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September 17th Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

I hope your week has gotten off to a great start. While we sat on Monday as we had nothing dry enough to harvest, we nosed out in some corn on Tuesday. One of our first-planted fields was testing 23-24, but the boss said he’d rather give it a few days and let Mother Nature do her thing. We have a fair amount of beans that we will cut in the next few days, but we’re going to be hit and miss for a bit. We don’t have a dryer, but if we did, we’d be going full-bore. I worry that by the time we get to the end of harvest, we’ll have moisture contents like the WCB dealt with last fall. We are still experiencing no rain, with some farms going 46 days without measurable precipitation. Some have reported to me that the soybeans on black dirt are yielding 10-20 Bu./A. better than light ground planted the same week. This would, of course, be in those areas like ours that have been bone dry for a few weeks. We have no ballgames for a bit, so harvest will be the main focus. For more info on AgMarket, CLICK HERE. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0 

The corn and bean markets were on the defensive on Sunday night through Monday, but gained back the losses on Tuesday. In all honesty, these markets have been impressive since the report last Friday, which would certainly qualify as a bit bearish. Adding acres but bumping demand higher tells me the USDA likely lowers demand on any drop in yield. Outside markets should have provided a mixed bias:

  • The US dollar settled down .637 at 95.968
  • October crude oil settled up 1.22 at 64.52
  • The DOW settled down 137 points at 45,784    

 CORN

The corn market gained back Monday’s losses on Tuesday with some impressive buying coming in. December corn closed 6 ¼ higher at $4.29 ½. This was 1 ¾ off the high and 6 ½ off the low. Corn export inspections came in on Monday at 1.512 mmt, which was above expectations, and the average trade guess was 250kt lower. Good/excellent dropped by 1% to 67%, while the weekly crop progress report shows 85% of the crop dented and 7% harvested. The corn yields we are hearing are all over the board, with high managed acres showing a big yield. Unfortunately, some of those areas that were excessively wet this summer needed a couple of shots of fungicide, at least from what we’re hearing. My best estimate is the USDA is still high on yield, but again, we may see them lower production and demand from this point forward. I think old crop corn will be in plentiful supply, but I also think the trade is starting to wonder what 2026 looks like with record US and world demand. Therefore, I like corn ownership where we can keep it at home and ownership of calls or call spreads for bushels that have to go to town. Let us know if you need any help with your plan. December 2026 corn settled 3 ¼ higher on Tuesday at $4.69 ½.

December ’25 Corn Chart

December ’25 Corn Chart_9.17

SOYBEANS

Soybeans had a good day on Tuesday, after giving some back on Monday. November beans were up 7 on Tuesday at $10.49 ¾. This was 2 ¾ off the high and 8 off the low. Soybean meal was up .6 at 285.8, while soy oil was up .93 at 52.69. The weekly inspections showed beans at 804k, which was well above expectations and a solid number as we continue to worry about the lack of Chinese demand. The good/excellent rating came in at 63%, which was a 1% decrease from a week ago. The report showed 41% dropping leaves and 5% harvested so far. For beans, we have seen a bounce even with slow demand and the USDA adding some acres. I have to think the trade isn’t buying the US yield at this point. Yes, there will be some excellent bean yields where producers had good rain in August, but in some of the areas of the ECB, we had as dry an August as we’ve seen in 100+ years. This doesn’t make for good bean yields, especially where they’re planted late. For beans, many of us have no choice but to get a better handle on yields before aggressively selling more. For 2026 beans, getting started on sales up here close to $11 doesn’t seem like a bad idea, especially as we feel US acres are stout in 2026, while the Brazilian grower plants 2-3% more beans yet again. On Tuesday, November 2026 beans closed 7 higher at $10.88 ½.

November ‘25 Soybean chart

soy_9.17

 

Matt Bennett 
815-665-0462 – Work 
@chief321 - Twitter  
mbennett@agmarket.net – E-mail