September 21st Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

I hope all is well around your place. I know more are harvesting every day in our area while many areas are just trying to dry out. This week, we harvested some corn at 17-18% that had dried over a point a day. We also saw the beans looking like they’d cut, so we tried our hand at some beans. This year for us many of these fields haven’t turned evenly. We have patches of beans with leaves and a few butter beans. As I put this together early Saturday morning, I’m thinking I’ll go back to corn for another day. The moisture on the beans was dead-on in the middle of the day, while we didn’t have any luck with moisture cutting them before noon. All I know is I’ve been burned by beans getting way too dry the last couple of years, but this year is starting a little different for us anyway. Bean yields are solid but not a record. Corn is likely to average around APH. We’ve seen excellent corn and some really common stuff. Keep me posted on harvest if possible. mbennett@agmarket.net.

For the podcast this week, I was in the field and talked about what we were up to as well as the state of the markets. Combine Update: Picking Corn, Moisture Checks & Managing Scale Bushels

The corn market was off a bit while beans were up some on the week, despite a big sell-off on Friday. Some harvest pressure is to be expected, while some concern the meeting with Presidents Trump and Xi could be postponed due to some potential health issues for Xi. Outside markets likely provided a positive bias:

• The US Dollar was up .780 at 99.930.
• October crude oil was up .25 at 100.3.
• The DOW was down 506 points at 52,079.

CORN

December ‘26 corn lost a little more ground as harvest picks up the pace. On Friday, Dec settled at $5.27 ½, down 3. This was 5 ¼ off the high and 2 off the low. Dec lost 2 ¾ for the week. The COT report showed funds bought 1 contract, keeping them at 414k. I thought that was quite interesting. Technically, this corn market is now below the 10 and 20-day moving averages and looks like a temporary high is in place from my seat. Fundamentally, I can come up with many reasons we could move higher yet. While many have reached out to me on here reporting yields, I haven’t had a person tell me their harvesting a record crop. I realize Iowa is sitting for the most part and is forecasted to be a state record. It stands to reason many will report records. However, last year I heard from countless growers they had a record crop. With demand strong as can be and what I would think is a decent chance yield is trimmed further, I still see corn as good property down the road. Old-crop is likely to be quite snug on stocks-to-use, while new-crop has tome work to do to get the acres corn needs.

DEMAND

Corn demand was mixed this past week. Exports came in at 1.026m, so it was around half of a week ago. Ethanol was steady at 1,099 mbpd, while stocks were up slightly. Basis was mixed:

• My local basis: 32 under Dec (no change)

• Decatur: 15 under Dec (a penny wider)

• St. Louis River: 25 under Dec (a nickel improved)

CASH CORN

Cash prices were slightly lower on the week. While combines roll, we have to expect basis won’t be improving anytime soon. I found it interesting the river improved a bit, but this is likely due to solid export demand. As I said earlier, I have a feeling this crop is a bit lower than the USDA indicated in September. It seems growers in the wetter areas from Missouri to Ohio in that June stretch indeed lost N. Some have reported yields to me 40-60 under a year ago, while others are talking a similar crop depending on nitrogen management. The saturated conditions caused issues for many of us from holes in the field to corn starved of nitrogen. Either way, it seems unlikely the crop gets bigger from here. Demand is strong for corn and until we see it rationed lower, prices should be steady if not rally. With that said, I have no issue selling some of this corn at harvest if it has to go to the elevator. If a person wants to stay long, I’d just buy a March call or call spread to keep ownership. The thing we’ll miss out on is a basis improvement, but the cost to carry it commercially to Jan is stout. Storing some bushels at the elevator may pay off this year due to this potential basis improvement, but there are no guarantees. I believe I’d split it up and store all the corn we can on the farm, but that’s just my opinion.

2027 CORN

December 2027 corn ended the week at $5.62, down 6 for the week. Dec27 isn’t a bad price when looking at fertilizer, at least if we compare it to last year’s situation. While I think Dec27 has a shot at some strength in a potential acreage battle, I still like hedging some of my risk off when buying fertilizer. As we get closer to February when we set the insurance price, it seems to me if we see any weather issues globally due to this strong El Nino, there may be a thought we need to buy corn acres. I’m not getting too aggressive just yet, but won’t ignore the rally at the same time. As always, I want some flex but will lock some worst-case scenarios in as we have black ink on the table. Here is the link for more info on the AgMarket app. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0

Corn Market Theme: The corn market will see hedge pressure during harvest. However, there’s a chance corn will be good property due to how tight these stocks remain.

BEANS

Beans had a bad Friday for the second week in a row. November beans settled at $13.03 ½, down 16 ¼ on Friday. This was 18 ½ off the high and 3 ½ off the low. Beans rallied 7 cents on the week. October meal rallied 7.8 on the week at 354.6, while soy oil was down 1.49, settling at 67.70. The COT report showed funds sold 16k contracts, reducing their long to 241k by Tuesday’s close. From a technical standpoint, the bean market closed below the 10-day moving average but remains above the 20-day. While beans also look like a high for now could be in place, the fundamentals remain quite friendly. Demand both globally and in the US remains strong with the need for big global production more-or-less a necessity. This bean crop could grow a bit though. I’ve heard a ton of excellent bean yields so far, with a few growers talking records. I know it’s still early, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the bean yield goes up a bit in October. While prices will be highly reactive to weather in South America this year, selling a few at $13 basis the board doesn’t seem like a bad idea. Old or new beans seem to be solid property due to this strong demand and production concerns.

DEMAND

Soybean export sales were impressive but off from a week ago at 1.702 mt. Basis was widening:

• My local beans: 40 under the Nov (5 cents wider)

• Decatur: 20 under the Nov (10 cents wider)

• River: 17 under the Nov (13 cents wider)

CASH BEANS

Cash beans were lower this week due to basis widening. While the markets were a bit higher, most took more basis as the grower was getting into harvest. I feel similar on beans as I do with corn. Selling some across the scale if they have to go to town is tough to argue with. If the beans are decent, it’s a solid profit at these levels. Storing a few beans commercially might be worth a try this year as any issues with global oilseed production could spur another strong rally. Storing some beans on the farm would be a good way to participate should a rally like that unfold. We’re in a good spot here where prices are today, but as always there are no guarantees we see prices stay here. Taking a hedgers mindset isn’t a bad thing, especially at prices better than we’ve seen in years.

2027 BEANS

Nov 2027 beans settled at $12.65 ¾, up 10 ¼ on the week. New-crop beans continue to stay strong. A big reason is many feel beans need more acres for next year with this strong demand. Given wheat acres are likely to grow and corn needs more acres, bean prices may have to hang right in there. I keep pointing this out and will do so again-we planted over 5.5 million-acres more in 2026 when it comes to soybeans. We still are forecasted to end with a smaller stocks number than a year ago. This is impressive and suggests acres need to keep growing. With all this said, it’s tough to argue with someone wanting to hedge off 10-20% of their beans at the best levels we could hedge at a year out-in many years. If nothing else, we can put a floor in place and stay bullish as long as we want. Maybe the riskiest move is to do nothing?

Bean Market Theme: The bean market continues to see buying on dips. Maybe that subsides during harvest? Either way, selling some beans is tough to argue with at these prices.

As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure your break-evens and put your plan in place:

👉 https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0

Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.