August 19th Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

I finally got some good rain. Over the course of the whole weekend, we had between 1 ½ and 2 ½ inches of rain on our farms. While the corn may not benefit a great deal from it, we’ll keep a few kernels we may have aborted and add some test weight-so no complaints at all. Where I’m a little more excited is this bean crop. I hate it for those who had too much rain-no doubt it’s a kick in the teeth at this time of year. On our farm, the rain couldn’t have come better. I doubt we aborted pods just yet, but either way, the pods we have will fill nicely. I may not have a record bean crop, but we’ll have darn good beans after finally catching this August rain. Kids are starting school-with mom as the teacher again. Toby, the freshman, is going to ag class at school, so I won’t have my cart driver this fall every day like the last few years. Speaking of that, I would imagine within a month we get started. Keep me posted. For more on AgMarket, click here. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0

The markets started the week with some strength as thoughts about the weekend weather were more along the lines of hurting the crop than helping. Tuesday’s trade was a more muted tone with both corn and beans ending the day well off the highs and closer to unchanged. Outside markets likely had a mixed impact:

• The US Dollar settled up .02 at 99.554.
• September crude oil settled up .44 at 84.94.
• The DOW settled down 142 points at 53,403.

Corn – The corn market was strong on Monday and quieted down on Tuesday. September corn closed down 1 ¾ at $4.63 ¼. This was 5 off the high and 1 off the low. Corn export inspections were above expectations at 1.91 mmt. This shipments number was again above expectations and impressive to say the least. The crop ratings dropped to 60% good/excellent, compared to 71% from a year ago. Given the USDA already dropped the crop to 180.7, some are wondering aloud if the crop could get cut more yet. Given extreme weather to finish, the question is did the rain provide an overall benefit or a net reduction. The ProFarmer tour is going on this week. With South Dakota yields coming in 12% lower than a year ago and Ohio 3% lower than a year ago, the big questions will be if the bigger production states follow through. Indiana and Nebraska results will both be posted later on Tuesday night. Once you read this, we’ll know what those states are forecasted at. Illinois is going to show stress for sure with where that route goes. While they’ll likely see some of the best corn you can see, I’m afraid the state overall has enough holes and N loss to pare back yields a fair bit from the last couple of years. I don’t mind a person rewarding this rally if they have old corn or want to get caught up on new. However, I have to think we’ll see some strength in these markets given a lower US yield, big demand and world weather concerns. Dec corn settled down 1 ½ at $4.88.

Soybeans – Soybeans were up strong on Monday but was quiet as well on Tuesday. September beans settled ¼ lower at $12.00 ¾. This was 14 ½ off the high and 2 ½ off the low. Sep soybean meal was up .9 at 313, while soy oil was down 1.75 at 69.69. Weekly inspections showed bean shipments at 170k mt, a marketing-year low. The bean crop was rated 61% good/excellent, declining 1%. The bean crop a year ago was rated 68% g/e. As with corn, the bean crop appears to be behind a year ago. However, with ample rain in late July and early August, I’m not so sure this bean yield isn’t getting bigger. I know some have had damage due to excessive rainfall. However, the overall rain distribution should support excellent pod-fill. With all of this being said, it appears the funds want to own beans. Given weather concerns for South America due to the ‘Super El Nino’, another record crop isn’t a given by any means. World demand for beans has surged over the last couple of years, following along with the US and their strong crush pace. We have to see big production out of both hemispheres, so any sign of weather issues should be strongly supported. Nov beans settled at $12.16 ¾, up ¾.

mbennett@agmarket.net

Matt Bennett

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