November 12th Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

I hope you’re having a good week. It’s been cold around our place, especially for early November. With overnight lows in the low-20s and even some snow on Sunday/Monday, it has felt more like February for us. Interestingly, we’re looking at 70° temperatures again this weekend. While most of the anhydrous is on around our area, it’s going to be odd to see how warm it’s about to get. Fortunately, it’s not going to last long and we’ll be back to highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s this time next week. While fieldwork in our area is pretty much wrapped up, I know many of you are still working ground and finishing up harvest. Hopefully the weather is working out for you. I’d like to hear how things are going in your area and whether you’re changing your rotation for this coming year. Acreage will be a big discussion moving forward. On the home front, we’re going to ballgames about every night here lately. Toby’s 8^th-grade team has yet to lose, but this week we play a prep school from Decatur. It’s a little different level than these boys have seen, but it will be a good experience regardless. Please keep me posted if you get a chance. For more information on AgMarket, CLICK HERE. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0  

The corn and bean markets started the week on Monday with more up. While beans took a breather on Tuesday, corn saw a bit of buying once again. The USDA report is this Friday, so we likely have some pre-report positioning going on. The average trade guesses for yield are 184 for corn and 53 for beans, so most look for yields to decline slightly. Outside markets should have provided a positive bias:

• The US Dollar settled down at .146 at 316.
• December crude oil settled up at .91 at 04.
• The DOW settled up at 568 points at 48,030. This is a new all-time high close!  

CORN

The corn market saw both sides unchanged but settled into a higher trade for the better part of the session. December corn closed 2 ¼ higher at $4.32. This was ¾ off the high and 3 ½ off the low. Corn export inspections came in on Monday at 1.425 mmt, which was 200k lower than a week ago but within expectations. Given this strong pace, there’s no doubt the USDA has the ammo to raise corn exports for this marketing year. However, I still feel the feed usage is way too high, so any reduction in the size of the corn crop is likely to be accompanied by lower demand. The crop is getting close to being done as far as harvest is concerned. While we don’t get a report from the USDA, the average analyst’s guess is for upwards of 90% completion. I’m sure hopeful we get a bullish report this Friday. Given the way this bean market has rallied recently, along with the ‘trade deal’, IF we see those exports come to fruition for beans, it would be likely corn would follow along. With a bullish report, we could see some price action above $4.40 as the market tries to rally above the 200-day moving average. If it’s a bearish report, there’s no doubt it would take time to see the type of rally we’d all like to see. Incremental sales on a bullish report might make some sense, particularly if you’re like me and need some money coming up soon. On Tuesday, December 2026 corn settled 2 ¼ higher on Tuesday at $4.70.  

SOYBEANS

Soybeans cooled off on the day after quite a strong run of late. January beans were down 2 ¾ on Tuesday at $11.27 ¼. This was 3 off the high and 7 ¼ off the low. Soybean meal was down 3.1 at 316.9, while soy oil was up .52 at 51.10. The weekly inspections showed beans at 1.08mt, which was a bit better than a week ago but under expectations. As with corn, we are essentially relying on analysts to estimate where the harvest progress is. Most are estimating upwards of 95% completion, so we’ve almost got this crop put to bed. For the report, some are asking if we could see the USDA boost exports on this report. I doubt that happens, as they already had exports boosted enough to imply some Chinese business would come in. I doubt the lower the yield by any large degree, but given how dry some of these beans are, it’s always a possibility. As with corn, I like having target orders in place just in case we get a bullish report. Selling an increment at a more profitable area than where we’ve been this calendar year doesn’t seem like a terrible idea to me. On Tuesday, November 2026 beans closed 1 ½ higher at $11.12.

Matt Bennett 
mbennett@agmarket.net
815-665-0462
@chief321