November 5th Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

I hope your week is going great. While we’re seeing temperatures in the low-60s, quite a bit of anhydrous is occurring in our area, especially with soil temperatures low enough due to overnight lows in the low-30s. Fortunately, the rain we received a couple of weekends ago gave us enough moisture to feel good about putting it on, and it’s going as good as ever. We have most of our dry spread, and my final decisions there stayed true to what I’d been saying all along. We backed off by up to 50% from a year ago on some fields. Depending on fertility levels, we felt like the phosphate app couldn’t be the same as always. When looking at the cash flow, it just doesn’t work very well. We know we can’t skimp on N, so we’re going with what we usually do with an inhibitor, of course. At home, we are going from one season to the next, as is generally the case. Jr High basketball is now underway, so evenings at home will be at a premium. Please keep the correspondence coming—I appreciate hearing from all of you. For more information on AgMarket, click here.  https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0  

The corn and bean markets took a break from the recent rally with some profit-taking and hedge pressure noted on Tuesday. With an impressive run over the last couple of weeks, reports of China continuing to buy beans out of Brazil seemed to shake the market’s recent strength. Outside markets should have provided somewhat of a negative bias:

• The US Dollar settled up .363 at 99.715
• December crude oil settled down .49 at 60.56
• The DOW settled down 259 points at 47,214  

CORN

The corn market spent the whole day on the defensive but settled off the lows. December corn closed 2 ¾ lower at $4.31 ½. This was 3 off the high and 2 ¼ off the low. Corn export inspections came in on Monday at 1.669 mmt, which was a half-million tons above last week and well above expectations. Given the pace we’ve seen, next week’s USDA report could show exports even better than the lofty goals that have been set. While we’re still not receiving any data on harvest progress, the average analyst estimate for the amount completed is 83%, which is up 11% from a week ago and remains steady with the five-year average. The corn market hasn’t rallied like the bean market has of late. However, we have seen better pricing opportunities, albeit not by much, than we’ve seen in some time. Given this, the producer selling of corn has likely picked up. The market will look to the November USDA report at this point for direction on where to go from here. It may be tough to get a larger-scale rally without tightening up the World and/or US balance sheet. As always, setting a floor with flex would appear to be the best route to go.  On Tuesday, December 2026 corn settled 2 lower on Tuesday at $4.65 ¾.

SOYBEANS

Soybeans cooled off on the day after quite a strong run of late. January beans were down 12 ¾ on Tuesday at $11.21 ½. This was 13 ½ off the high and 9 off the low. Soybean meal was down 3.4 at 317.4, while soy oil was down .31 at 49.53. The weekly inspections showed beans at 965kt, which was below last week's levels and under expectations. As with corn, we still have no crop conditions or harvest progress, but the trade estimated harvest is 91% completed, which is again similar to the five-year average. The bean market has been straight up of late, but Tuesday was more of a day for profit-taking and possible hedge pressure. While many of the beans put in storage haven’t been there long, it would make sense for some of them to move. Given a $1+ rally on cash prices in many areas, I wouldn’t blame a grower for considering moving an increment of these beans. It’s certainly more profitable than we’ve seen in some time. As we look to 2026, our group continues to lock in flexible floors with options. With the opportunity to buy $11 puts, we implemented a couple of strategies this week, which gives us a worst-case scenario significantly above where many of this past fall’s beans were sold. Therefore, it seems like a good idea to continue rewarding this market, whether with old or new beans. On Tuesday, November 2026 beans closed 10 ½ lower at $11.03.  

Matt Bennett 
mbennett@agmarket.net
815-665-0462
@chief321