December 17th Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

I hope all is well for you and yours. It’s been a wild ride with the weather so far this year for many of us. Over the weekend, we had another 5-6 in. of snow, while temperatures dropped dramatically. With a high of 5 on Sunday, it was plenty brisk outside. Meanwhile, we’re getting back to the 40s and maybe up to 50 this week. While I don’t mind some freezing and thawing for the farmground, I’m afraid we’ll have sick kids and sick cattle with this weather behaving the way it is. Around home, we’ve been trying to keep the automatic water system from freezing and keep plenty of feed to the cows. Man, they’re burning through the hay so far this year. It’s been good getting the chance to talk to a few of you through e-mail and on the road. Don’t be afraid to reach out-the feedback is good for my feel of what’s going on out there. For more information on AgMarket, click here. 

Several of you have asked for more details on our winter conference on February 1 and 2, which you can find HERE. If you have questions, don’t hesitate to ask. 

The markets this week aren’t much to look at whatsoever. Corn and beans both have been on the struggle bus as the solid demand news hasn’t been enough to keep sellers at bay. Excellent weather overall across South America, particularly in Brazil, has kept bean selling active, and that has spilled over to corn. Outside markets should have provided a mixed bias:

• The US Dollar settled down .163 at 97.794
• January crude oil settled down 1.55 at 55.27
• The DOW settled down 330 points at 48,131       

CORN

The corn market looks lethargic as can be now that March has taken over as lead month on the board. March corn closed 3 ¼ lower at $4.36 ½. This was 3 ½ off the high and 1 off the low. Corn export inspections were above expectations, and a week ago, at 1.583 mmt. The USDA has raised exports a couple of times already, but this pace is torrid to say the least. Some in the market think this export pace is front-loaded, and it likely is to an extent. However, last year we heard at this time of year the pace was front-loaded as well, and we ended up with a big export sales number at the end of the year. With all that said, this market needs some unexpected good news. While a bullish January USDA report could cure some of what ails us, we can’t forget that even with a lower yield, we likely have a decent amount more corn on hand than we saw a year ago. If you don’t get corn moved on a basis push in here by the end of the year, it may take some patience to see prices at levels that excite you. There will be a ton of corn moving as soon as the calendar flips, so have a plan for how you’re going to proceed, both on old and new crop. On Tuesday, December 2026 corn settled 1 ½ lower at $4.59 ½.

SOYBEANS

Soybeans continue to struggle in a big way, even as we have filled gaps on these front-month contracts. January beans were down 9 at $10.62 ¾. This was 13 ½ off the high and 3 ¼ off the low. January soybean meal was down 1.1 at 302.4, while soy oil was down 1.12 at 48.36. The weekly inspections showed beans at 796kt, which was below expectations and below the previous week. This bean market has seen a big crush this week (all-time high for the month), and Chinese purchases continue, yet the selling hasn’t subsided one bit. Most likely, the biggest issue is what is forecasted to be another whopper of a crop out of Brazil. Given excellent conditions and big-time rain in the forecast, it looks like most areas outside of the far south and Argentina will be sitting in excellent shape.

With the forecast calling for rain in Argentina as well, a weather story out of SA may not materialize. If that’s the case, getting this bean market to rally, even after gaps have filled, might be a tall order. On old beans, I’d still have offers in. I wouldn’t get too caught up in where bean prices have been; instead, focus on what prices you can live with for your operation. Whether old or new beans, it all comes down to finding black ink for your operation. On Tuesday, November 2026 beans closed 8 ¼ lower at $10.80 ¼. 

Matt Bennett 

mbennett@agmarket.net

815-665-0462

@chief321