October 22nd Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

One thing is for sure around our place: fall has arrived. We found out it can indeed rain at our farm, still, as we saw 2.5 in. of rain over the weekend. On the back side of that front moving through, it got chilly compared to the temperatures we’ve seen the last few weeks. While fieldwork and harvest slowed for a couple of days, it wasn’t for long, even with a nice soaker. In fact, some in the area were working ground on Monday, just a day after the rain ended. I’ve heard a few talk about fall anhydrous now that there’s some moisture in the ground, but it doesn’t quite seem cold enough for that just yet. There is some dry fertilizer going on, but plenty of talk about how the grower has backed off on application rates, but that’s not a shock. Let me know what changes you might implement or what you’ve heard in your area. For more information on AgMarket, click here.  https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0  

The corn market was on the defensive, while beans lost a little ground as well. While nothing good was happening on the trade/tariff front, harvest activity is likely providing some pressure. The weather in the US has seen an interruption, but the pace is still assumed to be mostly normal. Outside markets should have provided a mixed bias:

• The US Dollar settled up .356 at 711.
• December crude oil settled up .22 at 24.
• The DOW settled up 222 points at 47,135.  

CORN

The corn market saw both sides unchanged with a lower bias for most of the day session. December corn closed 3 ½ lower at $4.19 ¾. This was 4 ¾ off the high and 1 ¼ off the low. Corn export inspections came in on Monday at 1.318 mmt, which was above expectations and ahead of the pace needed to meet the lofty USDA export goal. This is good news, but it should be no surprise. Corn is still cheap, and demand doesn’t go away when we see cheap prices. With some of these basis levels strengthening, it appears the grower has been hesitant to sell, putting corn in storage at home and bagging more corn this year than I assume we’ve ever seen. While we have plenty of corn ultimately, it appears the end-user is chasing some bushels where harvest is wrapping up, as they must not have gotten what they expected to.

In other areas in the west, we’re hearing some facilities are getting full, so expecting a basis push in those situations is asking for quite a bit. For harvest progress, there is no report from the USDA, but the average trader’s guess was 59% versus 65% a year ago. I feel that’s a bit low but a solid pace. We’re still of the opinion acres for 2026 will likely dip a fair bit, so we could see some support for the next few weeks on December 2026 relative to other corn contracts. On Tuesday, December 2026 corn settled 3 lower on Tuesday at $4.55. That price doesn’t excite me too much at this juncture. I’m going to be patient here.

 SOYBEANS

Soybeans were higher overnight after a strong close on Monday, before seeing some selling pressure come in. November beans were down 1 on Tuesday at $10.30 ¾. This was 7 ¼ off the high and 3 off the low. Soybean meal was up 1.9 at 286.9, while soy oil was down .66 at 50.65. The weekly inspections showed beans at 1.474mt, which was well above expectations. As with corn, we still have no crop conditions or harvest progress, but the trade estimated harvest is 74% completed versus 81% a year ago. That seems a shade low to me as it does with corn, but either way, bean harvest is advancing at a good clip. Bean basis for us has narrowed a fair bit, and one of the biggest processors in the Midwest is offering ‘free-dp’ on beans through next September. That’s not all that common at this time of year. It’s an indication they didn’t get the beans bought they were planning on. While this is the case in my area, some have talked about basis widening, especially west of the Mississippi. My thought on beans is still to store or bag them if at all possible, while looking to sell the beans that have to be delivered and owning a few on paper with a limited-risk call or call spread. On Tuesday, November 2026 beans closed 1 ½ lower at $10.72 ¾.

Matt Bennett
mbennett@agmarket.net
815-665-0462  
@chief321