May 27th Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

I hope you had a nice Memorial Day. We went to the service in town, which the American Legion put on. I wasn’t in the military, but my Dad served in Vietnam, so it’s been a service I’ve rarely if ever missed after growing up attending. Some replanting was going on over the weekend, while others were spotting in, spraying and side-dressing some N. We planted sweet-corn on Tuesday, and the 6-row will now go to spotting in some ponds. I don’t think we have any full-on replant, but we’ll have several fields we need to spot in the ponds. We’d like to get our hay down, as it looks like a good week for it. However, we don’t have our own baler, and with the short windows we’ve had this spring, most people are still busy getting wrapped up. I’m happy for the heat we’re finally seeing with highs in the 80s all week. Keep me posted on how things are going for you. For more on AgMarket, click here. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0

The corn and bean markets started the week on a down note after the weekend brought talk of a cease-fire. With crude oil trading lower on Sunday night into Monday, our markets were called lower. While not much has changed, a risk-off tone was observed as some war premium seemed to exit the market. Outside markets should have provided a negative bias:

• The US Dollar settled down .085 at 99.101.
• July crude oil settled down 2.71 at 93.89.
• The DOW settled down 115 points at 50,547.

Corn – The corn market was weak from start to finish to start this holiday-shortened week. July corn closed down 5 ¾ at $4.57 ½. This was 5 ½ off the high and 1 off the low. Corn export inspections were above expectations at 1.581 mmt. This is 200k above a week ago. We’re still running 28% ahead of a year ago while the USDA is forecasting a 15% increase. 86% of the crop is planted, which compares to 86% last year and 83% for the 5-year average. 60% of the crop has emerged vs 58% on average. While we held onto solid gains last week for this corn market, we were once again reminded how quickly the narrative can change due to forces outside of our control. This war situation has certainly become tiresome when seeing the on again/off again nature in how it impacts our markets. While corn has an excellent story from a demand perspective and potential acreage losses, we still have plenty of old-crop corn to chew through. I’m not bearish by any means, but we really need to see July corn hold $4.50. I would be concerned if we broke those levels. On new-crop, I’d think we’ll have support as we await acreage at the end of June. With that being said, I still think it’s appropriate to have a fair amount of fall corn protected or sold. I like a flexible strategy, so if you want to work on something like that with us, give us a ring. Dec26 corn settled down 4 ½ at $4.82.

Soybeans – Soybeans also started the week with some selling. July beans were down 10 ½ at $11.86. This was 7 ½ off the high and 1 ½ off the low. July soybean meal was down 3.3 at 328.6, while soy oil was up .38 at 74.36. Weekly inspections showed bean shipments at 572k mt, which was above expectations and a week ago levels. Bean planting jumped from 67% to 79% planted, which compares to 68% on average. With 49% of the beans emerged, it compares to 40% on average. July beans spent most of the overnight markets on the defensive, tried to get back to unchanged on the day session, but couldn’t get it done. Beans have been impressive the last few weeks-in all honesty, settling down double-digits at $11.86 isn’t exactly a bad situation. We have to keep our perspective on these prices. Heck, last winter at times, we were hoping we didn’t fall below $10. In the coming months, I expect world soy plantings to increase due to the fertilizer situation and the cost of growing feedgrains. Therefore, I like having a decent chunk of my ’26 beans hedged and some ’27 as well. While we don’t know our costs exactly, we aren’t near as beholden to fertilizer as we are with corn or wheat for that matter. While having some flex is a good idea, locking in margin needs to be our goal in my opinion. Nov beans settled at $11.80 ¼, down 7 ½.

mbennett@agmarket.net

Matt Bennett

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