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August 26th Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

It’s been a nice week around here. With temps moderate and overnight lows almost chilly, the crops are getting a chance to finish well. Quite a bit of the corn in our area is firing, while I assume some of it is just getting close to the finish line. Some corn has been harvested in Illinois this week and last, but it hasn’t been widespread and I haven’t heard any moisture levels. I assume we’ll start by the 10th of September on some corn and try to get some out before switching to beans. I haven’t seen any beans of mine turning, but some in the area are starting to. I assume some beans will be cut around the same time I start on corn. I appreciate the feedback-keep it coming. For more on AgMarket, click here. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0

The markets on Monday showed weakness for beans while corn was rallying. Tuesday kept the ball rolling on corn while beans clawed back the losses from Monday. It appears the funds are in buy mode, plain and simple. Not much improvement in geo-political issues has occurred, supporting especially feed-grains. Outside markets likely had a mixed impact:

  • The US Dollar settled down .091 at 98.838.
  • October crude oil settled down 2.65 at 82.36.
  • The DOW settled up 156 points at 53,645.

Corn – The corn market was strong on Monday and continued the strength on Tuesday. September corn closed up 9 at $5.00 ½. This was 1 ¼ off the high and 11 ½ off the low. Corn export inspections were below expectations at 1.29 mmt. These shipments backed off a bit after a run of several weeks of strong numbers. The crop ratings dropped to 57% good/excellent, a 3% drop and much lower than the to 71% from a year ago. The ProFarmer tour’s final number at 173.2 sure seems to be giving the funds plenty of reasons to extend their long position. Given their production number was 7 bushels under the USDA, traders are aware if this USDA number is closer to PF than their August number, the balance sheet could get uncomfortably tight. As we’ve said for some time, we feel corn will be excellent property. With that being said, selling into a rally at profitable levels is tough to argue with. Personally, I’m in no hurry given we are 50% sold of APH. My hope is of course our corn crop is above APH, but I’m not planning on it by any means. Either way, I’ll have plenty of corn to sell-and the corn going in the bin should be excellent property given current circumstances. Dec corn settled up 8 at $5.23 ½.

Soybeans – Soybeans were down hard on Monday before rebounding on Tuesday. September beans settled up 12 at $12.28. This was 1 ½ off the high and 18 ½ off the low. September soybean meal was unchanged at 320.3, while soy oil was down 2.22 at 67.13. Weekly inspections showed bean shipments at 421k mt, a big improvement over last week. The bean crop was rated 60% good/excellent, declining 1%. The bean crop a year ago was rated 69% g/e. While the bean crop has poor ratings, the moisture in August typically means a bean crop is getting bigger. Time will tell is this is the case, but it’s tough to be bullish if only looking at the US crop, especially with 5+ million more acres than a year ago. I believe the trade is looking at the South American forecast more every day, and with a Super El Nino, production could be susceptible. Remember, this is at a time when world stocks haven’t grown even with back-to-back record bean crops from Brazil. While I’m fine rewarding the market with some bean sales at levels we haven’t enjoyed the past few years, I want some skin in the game should this bean market get wild. Nov beans settled at $12.37 ¾, up 13 ½.

mbennett@agmarket.net

Matt Bennett

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