May 9th Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

Depending on when you’re reading this, I gotta say ‘Happy Mother’s Day’ to all of the women in our lives who keep things going. I know I’d be lost without mine and my wife, who is an incredible mother. I just wish they could get the weather to straighten out. 😊 We’ve been fortunate to get some rain, which has softened the ground a bit. However, it remains cold, so we’re not getting much push on this corn coming up. We’re seeing more corn show up every day, and I believe it will be even enough-but it won’t be a perfect stand necessarily. We’ll be spotting in the ponds at the very least. With more rain on Friday, it’s going to take a few days yet before we can think about finishing corn for the first time. I know several who haven’t planted any corn at all yet, so I know many of you are getting pretty antsy. I appreciate the feedback-keep it coming. mbennett@agmarket.net.

This past week on the podcast, we touched on weather and planting pace again while looking at the charts. Here’s the link. Protecting Your Profits: Grain Market Update with Matt Bennett

Corn lost ground on the week, while beans used a Friday rally to ensure weekly gains. With some de-escalation early in the week in regards to the Iran war, crude oil prices dropped-this put pressure on our ag commodities mid-week, but we found some footing on Thursday. Outside markets were mixed.

• The US Dollar was down .340 at 98.765.
• June crude oil was down 6.61 at 95.34.
• The DOW settled up 19 points at 49,665.

CORN

July ‘26 corn ended the streak of higher weekly closes. July settled at $4.71 ¼, up 3 ¾. This was 2 ¼ off the high and 6 off the low. July lost 9 cents for the week. Technically, this corn fell back off the highs but found support where it needed to. On Thursday, we saw most contracts trade below the 50-day moving average before settling above it, indicating the market is staying in this uptrend we’ve seen for most of 2026. Whether looking at selling old or new-crop, I like to stay flexible as it seems to me acreage could fall for corn due to weather and/or fertilizer prices. At the same time, locking in profit margins is something we didn’t get the luxury of the last couple of years-so snubbing our nose at net income doesn’t seem like a great plan in my book.

DEMAND

Corn demand was mixed this past week. Exports came in at 1.362 mmt, down over 200k from a week ago. Corn grind for ethanol continued to lag but increased on the week, coming in at just over 98 mb. Stocks were up. Basis was mostly improved:

• My local basis: 20 under July (no change)

• Decatur: 8 over July (no change)

• St. Louis River: 22 over July (3 cents wider)

CASH CORN

Cash prices were down on the week. With the recent run-up, there has been quite a few bushels sold. While we’ve seen the market fall this past week, basis didn’t improve-in fact, at the river, it widened a bit. This is likely due to how basis held up on the roll from May to July, where most processors actually were paying more for cash. This was likely due to field activity in those areas that could run, while where it was too wet to farm, it was likely too wet to haul as well. Cash prices being as good as we’ve seen in some time had producers selling a fair bit of corn. My best advice for those with plenty of bushels left is to continue to reward the market as we rally. If you know you can make money, I believe the best thing to do is sell in increments-if you want to say long, consider some calls out in the August to where they expire after June 30^th when the planted acreage report is and after pollination as well. My main goal is to have cash cleaned up by pollination as storing after hasn’t historically worked well.

2026 CORN

December 2026 corn ended the week at $4.93 ½, down 3 ¼ on the week. The action in Dec corn has been impressive, especially after the blasé years we’ve just come out of. Dec traded up to $5.05 ½ this past week but settled well off of those highs. While I’m not bearish, selling corn in the $5 area for most works well considering APH-type yields. I still want some flex, and that’s why we own some calls. We’re ‘up to’ 50% on ’26 sales-I’m not sure a person gets more aggressive than that just yet, but if they do, covering with calls would make good sense. Knowing where we can call it a profit is of utmost imprortance. Here is the link for more info on the AgMarket app. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0

Corn Market Theme: The corn market fell back this week but found support. I look for sideways action up to the acreage report at the end of June knowing what we know today.

BEANS

Beans were up on the week again. July beans settled at $12.08, up 15 ¾. This was 2 ¼ off the high and 19 ½ off the low. Beans rallied 4 ¾ cents on the week. July meal settled up .4 on the week at 319.7, while soy oil ended the week at 74.32, down .84. The bean market tried to break out of the range early in the week but fell back. We remain at some of the highest levels we’ve seen since the start of the war. Soy oil surge early in the week, following a strong crude market, to the highest we’ve seen soy oil in a few years. Soybeans overall are a mixed bag. We’ve been heavily focused on demand for some time, but from a supply standpoint, I remain a bit concerned. Given a big crop out of South America and what I presume to be additional bean acres in the US, it’s tough for me to get too bullish here. Whether we’re talking old or new beans, incrementally rewarding the rally we’ve seen seems like good business to me, especially for those who know they can turn a profit here.

DEMAND

Soybean export sales were down on the week at 142 kmt. Basis was steady:

• My local beans: 20 under July (no change)

• Decatur: 15 over July (5 cents wider)

• River: 18 over July (4 cents wider)

CASH BEANS

Cash beans were steady for the most part this past week. While we gained a bit on the board, some of these basis levels widened out. As with corn, moving to bidding vs the July made for a little-stronger cash bids, which likely shook loose some bushels. As we’ve talked about for some time, I’m not a big fan of keeping a ton of beans around. Whatever a person calls gambling bushels have been good to keep around thus far, so maybe a guy sits at the table a little longer. Regardless, rewarding a market that is head and shoulders better than during last harvest is tough to argue with.

2026 BEANS

Nov 2026 beans settled at $11.89 ½, up 6 ¾ on the week. New beans traded to a shade over $12 this week, so some of those folks with offers in got them filled. While we’re under than right now, a good chunk of the folks I talk to can make money at these levels. As always, the key is to know at what levels you can make work for your operation. Most of us should know where our cost-of-production is at this point, so figuring a break-even level with reasonable yields should be fairly-straightforward. I’ve sold plenty of beans already-as I knew I could make money with normal yields. However, I’m still a fan of placing a floor under some of those unprotected bushels should we continue rallying.

Bean Market Theme: The bean market has tried to break out of its range without much success. This range is much preferable to the one we’d been in for some time though.

As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure your break-evens and put your plan in place:

👉 https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0

Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.