with some sales on, figure your realistic yields and factor in the sales you’ve made. You may surprise yourself on where you can sell these beans and come out. With that being said, I’d do so in a flexible situation if possible. I’d have offers in place at those areas you know you can make money. While it’s about impossible to outguess this bean market, we can always know what level we need to call it a profit. My best advice is to have your cost-of-production figured and market according to your operations, break-even. As always, reach out if you need any help at all. 

September ‘25 Soybean chart

 As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure your break-evens and put your plan in place:

👉 https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0  

Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.

Matt Bennett
mbennett@agmarket.net
Work: 815-665-0462
Twitter: @chief321