September 16th Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

I know many of you are running this week. On our farm, we picked 100 acres of corn that averaged a little under 20% before switching to beans on Tuesday. Our beans were 12-13% but had plenty of leaves yet. They weren’t the easiest cutting and were solid beans. While we had too much water at times taking out the ponds, the beans overall are well over APH while corn is APH or a bit better. The corn we’ve been in had way too much rain in June and the areas where we lost some N are apparent. Regardless, I’m not going to complain as yields are respectable so far. More are running every day around here, hoping we dodge this mid-week rain. I’ve heard from several of you dealing with way too much rain, so I hope that changes soon for you all. Keep me posted. For more on AgMarket, click here. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0

The markets started the week with some gains on Monday and Tuesday. Both corn and beans were able to rally after seeing the sell-off after the report last Friday. While the report wasn’t bearish, it’s tough to assume some harvest pressure won’t be in the market as we get heavy into getting these crops out. Outside markets likely had a mixed impact:

• The US Dollar settled up .235 at 99.341.
• October crude oil settled up 4.44 at 105.83.
• The DOW settled down 325 points at 52,115.

Corn – The corn market was up on Monday and again on Tuesday. December corn closed up 2 ½ at $5.35 ¾. This was ½ off the high and 8 ½ off the low. Corn export inspections were above expectations at 1.525 mmt. These shipments were down from a week ago but still large. The crop ratings stayed at 57% good/excellent, well below the 67% from a year ago. Corn harvest was pegged at 8% complete vs the 5-year-average at 6%. While last week ended on a sour note, this week has started with some buying. I have to think a big chunk of that is due to the excessive rain and flooding a good chunk of Iowa is experiencing this week. On Sunday night, forecasts were showing 4-6 inches for the whole state for the week. With recent heavy rainfall, this is a bad deal for those hoping to harvest before too long. The bottom-line is with a sub-10% stocks/usage ratio, we can’t afford to lose any more production. The bushels not priced yet I believe I’ll hold on for the time being to see how this plays out. With that being said, I have no issue with those who haven’t sold much stepping in to reward this market. It’s tough to argue with the best prices we’ve seen in 3 years. Dec27 corn settled up ¾ at $5.36.

Soybeans – Soybeans also posted solid gains the first two days of the week. November beans settled up 14 ½ at $13.18 ¾. This was ¾ off the high and 24 ½ off the low. October soybean meal was up 9.9 at 360.1, while soy oil was up .23 at 69.88. Weekly inspections showed bean shipments at 672k mt, an increase from a week ago levels and above expectations. The bean crop was rated 58% good/excellent, the same as a week ago. With 6% harvested, this compares to the 5-year average at 3%. As with corn, the wet harvest weather is likely giving some momentum to this bean market. With bean stocks dropping 15mb from a year ago after planting over 5.5 million additional acres, we again need all the production we can get. The meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi is set for next week on the 24^th. With many anticipating this meeting, the market will likely be tense. While I like some bean ownership as well, it’s tough to bypass $13+ during harvest-excellent price and better than we’ve seen in years. Nov27 beans settled at $12.74 ½, up 10 ¾.

mbennett@agmarket.net

Matt Bennett

815-665-0462 – Work

@chief321 - Twitter

mbennett@agmarket.net – E-mail