September 9th Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

There are more people around us in the field every day, with most of them picking corn so far. With the temps so hot and humidity low-plus throw in some wind, the moisture levels have dropped like a bomb the last several days. We hand-shelled some 112-day corn on Tuesday morning, but it was still 24%. I doubt we run this week, but I’d really like to get some corn picked before cutting beans. Our beans are coming fast as well, with several of them all yellow at this point. I assume we’ll be starting in the next week or so, weather-dependent. The yields I’m hearing so far are centered on good corn but well off of records. Given many start with their best corn, I can only assume our yields this year will struggle to get to what we enjoyed a year ago. Keep me posted on how things turn out for you once you get in the field. For more on AgMarket, click here. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0

The markets opened back up on Monday night after a three-day weekend and saw some buying. While both corn and beans were up at times during the session, only beans were able to hold onto gains. Geo-political issues continue to keep the market on its toes, with the Black Sea region as well as Strait of Hormuz seemingly far from over. Outside markets likely had a mixed impact:

• The US Dollar settled down .368 at 98.782.
• October crude oil settled up 1.55 at 93.03.
• The DOW settled down 608 points at 52,832.

Corn – The corn market was up for part of the session but closed on the low end of the range. On Tuesday, December corn closed down 3 ¼ at $5.33 ½. This was 10 off the high and 1 ½ off the low. Corn export inspections were above expectations at 1.662 mmt. These shipments were also up from a solid number a week ago. The crop ratings decline to 57% good/excellent, well below the 64% from a year ago. Corn harvest was pegged at 5% complete vs the 5-year-average at 3%. The StoneX survey came out and showed a much bigger yield than we’ve been thinking since ProFarmer. At 182.9, StoneX is above the USDA by over 2 bushels while almost 10 bushels above PF. This September USDA report on Friday is a big one. Given the range of possibilities on yield, it could have a big impact. With that being said, a bearish report must still acknowledge big demand. If we wash out some of the longs and take prices lower, it likely increases demand even more. I’m not outright bullish, but we need a ton to go right in the world over the next few months. As always, keeping a protective mode when it comes to profit margins should be our goal. While I want some flex, selling at excellent prices is tough to beat. Dec27 corn settled down 1 ¾ at $5.34 ½.

Soybeans – Soybeans were well off the highs but settled with nice gains on the day. November beans settled up 6 ½ at $13.16 ¼. This was 5 off the high and 12 ¼ off the low. October soybean meal was down 4.9 at 343.3, while soy oil was up 1.33 at 70.22. Weekly inspections showed bean shipments at 422k mt, an increase from a week ago levels but lower than expectations. The bean crop was rated 58% good/excellent, the same as a week ago. The bean crop a year ago was rated 65% g/e. While ratings on beans would indicate the crop isn’t near as big as a year ago, the StoneX survey showed a crop at 53 bushels. This is certainly a big crop if it were to verify. Will USDA find low pod-counts like PF did, or will they see enough rain in August given what the beans look like? It’s a big question, but either way as growers, we have to understand what today’s prices do for our bottom-line. I wouldn’t want to see these levels get away from me. Nov27 beans settled at $12.66, up 10.

mbennett@agmarket.net

Matt Bennett

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