November 22nd Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

It’s the first week of shotgun season, so it’s pretty busy in the countryside. While Friday in our neighborhood wasn’t much for hunting, I believe deer camp has been hopping. It was raining most of the day, with limited visibility early on, and fog and mist. We’re hoping we keep getting some of these nice rain events, although this one hasn’t amounted to much as I write on Friday. There isn’t much tillage getting accomplished as the weather hasn’t cooperated, so it will be interesting to see if Mother Nature cooperates moving forward. A few of you have reached out indicating you’re still struggling to get harvest complete. I know where it was wet this spring; some stuff went in the ground fairly late. Good luck to those who are still running. Keep in touch and keep me posted on what’s going on around your operation if you get the chance.

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The corn and bean markets came out of the gate rallying on Monday, but gave most or all of those gains back by the end of the week. Talk of the EPA possibly delaying the rollback of tax credits for imported energy wasn’t well-received by the market. South American weather is a mixed bag, with Argentina dry and Brazil in solid shape overall. Outside markets were again active on the week and were trading as such heading into the weekend.

• The US Dollar was down .460 at 99.160
• December crude oil was down .96 at 60.02
• The DOW was down 512 points at 47,260    

CORN

December 2025 corn came out of the gate on Monday, firing on all cylinders after a bearish USDA report last Friday. December settled at $4.25 ½, down 1. This was 2 ¼ off the high and 1 ½ off the low. December lost 4 ¾ cents for the week. While the early-week enthusiasm gave us a boost, there was no follow-through buying to show up, and corn sold off for the rest of the week. While corn demand is excellent, there appears to be plenty of corn if a person fully believes the report last week. I think 186 is still too high of a yield, but the market is certainly going to trade whatever yield the USDA gives us until there is an update that proves otherwise.

DEMAND

Corn export demand reports are filing in, but we didn’t get a number for this past week just yet. Ethanol grind was 1 mb higher, coming in at 105 MB. Stocks were up from a week ago. Basis was steady:

• My local basis: 20 under December (no change)
• Decatur: 5 over December (no change)
• Louis River: 15 over December (no change)

CASH CORN

Cash prices were down a bit on the week. Basis was steady in most places, so the drop on the board was reflected in many areas on cash price. It’s been noted, however, that some areas are seeing a strong push for corn. I have clients in various areas who had pushes of 10-20 cents over posted bids to get corn delivered in the next couple of weeks. It’s clear that some end-users didn’t originate the corn they assumed they would at harvest. As a grower, I would make sure the places I’m dealing with know what I have on hand and what kind of bid I’m looking for. I know in northern Indiana, there was a posted bid of 20 over that was pushed to 40 over for 50k or more bushels. While it takes quantity to get a big push sometimes, we don’t know if we don’t ask. I remain interested in corn ownership given an incredible demand pace so far in this marketing year. If price action doesn’t improve, that demand is unlikely to back off. So, if a person sells some corn and wants to re-own, it can be accomplished till next summer quite reasonably.

2026 CORN

December 2026 corn ended the week at $4.60, down 6 ½ cents. December 2026 dropping down to a dime under the 2025 spring insurance price doesn’t excite me at all. Given SX26 traded above $11 all week, I’d have to think we’ll see the ratio (currently 2.42/1) narrow by the time February rolls around. This could be achieved with lower bean prices for sure, but with input costs so high, I have to think December 2026 needs to be above $4.70 to keep acreage high enough to have a shot at satisfying demand. Much can happen with South American weather or spring weather in the US, so I’m going to stay patient for now while looking for opportunities to get some worst-case scenarios locked in. As always, my goal is to lock in worst-case scenarios with some flex to participate in a rally should it occur. CLICK HERE for more info on the AgMarket app. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0

Corn Market Theme: The corn market was dead this past week. The best action regarding corn was basis pushes that we observed in several areas. Look for opportunities to sell cash at better levels than what is posted if you need to move corn or core bins.

BEANS

Beans rallied sharply to start the week but gave back most of the gains by Friday’s close. January beans settled up 2 ½ at $11.25. This was 2 ½ off the high and 11 ¾ off the low. Beans rallied ½ cent on the week. December meal settled 7.4 lower on the week at 315.1, while soy oil ended the week at 50.26, up .11. The bean market seemed to shrug off the lower move from last Friday when we came out of the gate on Monday. With talk of Chinese soybean purchases, we saw a 30+ cent gain on Monday. However, talk that imported used cooking oil may still receive the maximum tax benefit for another year or two was not well-received by the market. Hopefully, the idea that we need domestic consumption to continue growing will be a message the administration doesn’t ignore. Given the growth in South America, particularly Brazil, our place in the world export market for soybeans is unlikely to see growth anytime soon, if ever again. The bean market could rally sharply if we see enough weather issues in South America. Without a weather issue, I’d expect rallies to be a little harder to come by.

DEMAND

As with corn, we’re seeing some of the export sales reports, but they’re from weeks ago, so we don’t know an up-to-date total on export sales. Basis was mixed/improving.

• My local beans: 30 under January (no change)
• Decatur: Option the January (no change)
• River: 8 over the January (six cents improved)

CASH BEANS

Cash beans weren’t moving much this past week. While basis popped on the river, most interior bids were stagnant. The river improvement was likely due to increased interest in Chinese purchases, as several cargoes were booked. Most, if not all, of those beans would likely go out of the gulf, so it appears buyers might have been attempting to get some beans bought for that reason. For these old-crop beans, we must remember from where we’ve rallied. I’d be tempted to incrementally sell some beans here and there, given we’re a buck-fifty off of the fall-harvest lows in many places. Can we go another dollar or more higher? Of course, but that will certainly be dependent on the issues we’ve already discussed, particularly the weather in South America.    

2026 BEANS

November 2026 beans settled at $11.12, down 3 on the week. With this 2026 bean market, the high for the week was $11.31 ½, which is the highest price we’ve seen since the summer of 2024 for this contract. While I’d like to reward this rally, I’d keep some flex in the plan, especially if you get aggressive with your sales. I know not everyone can call these prices profitable, but for those who can sell at break-even or above, it makes sense to get an increment price. If you hedge these beans at say, $11.20, consider you may get a chance to roll any hedges out to July next fall. This past fall, we saw a carry in the market of 65 cents at times. If you were able to roll at 50-60 cents, we’d be getting our board-based price close to $12. A hedge like this would certainly be best suited to the bushels stored at home, so keep that in mind. You could also enter a three-way floor, which would give us a put close to the market while giving up some upside if we happen to rally sharply. Regardless, I want to lock in some worst-case scenarios on this rally. We can do it several different ways, but in my opinion, ignoring a dollar-plus rally doesn’t seem wise.

Bean Market Theme: The bean market has been steady but backed off the week’s highs. I’d be in the camp of some incremental sales for those who have some catching up to do.

As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure out your break-evens and put your plan in place:

👉 https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0  

Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.