July 29th Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

We keep missing the rains around here. While a couple of my farms have had a tenth or two, the month of July brought less than an inch on all but one farm of mine. Our crop is hanging in there for now, and with a forecast still trying to offer some rain, I’m holding out hope we finish this corn crop in good fashion and give the beans a chance. Our beans look great and are podded well, but they need some rain soon or I’m afraid we could see some pods abort. Around home, it took a few days to catch up after the fair. Now, our sweet-corn is ready, so we’ll be on that over the next few days. For more on AgMarket, click here. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0

The markets started on Sunday night with a downward move as many of the forecasts showed more rain. Fortunately, on Tuesday we got back some of the losses, more-so on corn than beans. With both corn and beans showing solid declines in crop ratings, sellers quieted down a bit. Outside markets likely had a supportive impact:

• The US Dollar settled down .114 at 101.270.
• September crude oil settled down 3.35 at 79.26.
• The DOW settled up 562 points at 52,944.

Corn – The corn market started the week with losses on Sunday night into Monday’s close, but Tuesday saw a bit of a turn-around. September corn closed up 6 ¾ at $4.58 ½. This was 3 ¾ off the high and 7 off the low. Corn export inspections were above expectations at 1.360 mmt. This shipments number was lower than last week but keeps us 25% ahead of last year’s pace, while the USDA is forecasting 16% in excess of a year ago. The crop ratings declined to 63% good/excellent, a 4% drop. This is well below the 73% g/e from a year ago, which would indicate this crop isn’t near as good as we get closer to harvest. With last year a 186+, many models are currently showing around a 183 yield, which is exactly where the USDA is with their trend-line yield. It seems to me this corn market has solid support on dips. While we might have seen the high for old-crop corn already pre-harvest IF we start seeing more widespread rainfall, the overall corn story is far from over. Given strong demand and robust input costs, the job of the market in the next few months will be to encourage big corn acres in 2027. I don’t see that happening without a decent rally. Keeping flex on new-crop and ’27 sales should be considered while getting some corn sold in both instances on rallies. Dec corn settled up 6 ½ at $4.80 ½.

Soybeans – Soybeans took it on the chin on Sunday into Monday. While we settled higher on Tuesday, the gains paled in comparison to Monday’s losses. August beans settled 3 ½ higher at $12.12. This was 5 off the high and 9 ¾ off the low. August soybean meal was down .5 at 320.3, while soy oil was down .70 at 70.76. Weekly inspections showed bean shipments at 348k mt, which was above expectations and above a week ago. The bean crop was rated 63% good/excellent, declining 3%. The bean crop a year ago was rated 70% g/e, so this year’s crop is heading in the wrong direction and would appear to not have quite the potential we had a year ago. While it would appear US and world bean acres should be strong given price action and the lower cost to put them in the ground, demand remains robust. US domestic demand for beans is as strong as ever due to renewable diesel legislation while exports have been buoyed by Chinese purchases. IF the Chinese buy 25mmt as they agreed to, this balance sheet gets pretty tight. For new-crop beans, a person should keep their flex but keep of the mindset we want to incrementally reward rallies. IF this market sees less-than-ideal weather in August, a person would be smart to keep that flex as this bean market can move quickly. On the flip-side, if we get good rains in August, having some beans sold on these rallies will likely look pretty smart. Nov beans settled at $12.20, up 6 ¼.

mbennett@agmarket.net

Matt Bennett

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