July 22nd Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

We are now missing the rains. While we had more than enough moisture in June, July has been dry and the heat has taken its toll on crops. Fortunately, we have a cool-down in the forecast starting on Wednesday, but it appears to be short-lived. For us, our forecast shows no rain in the two-week forecast while hot temps return over the weekend. If the forecast doesn’t change for us, our crop we’ve been dialing in will likely dial back a bit. The 4H fair will be wrapped up on Wednesday night-and no big storm yet. Man, I was sure if anything could make it happen, that would. For more on AgMarket, click here. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0

The markets started on Sunday night with the rally from last week continuing. With forecasts still threatening, the trade saw nice gains on Sunday night’s open. While we held onto a good bit of gains, we certainly settled well off the highs, while Tuesday brought more buying on corn while beans backed off. World issues are alive and well which has supported commodities overall. Outside markets likely had a suportive impact:

• The US Dollar settled up .220 at 101.001.
• September crude oil settled up 1.86 at 84.34.
• The DOW settled up 370 points at 52,443.

Corn – The corn market started the week with solid gains on Sunday night, and the b uying slowed but continued into Tuesday. September corn closed up 3 ¼ at $4.52 ¾. This was 1 off the high and 7 ¼ off the low. Corn export inspections were above expectations at 1.550 mmt. This shipments number was on par with last week and keeps us 25% ahead of last year’s pace, while the USDA is forecasting 16% more than a year ago. It appears the USDA will have to raise exports yet again in August. The crop ratings declined to 67% good/excellent, which still lags the rating of 74% a year ago. While the crop overall is rated solid, it appears we have something not near as good as a year ago. Given many of us feel the USDA missed the 2025 crop due to how the NASS report came out in June, I have to wonder if a 183 is in the cards at this point. While some of the forecasts continue to try and bring rain in, there are no givens this time of year-and with the heat taking its toll of late, my assumption is ratings decline a fair bit this next week. This corn market could get exciting if we see conditions deteriorate, but there’s no way of knowing how this weather might play out. My best advice is still to use rallies to catch up on sales but the more aggressive a person gets, the more flex they need in their plan. Dec corn settled up 2 ¼ at $4.75 ¼.

Soybeans – Soybeans also rallied on Sunday but gave back some of those gains on Tuesday. August beans settled 6 ½ lower at $12.19 ½. This was 8 off the high and 8 ¼ off the low. August soybean meal was up 3.2 at 326.7, while soy oil was down .38 at 74.30. Weekly inspections showed bean shipments at 297k mt, which was below expectations again and lower than a week ago by over 100k. The bean crop was rated 66% good/excellent, so it improved 1%. The bean crop a year ago was rated 68% g/e, so this year’s crop seems to be similar to the crop of a year ago. With that being said, given how dry we’ve gotten in many areas, we need to see August weather a little more favorable. The bean crop could be solid overall, but if we are dry in August, I assume the strength we’ve seen of late will continue. If we look at Monday’s trade, we saw new highs for this bean market. Scoring yet more new highs will be a likelihood without good August weather the way this market is acting. Still, if a person needs to catch up on sales, there’s no better time to sell an increment that right at the highs. I think flexibility on beans is just as important as it is on corn if we decide to get aggressive. Nov beans settled at $12.22 ¾, down 3 ½.

mbennett@agmarket.net

Matt Bennett

815-665-0462 – Work

@chief321 - Twitter

mbennett@agmarket.net – E-mail