April 29th Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

We are sitting. After having a good run on Wednesday through Saturday, we parked it until the rain showed up. On Monday, we had 2-4 ½ inches with the heaviest amounts where we haven’t planted yet, so it’s going to take a little time. The fields we planted closer to the rain concern me a bit, but we’ll just have to wait and see. Our temps this week are moderate with highs in the low-60s, so at least we’re not going to bake the ground. I know several of you are still sitting-and I appreciate the feedback. I sure hope it gets better for you here soon. Keep me posted. For on AgMarket, click here. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0

The corn market is strong to start the week, following along with a stout wheat market. Beans aren’t getting in in the action just yet and have lagged a bit. With such a poorly rated wheat crop and decent progress on bean planting, thoughts of potentially more bean acres have likely been holding beans back in my opinion. With war in the Middle-East not making much progress, energy and ags have likely felt support. Outside markets should have provided a mixed bias:

• The US Dollar settled up .158 at 98.476.
• June crude oil settled up 3.56 at 99.93.
• The DOW settled down 45 points at 49,297.

Corn – The corn market is having a nice week so far. July corn closed up 6 ¼ at $4.75 ½. This was 9 ½ off the high and 6 ¾ off the low. Corn export inspections were above expectations at 1.644 mmt. This was just less than a week ago but still impressive. Shipments of corn are running over 30% ahead of last year while the USDA is forecasting around a 15% increase. 25% of the crop is planted, which compares to 22% last year and 19% for the 5-year average. While corn has its own story with some areas possibly backing off on acreage due to weather and/or fertilizer prices, it’s getting some help from a rallying wheat market. World feedgrain prices are likely benefiting off of potential Urea shortages and other nitrogen like anhydrous, which could have shortages and price implications. I like the action, but as always would prefer an incremental sale on a rally versus getting too bulled up. On the flip-side, I’m 40-50% sold or protected and want to keep flexibility on any additional sales moving forward. It sure looks like Dec26 corn is heading to $5-which settled up 6 ¼ t $4.95 ¾.

Soybeans – Soybeans aren’t rallying along with the corn and wheat market so far this week. July beans were down 2 ¾ at $11.89 ¾. This was 3 off the high and 7 off the low. July soybean meal was down .4 at 327.4, while soy oil was higher, settling up 1.12 at 73.38. Weekly inspections showed bean shipments at 748k mt, which was below expectations again and below what we saw a week ago. Bean planting continues to make progress with 23% of the crop planted versus 17% a year ago and 12% as a 5-year average. While corn planting has edged ahead of bean planting, it’s clear many growers prioritized planting beans first this year as evidenced by progress so far. Bean demand domestically remains strong, but with thoughts bean acres could grow due to how this spring and geo-political issues are playing out, some pressure is holding us back. Several of these contracts are within striking distance of $12, so it’s possible if we can establish ourselves above $12, we can go back and test the old highs closer to $12.50. If that happens, a person would have been glad to keep some flex in their plan. Whether old or new beans, I like having some skin in the game in the environment we’re in currently. However, it sure seems like beans want to make a run at $12 again. Nov beans settled at $11.67, up 1 ¼.

mbennett@agmarket.net

Matt Bennett

815-665-0462 – Work

@chief321 - Twitter