August 12th Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

I know many of you have been blessed with good rains to finish out your corn and bean crops. We’ve had a shower here and there but for the most part, we’ve missed out. Our crops look good overall, and in fairness, the bean crop could be special. We just need a rain to finish them. The travel I’ve done the last two weeks has shown me some serious nitrogen loss in many fields in many locations. I’d be scouting as much as possible before adjusting yields higher, especially if you were in one of these areas that got pounded by big rains in June. Fortunately, the travel Beck’s is having me do gets me home each night-can’t beat it. Kids are about to start school-and while Tif home-schools them for the most part, Toby, who will be a freshman is going to go part-time so he can take ag classes. Things are good here. Keep me posted. For more on AgMarket, click here. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0

The markets started the week with some buying but has seen selling as well. We’re likely positioning-evening heading into the report. The report today is going to be a big one with large implications. We’ll detail it after with a podcast. With tensions in the Black Sea region and Strait of Hormuz still high, geo-political tensions remain. Outside markets likely had a supportive impact:

• The US Dollar settled up .012 at 99.715.
• September crude oil settled up 1.07 at 83.20.
• The DOW settled down 183 points at 53,880.

Corn – The corn market has been fairly dead to start the week without a ton of movement. On Tuesday, September corn closed down 1 ½ at $4.36 ¾. This was 4 ¼ off the high and 2 ¾ off the low. Corn export inspections were above expectations at 1.74 mmt. This shipments number was again above expectations and keeps us 25% ahead of last year’s pace, while the USDA is forecasting 16% in excess of a year ago. The crop ratings stayed at 61% good/excellent, compared to 72% from a year ago There’s no doubt this crop appears to have more limitations than what we saw a year ago. While many indicate their crop is potentially best ever, I’ve heard just as many or more say their crop is good, not great. The expectations for the report today are averaging out at a 182.3 yield for corn-or under USDA’s 183. We’ll want to see what total production is as well just in case the USDA pulls their acreage increase trick again. While I of course hope for a bullish report, it’s tough to expect it, even with poor crop conditions as compared to a year ago. Keep some flex on new-crop but consider selling if you know you can make money at these prices. Dec corn settled down 1 ¼ at $4.60 ½.

Soybeans – Soybeans were up a bit on Monday but gave it back and then some on Tuesday. September beans settled 10 ¼ lower at $11.51 ½. This was 13 ¾ off the high and 3 ½ off the low. Sep soybean meal was down .5 at 305, while soy oil was down .96 at 68.57. Weekly inspections showed bean shipments at 399k mt, which was just below expectations. The bean crop was rated 62% good/excellent, declining 1%. The bean crop a year ago was rated 68% g/e, so this year’s crop appears to be in tougher shape than where we were a year ago. The average trade guess for today’s report is a yield of 52.8, or just below the USDA’s 53. As with corn, there has been chatter about bean acreage climbing this year as well. AgMarket is suggesting a yield of 53.3, due to the wetter bias many have seen the last two weeks. While we have strong demand both domestically and in the world, a bearish report here could make it tough to see a rally heading into harvest. As with corn, I’d keep some flex but be willing to reward any price where you can pencil in a profit. Nov beans settled at $11.68 ¾, down 10 ¾.

mbennett@agmarket.net

Matt Bennett

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