September 29th Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

I hope you’ve had a productive week. Our week has seen harvest pickup somewhat, but we’re still procrastinating more than I’d like. We actually had some rain on Sunday and Tuesday nights, which likely evened the beans out somewhat. While we’ve gotten some moisture injected back into some of them, we tried cutting some on Thursday, and they didn’t want to test. So, we’re picking some corn that isn’t quite dry but getting dry enough to go in the bin with only air on it. The yields on the lighter ground have fallen off for us quite a bit, which we’d expect with the terribly dry finish we had. However, the yields we’ve seen are better than we were afraid we’d see. For instance, our black ground, planted in April, saw soybean yields close to APH in the mid-70s to low-80s, while the light ground, planted in May, appears to be about 20 bushels per acre lower. It’s clear that soil types and planting dates will come up huge in those regions where we were the driest we’ve been in the last 133 years for August into mid-September. Given we have no sports going right now, we have most of the family involved in harvest most days, which sure makes it more enjoyable indeed. Keep the correspondence coming.

The Beck’s podcast will be every Tuesday at 10:30 CST, and I hope I’ll finally get to go from the combine, as the weather looks like it will cooperate. This coming week, I may do it a little later as the September stocks report will be released at 11. Here is the link for more info on the AgMarket app.  https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0  

The corn market was slightly lower on the week, while soybeans lost a little more ground once again. With trade, tariffs, and another round of MFP-type payments dominating the discussion, harvest pressure likely gave us the softer tone. Outside markets were mixed.   

• The US Dollar was up .554 at 97.824.
• December crude oil was up 2.46 at 65.14.
• The DOW was down 95 points at 46,556.       

CORN

December 2025 corn was pretty quiet overall. On Friday, December settled at $4.22, down 3 ¾. This was 3 ¾ off the high and ¾ off the low. December lost 2 cents for the week. With harvest activity, we’ll continue to see harvest pressure, especially with the grower quite undersold coming in. While I’ve been a fan of corn ownership on farther out, this is a tough time of year to expect a rally, especially when we’re talking such a massive crop. I am of the opinion that this yield is plenty high based on the results we’ve heard so far. However, the 98-million acres of corn give us plenty of leeway to move lower on yield. Huge demand forecasts also leave the balance sheet with some fluff that can easily be removed as yield moves lower. So, the likely trajectory for now is sideways to soft until we start dealing with 2026 and the massive US and World demand for corn. This is combined with a cash-strapped grower who is facing input costs in excess of those of a year ago. We have the September Quarterly Stocks report out on Tuesday. Most estimates suggest that we will find a little more corn than we did a year ago, but my bias is that we could see more than the market is expecting. We’ve heard old crop still being delivered and that there are plentiful stocks in MN, ND, and SD heading into harvest. Again, I like corn longer-term to be supported, but it’s a tough ask in the here and now.

December ’25 Corn Chart

DEMAND

Corn demand was mixed. Export sales came in at 1.9 MMT, which was 700k more than a week ago. No new-crop sales were posted, so overall sales were around 700k more than a week ago. Ethanol grind went down 3mb to just under 99 MB. Stocks were higher. Basis was widening:

• My local basis: 37 under Dec (no change)
• Decatur: 20 under Dec (5 cents wider)
• St. Louis River: 1 under Dec (6 cents improved)

CASH CORN

Cash prices didn’t move much this past week. With the board trading both sides of last week’s close and basis mixed, we saw prices close to where we were just a week ago. Given that harvest is really ramping up, some hedge pressure is a feature we’d expect. I know many growers are going to put corn in the bin, bag it, or even put some on the ground, given that basis levels are telling us they don’t want the corn right now. There is carry in the market, but seeing 17 cents from December to March and 31 cents from December to July isn’t even close to full carry. It appears that some in the industry believe this crop isn’t as large as the USDA has forecasted. Given the yield reports we’re seeing, I think we’ll likely see yields scale back by several bushels in October. All in all, I think having corn ownership in one way or another makes great sense. I like owning it on paper versus in the elevator, in storage, or keeping our bins full for now.       

2026 CORN

December 2026 corn ended the week at $4.60, down 2. I am still of the opinion that December 2026 is too cheap, considering the big demand and restrictive fertilizer costs. We’re a dime below this year’s spring insurance price, so it’s tough to sell up here when we’re not even to break even for most growers if they pencil in APH yields. If I were to sell corn, I’d be pretty flexible in my plan. We could HTA some corn with the thought that we’ll buy calls at some point. If we’re buying this expensive fertilizer, we darn sure want to consider some sort of hedge on 2026, even as poor as it looks. If you need assistance analyzing your risk-management plan, please don't hesitate to reach out.     

Corn Market Theme

The corn market was dead this past week. Harvest trade is often like this, especially with such a large crop. Keep some flex in your plan and consider corn ownership to whatever degree you can handle.

SOYBEANS

Beans were again lower on the week. On Friday, November beans settled up 1 ½ at $10.13 ¾.  This was 2 off the high and 5 off the low. Soybeans lost 12 ¾ cents on the week. Oct meal settled 14.1 lower on the week at 268.8, while soy oil ended the week at 49.60 down .43. This past week, the bean trade was dominated by bearish news on the world front. A week ago Friday, the much-anticipated call between President Trump and Xi centered on TikTok as expected, but the lack of mention of soybeans was a big disappointment. Then we come in on Sunday night and find that Argentina is suspending its export tax to spur some trade, and the Chinese reportedly took advantage, buying up to 40 cargoes of beans. By the end of the week, that export tax was put back on, but the damage had been done with up to 2 ½ mmt of beans sold. Considering Brazil has Chinese needs met for September and October, and now Argentina has some of November/December covered, we’re losing leverage on our biggest customer. Chinese purchases of US beans accounted for 19% of our demand last marketing year, and it appears that this percentage is moving significantly lower for this marketing year. We must continue to move towards more domestic consumption, especially when considering Brazil’s growth isn’t slowing down anytime soon. I think the best bean yields have been harvested with a much more somber set of numbers hitting us when we get into later-planted beans with the late finish in such a large part of the Midwest. While yield likely moves lower, we have excess demand to trim on beans as well. It’s going to be tough to see a bean rally of any significance without a favorable trade deal.

November ‘25 Soybean chart

DEMAND

Soybean exports were down for old-crop at 724k tons, which was 200k less than we saw a week ago. No sales were posted for the next marketing year, so bean exports overall were down. Basis was mixed.

• My local beans: 52 under November (no change)
• Decatur: 30 under November (2 cents improved)
• River: 27 under November (a penny improved)

CASH BEANS

Cash beans were lower on the week once again, and the board continued to sell off. With the lack of a trade deal with China, it’s been tough sledding of late. Argentina's taking off its export tax resulted in around 40 cargoes being sold to China in the November/December timeframe. Given Brazil has the Chinese covered for September and most of October, we’re losing the main export window we typically enjoy. Looking at beans, cash bids show the lack of export demand. A big issue is that interior bids are reflective of bids on the river not being aggressive due to the lack of business. Spreads have more carry than with corn, but not nearly enough. Nov/July at 60 cents is something to consider, though. Given the basis is quite likely to be much better next summer, putting beans in the bin and locking that carry in seems to be a wise decision. Storing them commercially is tough to recommend, as storage charges are robust to put it mildly. For those who have to deliver them to town, re-owning some beans isn’t a bad idea, but I’m not nearly as friendly to beans long-term as I am with corn. Brazil will plant more beans again this year as they always do, while the US grower likely ups acreage substantially in ’26. It could be tough sledding for bean prices for a while.                        

2026 SOYBEANS

Nov 2026 beans settled at $10.64 ¾, down 5 ½ on the week. I can’t say this enough, but if you’re considering going heavy beans for 2026, I’d consider some sort of flexible strategy as those decisions are made. For instance, if a person wants to protect the floor and give up some upside, they could do a strategy where we buy a $10.80 put, sell a $9.80 put, and sell a $12 call for 22 cents. The floor in this case would be $10.58, just under today’s market, giving us around 80 cents of downside protection and the ability to participate in a rally up to $12 basis the board. Given my expectation of big bean acres in the US in ’26 and knowing Brazil plants more beans every year, expecting a big bean rally in ’26 seems unwise. At the very least, I like putting a worst-case scenario in place. If something like that appeals to you and you want to consider alternatives, let us know. We can build you something you feel comfortable putting in place.   

Soybean Market Theme

The bean market has been rough of late. It’s admirable that we have stayed above $10 for now. Consider flexible strategies for 2026, while taking advantage of the carry for old crop.                   

As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure out your break-evens and put your plan in place:

👉 https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0  

Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.